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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 7:29 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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Jules101 wrote:
Having just re read my post i stick with it for Andys game. I did not however give advice to everyone to deal more often than not i just played devils advocate and gave
the opposite advice to what had been given. What had been shown is how the editors want you to be viewed.


Absolutely. Sometimes, this is deliberately exaggerated; I can recall a player, Les, from a couple of years ago who posted here, got smashed to pieces (even by me, who is normally a tolerant and moderately conservative player) because the edit made him look like the orchestrator of some very cautious decisions indeed (most of which led to huge Banker wins), but then in his actual game he turned down £25,000 on £10/£100k, to leave with the tenner. By twisting his words from the wings, the editors made an already dramatic decision something quite astonishing to watch, and a huge talking point.

Quote:
I believe most of the players all say that are going to go on BUT once the money becomes real and it is your turn in the chair it is often a different story.


I think the average DoND contestant goes in with an idea of how they're going to play, get carried away in different directions - but usually towards going on, because there does seem to be encouragement to do so, what with Noel's phrasebook being slanted towards praising "courageous" risk-takers more than other types of player - while in the wings, and then get carried away in different directions again in the chair, but their anxiety at playing for real usually brings them back to a more cautious direction. I can well imagine others being the opposite, and taking adrenalin-fuelled No Deals that they later come to regret, but we don't tend to see many of those.

(Of course, going back to your first point - if most of the players are saying No Deal to look good to the producers, your Devil's Advocate view will almost certainly, by definition, be to advise a Deal. I cannot criticise you for that; even if it is dishonest, and you would advise a No Deal if on your own, you are merely cancelling out one dishonestly expressed view the other way.)

Quote:
I believe the show choses a wide variety or people, some safe some risk takers but when i was interviewed they did not seem to want those who would take the safe option, thats just my opinion of course.


Emphasis added, because that completely tallies with the idea that the producers are trying to persuade players into continuing (and studies in psychology suggest that people under pressure can be coerced into decisions far more unequivocally wrong than taking a questionable financial risk). I'll concede that I've been banging on about it since about episode 100, if not earlier, and was regularly derided for it in the forums when I became neurotic about it during about 2007. Some people still think I go way over the top; without going into detail, because this post is long enough, I think I react as much as I do for particular personal reasons.

Travis P thinks the opposite, that Endemol are picking conservative players. I'm going to agree and disagree at once. I think they are looking for aggressive, risk-taking contestants, but it's a secondary priority behind contestants with diverse backgrounds that viewers feel able to get behind, regardless of risk preferences of either player or viewer. Furthermore, society in general has changed its attitude to financial risk more than DoND has, so to pick a large string of highly aggressive players would sacrifice contestant diversity, and (thank goodness) the latter has been prioritised.

Summary of the game? It's a massive win, made to look far worse than it was by the fact a £250k win could scarcely have been more clearly telegraphed. When we're complaining about someone winning "only" £70,000, something special's happened.

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Jules101

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 7:39 pm    Author: Jules101    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2010 11:07 pm
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Very well put.

I ask Sobia how she would feel if she turned down £70k and had the £15 and vise versa. The important thing was what would she regret the most ?
She made her choice, is very happy with her choice and made a bloody great game to watch.
She is sitting at home now £70k better off as well as knowing she was one of the lucky few to be chosen to appear on Deal anyway.

It is easy to sit here behind a computer and say she shouldn't have done this/that/whatever in fact not even just Sobia but any player but when it is their lives and thier families who are affected in real life by whatever choice they make who are we to say they should or should not have made the choice they did.

I watched games when people were gutted and went home with nothing.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:21 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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For what it's worth, I'd have gone on at £70k, but I might have gone at £90k, and given that £250k was on the table I'd have been smashed to pieces almost as badly as Sobia here (probably worse, because I've got a reputation on here anyway). I would have taken £70k if it was £3k as the fallback, and £5k/£250k with a £70k fallback would have been difficult to decline too.

The strictly correct approach would be to make two lists, one of everything that £70k but not £15k will get you, and one of everything £250k but not £70k will get you. In real terms, you're risking the first list for a 50% chance of winning the second (as well as getting the first back). If you assign an arbitrary value to those lists, you can evaluate what you stand to win and lose in smaller terms. So if you assign a value of 6 to the first list, and 5 to the second, you're actually risking 6 to gain 5 if you No Deal, and therefore you shouldn't. If you assign a value of 4 to the first list, and 7 to the second, then you're risking 4 to gain 7 if you No Deal, and therefore you should. Ultimately, the whole game boils down to that in pure, cold economic logic. (Disclaimer: I am an Economics and Politics graduate.)

In practice, I don't think even I could make those lists under the pressure of the studio, and I'm the one who thought this idea up...

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
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Jules101

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:33 pm    Author: Jules101    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia

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For my game i just went on my gut instinct and something i always said to myself. I am unable to say what that is yet though as it may spoil my game.


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Mark

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:36 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia

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Well there is always the spoiler section. :)


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Jules101

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:41 pm    Author: Jules101    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia

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Its not that big a thing but i would rather not post any spoilers. Look how much it could have spoilt the game today if i had posted about Sobia ?


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Phil 09

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:41 pm    Author: Phil 09    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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Happy New Year everyone. :)

Agree with Julie as regarding the spoilers. The fun of the game is seeing how the end of each individuals show turns out, (unless you're a pilgrim or on the east or west wing then you'll most likely know anyway!) and as Noel has said a few times before... "It's not how you start, it's how you finish".

As regarding Sobia's game today. £70,000 is not to be sniffed at but the 50/50 chance of being the third quarter millionaire, or losing out on £55,000, I'd have probably done the same as Sobia and dealt. It sort of reminded me of Ramesh's game early last year. (March I think?)

Although as someone else has mentioned earlier regarding the 2-box offer, I thought the offer would have been around the £80,000/£85,000 mark.

I also agree with Julie as regarding those who have played and went home with not even pocket money. 30+ 1p winners so a £70,000 deal is up there with the better games and I've seen games where some have not gone that extra mile, and others who have gone too far and their game became a trainwreck.

One game springs to mind with a second offer deal. (Forgot his name but dealt at £21,000 I think?) and could have gone on to win £100,000. Even Noel looked shocked when the contestant said... (Paraphrasing slightly!) "People may think I'm nuts but 'DEAL!'"

He was right... He was nuts!

Phil.

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Jules101

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:49 pm    Author: Jules101    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia

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A second offer deal :shock: I didn't think that had been done yet, shows what i know :lol: :lol:


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:50 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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Nobody's ever taken the second offer, but there have been a few third-offer Deals in that territory. Wasn't Richard, was it? He had £100k in his box, the deal was for £22,500.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Phil 09

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:55 pm    Author: Phil 09    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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I remember it was an early offer and the figure was £20,000+ But Noel's facial expression said it all as if to say... "Do you know how to play this game?"

But I think you're right with his name. It's what happens when you reach 40. Memory becomes selective. :lol:

Phil.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:08 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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£70k was a low offer for the board. There have been enough £250k/£20k finishes that I always think the norm for that configuration is £90k-£100k so £250/£15k ought to be close to that. At the end of the day, £70k is a huge win.

For the record, in terms of the 2 coincidences (Julie's £250k sequence and the power 5 on the table).

The odds of a player having any box 3 days running (as I commented yesterday, I'm going to ignore the fact that the box happens to be the £250k) is 1 in 484.
The odds of a power 5 coming to the table 4 days running is (5/22)^4 is slightly lower at 1 in 374.81.

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Last edited by Simon F on Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Phil 09

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:25 pm    Author: Phil 09    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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Simon F wrote:
£70 was a low offer for the board.


A derisory offer. I'd have offered at least £70,000. :lol:

Phil.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:36 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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Phil 09 wrote:
Simon F wrote:
£70 was a low offer for the board.


A derisory offer. I'd have offered at least £70,000. :lol:

Phil.


Touche and corrected now.

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willrelf

PostPosted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:43 pm    Author: willrelf    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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I would have taken the £70,000 without a doubt, personally.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 12:22 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia

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Very much a game of two halves, it started off very fluffy and light with a bubbly contestant and Noel on good form (his chats with Derrick are currently a highlight of the show), then slowly but surely it started to get serious.

To be honest i thought Sobia was going to deal at 5 box, but when she turned down old faithful i no longer knew what to expect.

To my mind £70k seemed a little on the low side, given that some players have been offered that or more on a blue/£250,000 finish. On paper it seems like a no brainer, in practice I guess it's a lot harder and it shows once again how good the Banker is at reading the players.

An amazing game nonetheless. And Jules says that Sobia is happy with what she won, at the end of the day I think that's all that matters.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 12:27 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia

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Wow, a lot to talk about with this game, alas a lot of it has been covered by most people already, especially from KP. It's hard to be disappointed with a £70k win or to criticise anyone for dealing an amount that it truly a life-changing sum. Most players who work on the theory of utility, or even if they don't consciously think of this theory, would reckon £70k twice as useful as £15k, I think. £250k, however for a lot of people would be more than twice as useful as £70k, so the scales of finance would point towards going for it. £70k can get you lots of things, but £250k can get you lots and lots and lots of things. As that's as far as the brain concept goes for the moment, the idea of actually having even the lower amount of £70k seems insane at the moment. You've just played a game and someone is offering you £70k for it!

I guess what I'm saying is it's a question of rationality; the rational decision, arguably, based on probably 90% of people's utility calculations viewing rather than playing the game, would be to go for it, the irrational mind (which sounds a bit cruel given she took £70k!) was probably the one Sobia had at the time, all eyes on her in a high-pressure environment with a somewhat clouded vision of her utility curve and numbers to work with that were more astonomical than she could ever have imagined. I don't blame her for reaching that decision, if you're not tuned into utility theory, it's an easy 'trap' to fall into into.

Ridiculous that we are criticising someone who won £70k, but in gameplay terms it was a missed opportunity.

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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 2:29 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia

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Simon F wrote:

For the record, in terms of the 2 coincidences (Julie's £250k sequence and the power 5 on the table).

The odds of a player having any box 3 days running (as I commented yesterday, I'm going to ignore the fact that the box happens to be the £250k) is 1 in 484.
The odds of a power 5 coming to the table 4 days running is (5/22)^4 is slightly lower at 1 in 374.81.


That's the point though. These statistics are completely and utterly meaningless. As far as a game of DOND goes they mean absolutely nothing. A lot of people (not saying that you can't, you obviously can) can't get their heads around the fact that previous events in these instances have no bearing on current events.

It's just done subconsciously by most people, and they won't read anything into it. A nice example is a casino roulette table. A lot of them have video screens showing you the previous numbers. This information is pointless and absolutely of no use to the player. All the player needs to know is that there is a 1/37 chance of landing on each number. That's it. The wheel has no memory. Just because it has come red 10 times in a row doesn't mean it's gonna be black next time. It's 50/50 (ish, ignoring the 0 on the wheel). But people DO read into this and start to notice "patterns". As a result they bet bigger. There's a reason casinos put these signs up..

Same applies to DOND. So comments along the lines of "well i've had it two times in a row. the chances of me having it again are really small." No, it's 1/22. The same chance as any other box. The fact you've already had it two days in a row is perhaps an unlikely occurance, but it doesn't change the chances next time. To hammer the point home.

Day 1. Chance of having £250,000 3 days in a row before you've selected a box: 22 * 22 * 22 = 1 in 10648

Day 2. Chance of having £250,000 3 days in a row before you've selected a box and you DID have it yesterday: 22 * 22 = 1 in 484
Day 2. Chance of having £250,000 3 days in a row before you've selected a box and you did NOT have it yesterday (this of course requires us to go to day 4. chance in this 3 game block is obv 0) : 1 in 10648

Day 3. Chance of having £250,000 3 days in a row before you've selected a box and you DID have it the previous TWO days: 1 in 22
Day 3. Chance of having £250,000 3 days in a row, you hold one of two boxes left, one of which is £250,000, and you DID have it the previous TWO days: 1 in 2
Day 3. Chance of having £250,000 3 days in a row, you hold one of two boxes left, one of which is £250,000, and you DID NOT have it yesterday: 1 in 2
Day 3. Chance of having £250,000 3 days in a row, you hold one of two boxes left, one of which is £250,000, and you DID have it the previous ONE MILLION days: 1 in 2

Human beings are good at detecting patterns and basing decisions about various things in life on them. Statistics is one area you need to be careful in. In independent events there are no patterns.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 10:58 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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I know the statistics I gave are meaningless but the fact that Noel made a big deal about one of the sequences continuing meant I felt I should point out that both were fairly equally unlikely.

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wkd

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 1:03 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia

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Don't know how I felt about that.

26k was awful at five box. 80% chance of a significant red in the box. Worst case scenario producing an offer of around 6k perhaps. 60% chance of knocking out last blue and guaranteeing at least 15k and a huge offer if the 250k was still in play.

Nevertheless, the decision to play on was based not on the stats but on fey rubbish about positivity and what happened yesterday.

As for 2 box....I'd have gone on in a nano-second; the bankers offer was poor but vindicated by its acceptance; surprised that Sobia took it but 55k is a big drop so who can criticise?


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bb67

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 2:51 pm    Author: bb67    Post subject: Re: 05/01 Sobia
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I honestly don't think the £250k will be won again due to huge opportunities like that not being taken. I mean come on how many times do folk go on about its their destiny to win it, walk away and guess what, its in their box. :?

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