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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:48 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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Hmm tough offer...

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:48 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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That is interesting says John. The Banker says the gamble paid off for John, he now wants John's wife to influence him here to take the next offer!

Banker's offer:

£21,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:51 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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John's daughter says if she was sat at home watching someone else playing and with this board she would be sat there telling them to take the money, but now sat in the studio she is tempted to say play on. John asks the pilgrims who would deal, he then asks the wings as well.

John says

DEAL

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:51 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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And he deals...

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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Round 6 - Proveout round

19 - £20,000 Darren

14 - £75,000 Jen

John picks Haroon with box 7 as he has been having some large reds lately, but Noel stops him and says that if he is choosing Haroon because he thinks he has a large red he will have to choose the other box, as he should be playing on with honesty and he wouldn't choose Haroon and would have gone for box 8 instead.

8 - £5 Ant

Banker time with £50 and £50,000 remaining

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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What a round...Banker's Gamble anyone?

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H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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This is a good game says John.

Banker's offer would've been:

£18,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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Noel opens John's box 3 and reveals £50,000

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:54 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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Nope...and now I wish it was a Banker's Gamble, £50,000 thrown away! :smt009

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 5:55 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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Box 7 with Haroon contains the £50

John says he has really enjoyed his time on the show and thanks everyone for their support. The Banker calls and asks for John's picture, and then thanks John for saving him some money.

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 8:19 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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Oh now that's clever. "Ashley proved the game isn't over until the last box is actually opened." We've seen similar turns of phrase used on here to justify aggressive gameplay...

John misses box 8! And it might well have worked out for the best; that is a stunning opening round. Inevitable opening offer. Inevitable collapse after the top two go in succession.

After a spectacularly good and spectacularly bad round one after the other, round three is tame in comparison, with the expected one sizeable hit. John is already guaranteed a fiver, which may or may not be an important point. Not a good offer.

Oh now this is interesting. The middle three blues, a high blue, then two pairs of five-figure reds. The Banker is right to point out this is tricky, but with the mean at twenty grand and a tiddly bit, offering half that - less the tiddly bit - is the moderately obvious play. With four higher, and little obvious disaster risk, I'd have to go on, but it's a better offer than it might at first look, because there's a 50% chance of being left with at least three blues, and hence at least a 30% disaster scenario, at five-box. Going on is the right decision, but note the exchange with his family, implying that John is one of the many, many players who sees an aggressive game as worthwhile right up until they actually play for real.

The loose blue goes, that's good... hello? Seven-box offer! With that, and the 'play the game' mention moments ago, it's clear that John has watched this show carefully, and internalised quite a lot of it. The offer is the right side of the median to be dealable, and I thought he'd take that given how it came about, but it's a good job he didn't; the next two boxes were survived, and now we have a cracking board. 10% disaster chance, 30% chance of an all-red finish. Exactly the right offer for the board, but I think that if you've turned down £16,000 you're probably best off going on here too. Oh his daughter has done the opposite of him and is more tempted to approve of a No Deal, make of that what you will. A Deal it is, fair enough.

Banker's Gamble is a painted-on certainty (pun intended) on blue/£75k if we get it... we don't, we get blue/£50k after Noel finally enforces proveout honesty for maybe the third time ever. No Gamble, just a standard generous two-box bailout, he's up three grand whatever's in here. It's fifty grand, but who cares. He took the highest amount that could be won from sensible play, and that's just about as good as an OPW in my book.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 9:13 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John
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A much better game than the last couple of days in terms of clever offers. 7-box and 5-box were both pitched perfectly and both decisions could have been justified in both cases (for the record at 5 box with 30% chances of an all red finish or at best a £20k/blue finish with the 40% chance being an offer relatively equal to that turned down, I think dealing was probably my preference).

Not sure why he missed box 8 from the first round but given but it wouldn't have made any difference to the game or the first offer.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 12:55 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 17/12 John

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A sensible deal, yes he had £50k in his box but only a reckless gambler would have taken on a £50 /£50,000 coin toss, the important thing is that John got out at the peak offer. And that for me is a good result!

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