Oh now that's clever. "Ashley proved the game isn't over until the last box is actually opened." We've seen similar turns of phrase used on here to justify aggressive gameplay...
John misses box 8! And it might well have worked out for the best; that is a stunning opening round. Inevitable opening offer. Inevitable collapse after the top two go in succession.
After a spectacularly good and spectacularly bad round one after the other, round three is tame in comparison, with the expected one sizeable hit. John is already guaranteed a fiver, which may or may not be an important point. Not a good offer.
Oh now this is interesting. The middle three blues, a high blue, then two pairs of five-figure reds. The Banker is right to point out this is tricky, but with the mean at twenty grand and a tiddly bit, offering half that - less the tiddly bit - is the moderately obvious play. With four higher, and little obvious disaster risk, I'd have to go on, but it's a better offer than it might at first look, because there's a 50% chance of being left with at least three blues, and hence at least a 30% disaster scenario, at five-box. Going on is the right decision, but note the exchange with his family, implying that John is one of the many, many players who sees an aggressive game as worthwhile right up until they actually play for real.
The loose blue goes, that's good... hello? Seven-box offer! With that, and the 'play the game' mention moments ago, it's clear that John has watched this show carefully, and internalised quite a lot of it. The offer is the right side of the median to be dealable, and I thought he'd take that given how it came about, but it's a good job he didn't; the next two boxes were survived, and now we have a cracking board. 10% disaster chance, 30% chance of an all-red finish. Exactly the right offer for the board, but I think that if you've turned down £16,000 you're probably best off going on here too. Oh his daughter has done the opposite of him and is more tempted to approve of a No Deal, make of that what you will. A Deal it is, fair enough.
Banker's Gamble is a painted-on certainty (pun intended) on blue/£75k if we get it... we don't, we get blue/£50k after Noel finally enforces proveout honesty for maybe the third time ever. No Gamble, just a standard generous two-box bailout, he's up three grand whatever's in here. It's fifty grand, but who cares. He took the highest amount that could be won from sensible play, and that's just about as good as an OPW in my book.
_________________ Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat. Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted. "Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables) I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me. In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.
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