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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:13 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Banker's offer:

£21,000

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:13 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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3 reds, 1 blue. Deja vu from Friday.

£20k here?

Nope £21k

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thundercat

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:13 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie

Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:51 pm
Warnings: 0
Boxes left: 4 :roll:
Offer: £21,000
Mean: £27,512.50
Median: £17,500
Fair offer £18,552.36
Volatility 2.14

Here we go again.. another 4 box offer. £21,000 isn't anywhere near what it should be with just 1 to open


Board:
£50

£15,000
£20,000
£75,000

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:14 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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I'd have gone the one more at £15k, though I think I'd have dealt otherwise. Can we just make 4-box and 3-box offers permanent already if they are so desired?

£21k here is just about enough, because I'm not trusting the offer to not be messed with if I hit any red.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Last edited by KP on Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:14 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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So we're looking at 2 boxes offers of £40k, £35k, £20k, £17k, £8k, £6k. Average of £21k.

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Mark

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:15 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
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More chance of a red in her box. Just got to be brave and go for it.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:15 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
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thundercat wrote:
Boxes left: 4 :roll:
Offer: £21,000
Mean: £27,512.50
Median: £17,500
Fair offer £18,552.36
Volatility 2.14

Here we go again.. another 4 box offer. £21,000 isn't anywhere near what it should be with just 1 to open


Board:
£50

£15,000
£20,000
£75,000


It's 2 to open now.

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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:15 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Annie now thinks she has the £75,000, but wonders what the £21,000 would do for her. She runs through what she could do with the £21,000. The Banker calls and thinks that Annie is close to a deal. The Banker then says he will keep Annie's photo, but then cut it up into little pieces and set fire to it, but if Annie deals he will let her keep her photo.

Annie says

DEAL

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:16 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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And I'm definitely gone with two to open - 50% chance the blue remains, and even if it's with £75k I expect a drop (unless it's a 'rewarding courage' £26k, which in proveout of course it will be).

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:16 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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Given the roulette scenario, there's a BG coming if the £75k isn't found.

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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:16 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Round 6 - Continued - Proveout

7 - £20,000 Danielle

19 - £50 Jan

Banker time with £15,000 and £75,000 remaining

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:17 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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But not with the £15k as backup. It's Friday's game all over again.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:17 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Forgot - blue/£75k was made for the Banker's Gamble.

Here, we'll get £42k.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:17 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Banker's offer would've been:

£42,000

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'Take your hands out of your pockets!' Noel to H2005 23/03/09 :P

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thundercat

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:18 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie

Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:51 pm
Warnings: 0
Boxes left: 2
Offer: £42,000
Mean: £45,000
Median: £45,000
Fair offer £39,270.51


Board:
£15,000

£75,000

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:18 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
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Shall we just link to Friday's thread now and save us all repeating the conversation?

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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:18 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Noel opens Annie's box 2 and reveals £15,000

Box 22 with Antonio contains the £75,000

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thundercat

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:19 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie

Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:51 pm
Warnings: 0
Box contents: £15,000
Peak offer: £42,000
Winnings: £21,000
Result: Technical draw (50-50)

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Last edited by thundercat on Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:20 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Yay, a technical draw! Fitting result; both sides will be happy with this game.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:22 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 05/12 Annie
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
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Like Friday, a fascinating game. At least today, the player asked for the extra offer. Precident seems to be that the banker has never destroyed a personal item that the player has brought and he has purchased so that oughtn't to have been a factor.

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Number of shows seen: 86


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