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"Olympia is afraid people will think she is a nutcase!" Well it doesn't matter why you pick the right boxes, just that you do. Spiritual players like Olympia are always more difficult to predict; even if you think you've got their utility curve handled, you can't bank on them playing to it. The opening offer is almost mediocre by recent standards, although it's on the high side historically.
Nasty second round, enlivened by a fine gag; we are already down to five reds, although it should be noted that the lowest two of these are £10,000 and £20,000. Olympia hints at a desire to play for a Power 5 sum, without truly confirming it.
Round 3 roughly follows the script, two blues and the middle of the five reds; Noel tells Olympia to stop being so realistic. The producer senses that Olympia might be amenable to a deal at this point, so he makes sure that none is forthcoming by sticking at £NO_DEAL.
And out of nowhere, an all-blue round, and we've got four sizeable reds at the ADP - probably an average board, frankly. Maybe Noel had a point this time. The Banker overstates the fragility of the board, recognising that Olympia is likely to play this with her heart more than her head, and offers the fourth-highest amount. Fifteen grand sounds about right as a tipping point to me, I'm surprised thundercat is willing to say the same. Big mistake from Antonio; if this is, say, a £5/£750/£10k round, the board will have dramatically improved in value, but the offer will reflect the 1p. He might regret that.
Oh, OK, two other blues and the £75k. This ought to go up from ten grand, but now won't. Oh, OK, it goes up by a trivial amount. Again I'd want fifteen grand here; the board's somewhat more volatile, the mean's inched up, but it's only a 10% outright disaster chance. "Olympia says that she doesn't want to lose everything", then promptly risks just that. Will she regret that? Not if the Banker offers a four-box bailout from nowhere! I'd ask to see if there's a three-box offer coming, but I might take that. Olympia's not sure, she seeks advice... if in doubt, Deal. And she does. Good play, in the end.
LOL, a three-box hypothetical just because it would have been higher. Wouldn't have happened if the £100k had gone. Kes, it's bad enough that it was a £20,000 / £100,000 finish after a sensible Deal, but a £20,0000 / £100,000 finish? Imagine how much of a guilt trip Noel would put on if the fallback amount suddenly multiplied by ten after a Deal. [Note to Endemol. This is not an idea.]
Sensible Deal, clearly above-average win, deserved a better proveout. Second game in a row where that's happened!
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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.
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FAQ
Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:41 pm Author: thundercat Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
Nat
No dealing at 5 box may as well never be a gamble with the potential chance of the banker halting the game when he wants.
