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thundercat

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:41 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia

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Stats at 8 box
Mean: £25,731.88
Median: £5,375
Absolute Balance: 6
Significant Balance: 5/8, 1
FD: £11,860.10
Volatility: 0.94
Offer: £10,000

Board:
1p/£5/£100/£750
£10,000/£20,000/£75,000/£100,000

Back on track, would be looking for about £15,000 here

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:43 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Olympia's husband says it is 50/50 at the moment, but Olympia should enjoy herself, which she is doing at the moment. Antonio tells Olympia if she plays on she has to find the 1p in the next round.

Olympia says

NO DEAL

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:45 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Round 5

Back to plan A for Olympia as she feels the boxes again.

21 - £100 Newbie Brian

4 - £75,000 AJ

11 - £750 Detrix

Banker time

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:46 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Noel points out the 1p is still there. The Banker says it wasn't a disaster, but it wasn't great and there is still the chance of joining the 1p club

Banker's offer:

£10,444

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thundercat

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:47 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia

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Stats at 8 box
Mean: £26,001
Median: £10,000
Absolute Balance: 2
Significant Balance: 3/5
FD: £12,543.34
Volatility: 3.33
Offer: £10,444

Board:
1p/£5
£10,000/£20,000/£100,000

Noel's emphasis on the 1p is starting to annoy me, it's only any other blue. Offer is ok but a no deal nonetheless with the rock and £10,000 backup on the £100,000.

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:48 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Olympia feels her box but doesn't tell Noel what she feels. Olympia says that she doesn't want to lose everything.

Olympia says

NO DEAL

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:50 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Round 6

22 - 1p :D Nat

The perfect start says Noel. The Banker calls and says 'At O, that has transformed the board!'

The Banker doesn't want Olympia to play on and makes an offer!

Banker's offer:

£20,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:51 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Noel says that the Banker is looking to cut his loses now that the 1p has gone. Olympia goes to her husband as she doesn't know what to do now.

Olympia says

DEAL

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thundercat

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:51 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia

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Stats at 4 box
Mean: £32,501.25
Median: £15,000
FD: £19,591.96
Offer: £20,000

Board:
£5
£10,000/£20,000/£100,000

Removal of the 1p has denied disaster and banker jokes, 25% of an all red final 3.

And whats this? A 4 box offer? Are they just pulling rules out of nowhere :S

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thundercat

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:52 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia

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This is a complete an utter joke, nearly as bad as PJ's game

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Round 6 - Continued - (Proveout)

17 - £10,000 Annie

The Banker calls again and says he would have called and said please don't open the last box and offered £30,000 to leave now!

15 - £5 Jan

Banker time with £20,000 and £100,000 remaining

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Wow, what a game says Noel.

Banker's offer would've been:

£50,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Noel opens Olympia's box 9 and reveals £20,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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Box 14 with Ashley contains the £100,000

I was destined to have the £20,000 says Olympia.

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thundercat

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:55 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia

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Stats at 2 box

Mean: £60,000
Median: £60,000
FD: £52,360.68
Offer: £50,000

Board: £20,000/£100,000

And 20k in the box which is still a TBW yes? Utterly shocking that they are just making rules as they go along :? No dealing at 5 box may as well never be a gamble with the potential chance of the banker halting the game when he wants.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:58 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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That wasn't very wise of Olympia to deal at that point...an interrupted round with the banker should NEVER be used as an excuse to save the show money! :(

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:01 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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"Olympia is afraid people will think she is a nutcase!" Well it doesn't matter why you pick the right boxes, just that you do. Spiritual players like Olympia are always more difficult to predict; even if you think you've got their utility curve handled, you can't bank on them playing to it. The opening offer is almost mediocre by recent standards, although it's on the high side historically.

Nasty second round, enlivened by a fine gag; we are already down to five reds, although it should be noted that the lowest two of these are £10,000 and £20,000. Olympia hints at a desire to play for a Power 5 sum, without truly confirming it.

Round 3 roughly follows the script, two blues and the middle of the five reds; Noel tells Olympia to stop being so realistic. The producer senses that Olympia might be amenable to a deal at this point, so he makes sure that none is forthcoming by sticking at £NO_DEAL.

And out of nowhere, an all-blue round, and we've got four sizeable reds at the ADP - probably an average board, frankly. Maybe Noel had a point this time. The Banker overstates the fragility of the board, recognising that Olympia is likely to play this with her heart more than her head, and offers the fourth-highest amount. Fifteen grand sounds about right as a tipping point to me, I'm surprised thundercat is willing to say the same. Big mistake from Antonio; if this is, say, a £5/£750/£10k round, the board will have dramatically improved in value, but the offer will reflect the 1p. He might regret that.

Oh, OK, two other blues and the £75k. This ought to go up from ten grand, but now won't. Oh, OK, it goes up by a trivial amount. Again I'd want fifteen grand here; the board's somewhat more volatile, the mean's inched up, but it's only a 10% outright disaster chance. "Olympia says that she doesn't want to lose everything", then promptly risks just that. Will she regret that? Not if the Banker offers a four-box bailout from nowhere! I'd ask to see if there's a three-box offer coming, but I might take that. Olympia's not sure, she seeks advice... if in doubt, Deal. And she does. Good play, in the end.

LOL, a three-box hypothetical just because it would have been higher. Wouldn't have happened if the £100k had gone. Kes, it's bad enough that it was a £20,000 / £100,000 finish after a sensible Deal, but a £20,0000 / £100,000 finish? Imagine how much of a guilt trip Noel would put on if the fallback amount suddenly multiplied by ten after a Deal. [Note to Endemol. This is not an idea.]

Sensible Deal, clearly above-average win, deserved a better proveout. Second game in a row where that's happened!

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thundercat

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:01 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia

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If the banker never halted the game at his own choice she would have had no choice other than to continue and reach the dream finish (at the time) £20,000/£100,000, if the banker is really one of the production team they completely cocked that up today. If she swapped that would have been a fantastic £100,000 win. Perhaps this was a money saving move :roll:

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:06 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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My thoughts exactly...so much for sticking to the rules, Endemol

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H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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Tall Paul

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:06 pm    Author: Tall Paul    Post subject: Re: 03/12 Olympia
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thundercat wrote:
If the banker never halted the game at his own choice she would have had no choice other than to continue and reach the dream finish (at the time) £20,000/£100,000, if the banker is really one of the production team they completely cocked that up today. If she swapped that would have been a fantastic £100,000 win. Perhaps this was a money saving move :roll:


At least she didn't lose, of which is a good thing. :-D

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