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JS Boy

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:31 pm    Author: JS Boy    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

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thundercat wrote:
JS Boy wrote:
thundercat wrote:
JS Boy wrote:
Ah, but how do we know he could have got the £250k James? In live play he would have been offered the swap, which he might have taken, they didn't offer a "hypethetical" swap, so we will never know.
Oh and Alexander..., your comment could be construed by some people as bullying. I actually thought it about a 50/50 decision or maybe 60/40 in his favour that he would get more at the next offer, given his circumstances, the deal was fairly understandable.


Rather than viewing the game as the contestant winning £44,000 and 'thats ok anyway', some of us on here try and view each game in a little more detail. Despite the money he (in my opinion undeservedly) won, the decision to deal was atrocious based on, mainly, the fact the only chance of significant loss was 10%, or in your preffered expression, 10/90... he had a 90% chance, or shall we say 90/10 in his favour, of at least around £25,000, based on a £1,000/£75,000 finish (where the mean is £38,000). These are rare odds and was such an opportunity thrown away (not to mention him being in posession of the top prize) for such an awful 5 box offer that probably Beryl would have declined


You do me a disservice, I do like to view the game in detail (and having studied staistics I am fascinated how the game changes from 11 box onwards), but as I said in another post the Banker's offers are on his whim, i.e. there are no guarantees. I too am sometimes dismayed at some of the poor deals contestants go away with; this was not particularly one of them - certainly a bit soft but not "atrocious"


I was basing my 2 box offer calculations on previous offers the banker has made on that situation in the past. When I say a 90% chance of £25,000, that £25,000 is the least I would expect on £1,000/£75,000, the 2nd 'worst' scenario at 2 box. These odds alone would lead me to no deal at 5 box, along with the exceptional 50% chance of a 40k climb to at least 85k at 2 box and a 30% chance of a 6 figure offer. (And more importantly a 30% chance of being guaranteed a 75k box win, at least)

Yes he hit the 10% chance of £75,000/£250,000, but that as well as £10,000/£250,000, and £100,000/£250,000 should have given a 6 figure offer (dismissing Davids 70k offer on £10,000/£250,000 as that was before any jackpot win had happened). These are very healthy odds and with no blue value in sight and an offer a measly half of the average it would indeed say it was an atrocious deal.


But as you point it when you compare the offer with Ian's game at 5 box, basing next offers on this basis is not reliable and as I said you are at the Bnaker's whim. The other notion I have is that I am convinced the Banker knows what is in all of the boxes and sometimes the offers are either low or high to either manufacture a nice feel good win that makes good TV or not if the player appears undeserving to the producers


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unclekevo

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:39 pm    Author: unclekevo    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Glenn
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I wish Kim has got this game *sigh*

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beaker

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:33 pm    Author: beaker    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Glenn
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Only just watched this game and I can't believe he dealt there at 5 box. That was a no-brainer of a decision


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trancematics

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:50 pm    Author: trancematics    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Glenn
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Dealing has been the ruination of this show.

I could have smashed the telly. Except its not mine.

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:09 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Glenn

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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trancematics wrote:
Dealing has been the ruination of this show.

I could have smashed the telly. Except its not mine.


Hello, Basicasic!!! ;-)

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:20 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Glenn
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This deal was worth it after all, that is sheer comic gold!

Oh if you think that's funny James, just read his one and only previous post on here!!!

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:46 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Glenn

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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I already had. :-D

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Dec 02, 2010 1:13 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Glenn
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trancematics wrote:
Dealing has been the ruination of this show.

I could have smashed the telly. Except its not mine.


BAD dealing is the ruination of the show. Without dealing, it's a 30 second game where the player opens 1 random box and takes away its contents.

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