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mr_northern_guy

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:11 pm    Author: mr_northern_guy    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:26 pm
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What do you believe, the QM comes to the table 2 St. Andrew's days in a row, and both times the players have blown it!

Sometimes I wonder about Deal.....


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greeny

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:33 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

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mr_northern_guy wrote:
What do you believe, the QM comes to the table 2 St. Andrew's days in a row, and both times the players have blown it!

Sometimes I wonder about Deal.....


Same box number as well

Personally, I thought 44k was way too low for the board - I'd have been looking for at least 60k.


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paulyc

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:39 pm    Author: paulyc    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:28 pm
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There was only one real major drop scenario and that would have been the 1k 10k at 2 box. A few in between with 1k 75k, maybe about 20k; or 10k 75k, maybe about the 30k mark? Anything else the offers would have been about the same if not more - 1k 100k probably about 40k again. So really the board was tipped in his favour. So that was one heck of a board to walk away from, even for 44k.


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JS Boy

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:54 pm    Author: JS Boy    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

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The offers are at the banker's whim, so the only scenarios that guarantees more is 75k and 100k; 75k and 250k; 100k and 250k, so a 3 in 10 shot


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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 10:19 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11
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JS Boy wrote:
The offers are at the banker's whim, so the only scenarios that guarantees more is 75k and 100k; 75k and 250k; 100k and 250k, so a 3 in 10 shot


You have to add the £250k/£10k and £250k/£1k to that list. Even Laura got more than that and I doubt they would try and manufacture a 3rd QM-aire.

Statistically, this was a very winable QM today. I know 5th deal £75k Amy had less money on her board but a higher minimum win but to offer over £30k less was stingy by the banker. The EV at 5-box for the 2-box offer was close to £70k by my calculations.

I think the 2-box decision might have been tougher than the 2-box one (was expecting it to be at least £150k)

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 10:36 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11
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Simon, I don't know about you, but I thought £144,000 was blatantly obviously coming...it just fitted

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JS Boy

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:19 pm    Author: JS Boy    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

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Simon F wrote:
JS Boy wrote:
The offers are at the banker's whim, so the only scenarios that guarantees more is 75k and 100k; 75k and 250k; 100k and 250k, so a 3 in 10 shot


You have to add the £250k/£10k and £250k/£1k to that list. Even Laura got more than that and I doubt they would try and manufacture a 3rd QM-aire.

Statistically, this was a very winable QM today. I know 5th deal £75k Amy had less money on her board but a higher minimum win but to offer over £30k less was stingy by the banker. The EV at 5-box for the 2-box offer was close to £70k by my calculations.

I think the 2-box decision might have been tougher than the 2-box one (was expecting it to be at least £150k)


If my memory serves, Laura was offered 45k on 3k and 250k left, so, possibly not that offered on 250k and 1k, even if more than 44k were to be offered on both those scenarios you mention, it still is a 50/50 probability of getting more than the 44k deal. I suspect those that think it was a poor deal do not have 2 pennies to rub together. As a somebody once said "there will always be be poor people"


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thundercat

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:21 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:51 pm
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Most spectacular part of this game was the very strong all red final five, with a mean of around £87,000. Such a board is very rare and after the recent series of boring mediocre low wins it is INCREDIBLY FRUSTRATING for someone to deal at HALF of the average, on such a very strong board with only a 10% chance of significant loss at a likely £5,000 offer on the worst case £1,000/£10,000 finish... (hardly peanuts either)

Doing a quick jot up he had a 60% chance of an increase, 50% chance of SIGNIFICANT increase (at least 40k more)!!!, 80% chance of a 2 box offer of at least around £35,000 (not far off his original 5 box offer!), and 90% chance of a 2 box offer of at least £25,000... (based on £1,000/£75,000)

With these statistics in mind.. and the awful offer on the table.. it was such a clear cut no deal. I have always despised of the banker ringing back and slowly notching the offer up to psychologically increase its value, when it is still poor (see: kelsie). And with an incredibly powerful backup value at 2 box it would have surely been a 250k win.

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thundercat

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:32 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:51 pm
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JS Boy wrote:
Ah, but how do we know he could have got the £250k James? In live play he would have been offered the swap, which he might have taken, they didn't offer a "hypethetical" swap, so we will never know.
Oh and Alexander..., your comment could be construed by some people as bullying. I actually thought it about a 50/50 decision or maybe 60/40 in his favour that he would get more at the next offer, given his circumstances, the deal was fairly understandable.


Rather than viewing the game as the contestant winning £44,000 and 'thats ok anyway', some of us on here try and view each game in a little more detail. Despite the money he (in my opinion undeservedly) won, the decision to deal was atrocious based on, mainly, the fact the only chance of significant loss was 10%, or in your preffered expression, 10/90... he had a 90% chance, or shall we say 90/10 in his favour, of at least around £25,000, based on a £1,000/£75,000 finish (where the mean is £38,000). These are rare odds and was such an opportunity thrown away (not to mention him being in posession of the top prize) for such an awful 5 box offer that probably Beryl would have declined

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:41 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11
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You still hate Kathleen's game more though don't you?! :P

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thundercat

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:44 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

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Kathleens was bad, but believe me this is worse. Kathleen had near enough the same offer but the rock and £50,000 and one blue instead of £1,000, £10,000 and £75,000 with the two triple figure values present on both.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 12:01 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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Yes Glenn had pretty much a dream 5 box and there was definately plenty of incentive to go on there. But at the same time I can understand that £44k is a lot of money to turn down, especially for someone with a wedding on the horizon.

I don't neccessarily agree with Glenn's decision but i do respect it. He made the decision that felt right for him and that is all anyone can do. There are no guarantees and if he couldn't face the worst case scenario then it would have been reckless to continue.

I do wonder if he would have made the same decision though if his Fiancee hadn't been there to ground him.

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 12:01 am    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11
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And before the Guru has my guts for garters, I better correct myself: it was Ian, not Alan who had the identical board from Christmas (I always get the two names mixed up, given I saw Alan's game live)

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thundercat

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 12:03 am    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

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Thanks to davey for reminding me of Ians game. Probably the best example to place todays game against.

Ians board: £1,000/£3,000/£75,000/£100,000/£250,000 Offer = £71,000
Glenns... : £1,000/£10,000/£75,000/£100,000/£250,000 Offer = £44,000 :S Clearly Ian has the worser of the 2 but he is offered £27,000 more?

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 12:07 am    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11
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Like I said earlier though, it might well have been because it was a Christmas Star show...but even so, as someone else mentioned; Amy got an offer of £75,000 with an almost-as-strong board which didn't include the £100,000!

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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 12:34 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11
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thundercat wrote:
I have always despised of the banker ringing back and slowly notching the offer up to psychologically increase its value, when it is still poor (see: kelsie). And with an incredibly powerful backup value at 2 box it would have surely been a 250k win.


The banker only rang once. Noel did his increasing offer trick (which is actually easily to spot as he usually says something like "how would you feel about.....").

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 12:52 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11
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In honesty I think most players lose any sense of moderate play on a board that good - some are lured on to gamble almost anything, like Daniel when he had the top four and £750, while most get intimidated by the offer even if it's weak for the board. Glenn was the latter. The only thing that makes this one stand out is the ending, which implied this was perhaps a once-a-year opportunity for the first ever £250k win requiring neither reckless gambling nor a deux ex machina - and I've actually seen worse. Most people don't remember JT dealing £39k on Kathleen's final five with a better blue because he got an OPW from it, and very few remember Rachel from the first week Dealing £25k on the Kelsie final five, which as bad Deals go may only have been topped about five times in as many years! (She hit the £250k and the blues to leave a £20k/£75k finish, hypo £40k, £20k in the box.)

I'd value this board at £60k, for what it's worth. £70k as a two-box EV sounds about right. I just wish he'd left the £1,000 to the end, so that we could claim only naively aggressive players could have won the £250k (I'd presume £88k as the offer there, doubling again and also referencing the last two 1p/£250k finishes).

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JS Boy

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 2:37 pm    Author: JS Boy    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2009 7:32 pm
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thundercat wrote:
JS Boy wrote:
Ah, but how do we know he could have got the £250k James? In live play he would have been offered the swap, which he might have taken, they didn't offer a "hypethetical" swap, so we will never know.
Oh and Alexander..., your comment could be construed by some people as bullying. I actually thought it about a 50/50 decision or maybe 60/40 in his favour that he would get more at the next offer, given his circumstances, the deal was fairly understandable.


Rather than viewing the game as the contestant winning £44,000 and 'thats ok anyway', some of us on here try and view each game in a little more detail. Despite the money he (in my opinion undeservedly) won, the decision to deal was atrocious based on, mainly, the fact the only chance of significant loss was 10%, or in your preffered expression, 10/90... he had a 90% chance, or shall we say 90/10 in his favour, of at least around £25,000, based on a £1,000/£75,000 finish (where the mean is £38,000). These are rare odds and was such an opportunity thrown away (not to mention him being in posession of the top prize) for such an awful 5 box offer that probably Beryl would have declined


You do me a disservice, I do like to view the game in detail (and having studied staistics I am fascinated how the game changes from 11 box onwards), but as I said in another post the Banker's offers are on his whim, i.e. there are no guarantees. I too am sometimes dismayed at some of the poor deals contestants go away with; this was not particularly one of them - certainly a bit soft but not "atrocious"


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Kaledmutant

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 2:53 pm    Author: Kaledmutant    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11
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RMF1254 wrote:
I WISH NOEL WOULD F***ING STOP PLAYING AROUND WITH THE OFFERS!!!!! :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

I don't find it funny at all, and nor do I think it's a good way of creating suspense and excitement.

Who agrees with me?



I certainly do. Noel's interventions and his own "mind games" are childish and annoying and one of the reasons I no longer watch the show very often but simply get the goss from this brilliant site.


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thundercat

PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 4:15 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: Glenn 30/11

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JS Boy wrote:
thundercat wrote:
JS Boy wrote:
Ah, but how do we know he could have got the £250k James? In live play he would have been offered the swap, which he might have taken, they didn't offer a "hypethetical" swap, so we will never know.
Oh and Alexander..., your comment could be construed by some people as bullying. I actually thought it about a 50/50 decision or maybe 60/40 in his favour that he would get more at the next offer, given his circumstances, the deal was fairly understandable.


Rather than viewing the game as the contestant winning £44,000 and 'thats ok anyway', some of us on here try and view each game in a little more detail. Despite the money he (in my opinion undeservedly) won, the decision to deal was atrocious based on, mainly, the fact the only chance of significant loss was 10%, or in your preffered expression, 10/90... he had a 90% chance, or shall we say 90/10 in his favour, of at least around £25,000, based on a £1,000/£75,000 finish (where the mean is £38,000). These are rare odds and was such an opportunity thrown away (not to mention him being in posession of the top prize) for such an awful 5 box offer that probably Beryl would have declined


You do me a disservice, I do like to view the game in detail (and having studied staistics I am fascinated how the game changes from 11 box onwards), but as I said in another post the Banker's offers are on his whim, i.e. there are no guarantees. I too am sometimes dismayed at some of the poor deals contestants go away with; this was not particularly one of them - certainly a bit soft but not "atrocious"


I was basing my 2 box offer calculations on previous offers the banker has made on that situation in the past. When I say a 90% chance of £25,000, that £25,000 is the least I would expect on £1,000/£75,000, the 2nd 'worst' scenario at 2 box. These odds alone would lead me to no deal at 5 box, along with the exceptional 50% chance of a 40k climb to at least 85k at 2 box and a 30% chance of a 6 figure offer. (And more importantly a 30% chance of being guaranteed a 75k box win, at least)

Yes he hit the 10% chance of £75,000/£250,000, but that as well as £10,000/£250,000, and £100,000/£250,000 should have given a 6 figure offer (dismissing Davids 70k offer on £10,000/£250,000 as that was before any jackpot win had happened). These are very healthy odds and with no blue value in sight and an offer a measly half of the average it would indeed say it was an atrocious deal.

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