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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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The banker says that was very brave.

Banker's offer:

£30,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:51 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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John talks about poker tactics and he thinks he has a better hand now, as odds are that he has a red in his box. His girlfriend worries about the £5 which is still on the board. John says he knows it's his day.

John says

DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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Round 6 (proveout)

10 - Danielle - £75,000

2 - Nat - £5

22 - Claire - £100,000

Banker time with £500 and £50,000 remaining...

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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Banker's offer would've been:

£22,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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John has £50,000 in his box 1.

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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Box 15 with Kirsty contains the £500

John says he loved it!

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travis P

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:19 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials

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Noel mentioned there are two guests for tomorrow's show. Since it will be featuring year three (Nov 2007-Oct 2008), I suspect it will be Clive and Orry. Long odds saying it would be Olly Murs and someone else.

I suspect Thursday and Friday's show will feature Laura and Lynn (first contestant).


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Brick

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:20 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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Always difficult to judge an offer on that board, it's the sort where there'll always be 3 numbers higher than the offer, so there'll always be an argument for going on. At two-thirds of the mean (or close enough), fair enough for John to deal.

A game where only the wakeyists and glory-hunters would claim an outright win.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:29 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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Indeed so, but that offer of £30,000 would've tempt a lot of the glory hunters

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RMF1254

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:44 pm    Author: RMF1254    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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h2005 wrote:
John now chooses box 6 which is in the VIP area with Alice and Fred. They will both guess what the contents of it are, and if one of them is right, John wins a holiday. Alice guesses £500 and Fred guesses £750.

6 - Fred (opened by Noel) - £1

John doesn't win the holiday.

John now gets an instant offer.


Not really liking this twist so far TBH.

No holidays have been won from it yet, with the net result that it just has the same mechanism as the Love Necklace from Love Week, and nothing more...

I'd have been tempted to go on at £30k, though I feel the final offer would have been less than £22k had John gone on.

And without any disrespect whatsoever, I didn't really like his girlfriend...

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 7:04 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials

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The intro to the show still drags on too long IMO and as RMF1254 notes the twist isn't really working. Funny how in February one person was able to guess the right amount 50% of the time but so far this week two people have been unable to do the same :lol:

Anyway, John had a good game and that 5 box offer was a really tough call, but ultimately i think he made the right decision

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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:00 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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Another good game. The offers from 14-box onwards were all very respectable and without the twist, most were dealable. John got a great result but for me, he wasted the twist of the extra offer. If you are going to pick it at 8-box, take out the lowest amount on the board and then no-deal, he might as well have saved it for the 7-box or 5 or 4 box.

Personally, I would have liked them to include to odd trivia question or stat between breaks for the anniversary shows.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:09 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials

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Yes it was, my calculator reckoned anything over £29k was takeable, both decisions justifiable there, although personally I would find it visually very tempting to go on, and it's very rare to have a 60% chance of £50k or more in your box. Although it would've gone a bit wrong had I gone on, I wouldn't be too disappointed to opt out at £22k having given it a shot.

It seems like they're trying to cram in a bit too much into this week's shows, the pacing is a bit weird and the twist, as other have intimated, isn't working great. I wonder if they might think about maybe extending the shows to an hour on a regular basis to negate this... :ponder:

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johnr

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:13 am    Author: johnr    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials

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4OD still think it's halloween :lol:


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 9:19 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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A curious game. I thought the eight-box offer was better than the one he took, and I'd have probably taken it I think, but it's difficult to read a board like that - very easy to play on too far, that's for sure.

At five-box, I'm thinking that any red/red pairing means you're offered the mean, the 10% disaster chance can be treated as zero, and then you have to second-guess the all-or-peanuts offer. £15k on blue/£50k, £20k on blue/£75k, and £25k on blue/£100k leads to an EV of: (£75k * 0.3) + (£25k * .2) + (£20k * .2) + (£15k * .2) = £22.5k + £5k + £4k + £3k = £34.5k, and I think that's absolutely marginal. If it's going to be £22k on blue/£50k it's an easy No Deal, but it's not. :D

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RMF1254

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 10:09 am    Author: RMF1254    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials
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Simon F wrote:
Personally, I would have liked them to include to odd trivia question or stat between breaks for the anniversary shows.


That's a fantastic idea! :D

The producers probably didn't even consider it, though...

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 11:31 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials

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StatsMan wrote:
It seems like they're trying to cram in a bit too much into this week's shows, the pacing is a bit weird and the twist, as other have intimated, isn't working great. I wonder if they might think about maybe extending the shows to an hour on a regular basis to negate this... :ponder:


Yes i'm not a fan of the 1 hour show as a rule but given how much they are trying to cram in i think this week would have benefitted.

Alice looked very different didn't she? She's grown her hair out a little. And how come nobody's told the VIP guests about the dress code?

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 2:44 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 23/11 John - 5th Birthday Week Specials

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To be honest I didn't think Alice suited long hair at all, I thought she looked way prettier when she was originally on........then on the other hand there's Kirsty. ;-)

I think John might have made a mistake playing Fred's box so early, if he'd kept it until after 5-box then he couldn't have had a 10% chance of total disaster. Also wasn't he supposed to be leaving Box 22 until the end, which had the £100k in it, then he picked it in proveout?

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