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halloween bryan

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 2:13 pm    Author: halloween bryan    Post subject: Re: 01/11 Christine

Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:26 pm
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Bit of a heart breaker for Christine. This was my last game at the studios before I toddled off home and she took at least 15 minutes to say Deal. She really wanted to go on and to be honest I think she should have followed her heart instead of her head. She only needed to keep one red until two box. Even £50,000 and a blue would have caused the banker to at least stick so I felt it was worth the risk. A big risk yes but at least she would have played the game the way she intended too. Still, £17k is a nice chunk of money (believe me!).


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 5:16 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 01/11 Christine
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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Doing the maths, as I know you love doing:

10% chance of what happened
30% chance of £100k/blue (I'd reckon on £26k)
30% chance of £50k/blue (I'll generously assume a stick - I could see a drop in active play)
30% chance of an all-blue finish

The expected two-box value is (10% of £70k) + (30% of £26k) + (30% of £17k) = £7k + £7.8k + £5.1k = £19.9k

With a 30% chance of disaster, that's not a particularly great premium on £17k, and that's based on a fairly optimistic assumption on the £50k-high finish. In practice, it'd have fallen if she was that uncertain about a No Deal, and she'd quite possibly have regretted a crash - which was three times as likely as what actually happened - at least as much, especially if she'd felt talked into it.

Especially because Jeron was talked into playing on and lost £9,750 as a result in the game immediately before.

Having said that, the Banker was out of order to revise the offer because she was going to turn it down - as far as I'm concerned that's cheating, and he'd have had a repeat of Christopher's finish if it weren't for that.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 12:06 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 01/11 Christine

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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halloween bryan wrote:
Bit of a heart breaker for Christine. This was my last game at the studios before I toddled off home and she took at least 15 minutes to say Deal. She really wanted to go on and to be honest I think she should have followed her heart instead of her head. She only needed to keep one red until two box. Even £50,000 and a blue would have caused the banker to at least stick so I felt it was worth the risk. A big risk yes but at least she would have played the game the way she intended too. Still, £17k is a nice chunk of money (believe me!).


Well done Bryan on an excellently played game - I was watching in the front row, and the tension was palpable, and it was one of the great comeback games.

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