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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:45 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Noel says that was a sensational round. :D The banker says he thought Kiran had made a mistake by no dealing, and he's perplexed by what just happened, as it was less than a 2% chance.

Banker's offer:

£22,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:48 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Kiran gets excited about how he can go away with £1,000 minimum, and his dad says he should deal as he'll have almost nothing if he takes out the £75,000. Debs points out that if he takes out the £1,000, he's guaranteed at least £10,000, and the banker phones to say that's why he made such a big offer, and Kiran should respect his father by dealing! Bryan says he'd no deal here, and Kiran says he feels confident.

Kiran says

NO DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Round 6

18 - newbie Bonita - £75,000

Noel says it's still not over yet.

22 - Debs - £15,000

10 - Paul - £35,000

Banker time with £1,000 and £10,000 remaining

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:51 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Noel says that's one of the most dramatic swings in the game that he can remember.

Banker's offer:

£4,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:51 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Kiran asks his dad for advice, and he says his box looks interesting and he should go for it.

Kiran says

NO DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:52 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Banker's offer:

SWAP

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:52 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Kiran says 21 means nothing to him but today is the 21st, and he says 9 is his birthday, but he's always said he'd never swap.

Kiran says

NO SWAP

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wkd

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran

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Hmm. Bit of a topsy turvy game this one.


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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Kiran wins £10,000 from his box 21.

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Box 9 with Hetty contains the £1,000

Noel says that's more than a consolation win and is a chunky sum of money.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:09 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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What a shame that it had to go wrong towards the end! :(

Suddenly, were back to this repeated moments...

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"The Banker"

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:06 pm    Author: "The Banker"    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran

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Best case scenario - an all blue round leaving 5 reds at 5-box, followed by the worst case scenario - taking out the top 3 highest reds - what a rollercoaster!

With a guaranteed £1,000 at 5-box I too would have declined £22,000 - the board was just too good to not play it, in my opinion. Very unfortunate to take out the 3 highest reds straight after an all blue round, but £10,000 isn't a bad result and not to be sniffed at at all! Welldone Kiran! :)

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:09 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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Ten days to the birthday. Wonder how many of the players will be male. Wonder how many will be goaded into decisions that are not their own.

Kiran's the first, and he's apparently unable to multi-task. Right, so that means that you have an inability to listen to Noel while concentrating on your game, then? ;)

£50,000 was nasty; four blues, even high blues, more than compensate. Ten grand, not bad. Oh, there goes the jackpot. Ah well, at least we should be free of the worst of Noel today. Second offer, fair drop? Well, it's not a big deal, in any sense.

Jonathan steps up to be a willing victim, and almost spoils a super round. Three of the Power 5 excluding £250k at this stage is an average board with good stability, and £13,000 is a big leap upwards, arguably dealable, certainly worthy of more time than the edit appears to have implied.

A target is implied, before yet another round with one and only one sizable hit. Unfortunately, once again, it's the highest amount on the board. Four five-figure reds at eight-box is never bad, though, especially when one is £75,000; it's not a dangerous game at all, and the Banker knows it. Bryan is right to advise playing on here, Darren wrong to say this board will take a decisive turn here with 'no in-betweens'.

Oh, OK, he's only gone and pulled off the 1-in-56 chance of an all-blue round! The crucial thing here is that there's only one orange in those five, even if it does happen to be the £1,000; at worst, we're going back to the £5k at 14-box. The offer is perfectly pitched in my opinion, and instinctively, I reckon I'd just about take it. Neither decision is wrong; playing on based on 'feeling confident' might be.

Have we ever had that before, the best possible round 5 followed by the worst possible round 6? Statistically, it should have happened at least twice before, as it's a 1 in 560 chance... oh, OK, four grand, I'd play on there, and so does Kiran, and it pays off. What a bizarre way to get an average result.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:03 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran
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KP

I'm sure we've hit the 1 in 560 chance before (although there are 4 ways of doing it if you permuate 2 lots of dream/nightmare round).

Some nicely placed offers by the banker, 11-box was dealable, 8-box less so but not a joke and 5-box well placed (the EV was probably around the £22k offered but with a 60% chance of no less than £22k and 80% chance of a 5-figure offer and a worse case scenario of £4k), it was worth the gamble, even more so if you were willing to gamble at 2-box with at least £1k guaranteed.

In the end, £10k was still a OBW but a nice amount for a calculated gamble that went wrong.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 11:07 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran

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Bizarre is indeed the word to describe the end of that game. I won't say yet how I would describe the forthcoming Halloween specials, but you're getting a bit of a taster with the break clips, the set is awesome but a bit creepy...:suspect:

Anyway, back to today's fascinating game, one of those rare beasts the all-red final 5, and an offer a mere £400 under my calculator estimate, indicating it was well pitched but perfectly justifiable to turn down. Topping and tailing the board wouldn't have been a disaster, but unfortunately hitting the 10% chance was. Still, at least he got a decent reward for what was a worthwhile gamble.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Fri Oct 22, 2010 11:04 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 21/10 Kiran

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Good game. Personally i would have probably taken the £22k at 5 box but i can certainly understand the temptation of the all red 5 box. There was absolutely no shame in going on, but the dream round followed immediately by the nightmare round is what people will remember this game for

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