Ah, history. The first Banker's Gamble was for Phyllis, £10k on 1p/£50k, and the first swap... was it Irene's, the one everyone forgets before Nick's? Or was there one in 2005?
Anyway, how you can have seven teenage children is beyond me, both biologically and psychologically, so let's move on, and enjoy a just about above-average opening round. And a generous opening offer, and the fact it isn't a round number might be setting a theme.
He's a golfer? Probably at least reasonably well-off; might well be able to afford to take more risks. He certainly will after that all-blue. Sixteen grand isn't quite enough to be worthy of serious thought, but nor is it low enough to be summarily dismissed.
There goes the jackpot, thus absolutely ensuring we go to the ADP; £35k, £75k, and £100k are the key values, and they're backed up by an uninterrupted £1k-£10k block, which could be crucial. Fairly close to average by whichever metric you choose, and there's the obligatory £NO_DEAL offer.
Two oranges and a blue in round 4, and the momentum swings; mean is above the starting value, and it's a three-box game. £11,500 isn't enough; £14,000 might be; £17,000 probably just about is. No complaints at either decision here, though...
...and goodness me, it goes in his favour! Not only are there the top three, but he still has the £5k, which serves two purposes; it guarantees a four-figure offer even if the 10% disaster chance pops up, but more pertinently, there's a 30% chance that it'll be the kicker on a Power 5 finish, and that could bump up those offers by potentially close to £10k relative to leaving a blue. I'd want £35k here, and the Banker may well offer that, seeing as he said something along the lines of really wanting to play the producers' game... not quite, it's another non-round offer, I'd play on, he doesn't. I might well have offered advice that made him play on, were I on the wings; wouldn't that have been the ultimate irony?
£5k/£100k finish. Banker's Gamble, or a hypothetical joke? The latter. To be honest, I think he should have gone at eight-box if he was going to take that one at five-box, the offer didn't improve as much as the board. And £100k in the box; he leaves with regrets and £28,750, which is much better than regrets and £100.
Oh, and Mark, two more rounds. One of them involving a stupid risk, if the offer's anything like the one he'd really have got. It was worth playing on at five-box, yes, but two-box? That's another matter.
_________________ Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat. Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted. "Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables) I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me. In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.
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