And on the day the coalition government confirmed their plans to create a US-style elitist university system, we get a university student in the chair who is apparently very comfortable with taking big financial risks. Bad timing.
Starting with a five-figure offer after the textbook average opening round of three blues, £100,000, and an orange. The other two oranges fall in quick succession, creating a visually interesting board at the end of Act I, and oh look! That one there means she took out exactly £26,000 in the round. Bet the Banker doesn't notice. "Ammarah says anything she leaves with is amazing", so we have a player who has set her reference point as zero, is playing this entire game - strictly speaking, correctly - in the domain of gains, and is thus going to display none of the loss-aversion that most players do.
The last person I recall to have such an attitude? He got ushered away from this forum on his motorbike.
Anyway, fifteen grand is a stunning second offer, and although I wouldn't take it, I would absolutely not think any less of someone who did. And crikey, that's a super third round. Hang on, the proportional increase is actually less after that round than after the preceding all-red, and places it deliberately just below the most common inflection point on contestants' utility curve. They couldn't possibly be scared that this player might actually deal before the ADP, could they.
Oh.
Hello? Now that's a brilliant twist. And I'm at least having to consider the Deal, but I would play on, anticipating a much more generous seven-box offer. Hm, this has got me thinking, taking a step back from reading this recap to eat my dinner. A box-opening structure of 5-5-3-3-2-2 might work. Will try that on the forum tonight.
Anyway, Ammarah plays on, and this is the first four-box round in DoND history, if memory serves. The break is called with eight on the board, and with the third in the round being blue, I reckon that'd have been at least a stick. What next? Surely not the jackpot... it is as well. After Sunday's ending, how wrong does that look? Confirmation the offer would have been more generous at 7-box, we now have a 6-box offer, and whatever was left of the rulebook before is left in tatters. I'm not sure if I love it, loathe it, or both. Probably both. I'm glad for the stability of Miljoenenjacht coming back next month, at any rate.
Back to £15,000, on a £50k-high squashdown. Practically the mean; I can't honestly validate a gamble here. She can, it's one to open, Noel says taking out the £15k will produce a near-stick, she does just that. This is either alarmingly close to being fixed, or alarmingly badly edited. I repeat, it is not enough for this game to be fair, it has to be seen to be fair.
The producer won't change any more rules after five years of the show, the offer resembles the type he made a few times at the start of those five years on this board, it has to be taken, and it is. After all that, she wins bang on the long-run median win, can you believe it?
Or possibly not; we've only gone and got ourselves a textbook Banker's Gamble situation. One twist too many? Yup, let's have a good old-fashioned hypothetical lie instead. At least the fiver's on the table, meaning that Noel's introduction tomorrow might talk about the chaotic twists midway through this game, and not some nonsense about 'courage' based on the ending.
James1978 wrote:
What are they going to do tomorrow, just open a box at the start of the game and say that's your winnings?
As opposed to January 2007's "just open a box at the end of the game and say that's your winnings"?
On Friday, I will be watching my university group perform a production called "The Last 5 Years". It's about a relationship gone horribly wrong. Now that, Noel, is what you call a coincidence.
FAQ
Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:49 pm Author: h2005 Post subject: Re: 12/10 Ammarah
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