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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:45 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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Noel says "GAME ON"!

Banker's offer:

£12,000

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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:46 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

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Taking 50p out definitely helps though.

£12k is half the mean. It's dealable.

I'd be tempted. But I think the board is stable enough to carry on.


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:46 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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Noel reminds us that £1,000 is a lot of money for Steve to save.

Paul says

NO DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:48 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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Round 5

1 - Martin - £5,000

18 - Fadi - £1,000

19 - Kiran - £1

Banker time

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Mark

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:49 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

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I expect at least old faithful here. With just one blue, and 3 of the power five, worth going on. Hope he's brave enough.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:49 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
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Strong board.

Average is £40,000.

I need £25,000+ to consider this.


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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Noel says it's likely that Paul has at least £15,000 on the table. The banker says he's scared of courage, and he thinks Paul's shown courage.

Banker's offer:

£26,000

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greeny

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:50 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

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I personally wouldn't take this - but Paul definitely should


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Mark

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:50 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

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Hopefully old faithful will not work. Find that blue first box, going home with no less than £15k.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:51 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
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And £26,000 is enough for me here.

It's a somewhat cautious deal. But there's a sufficient drop on any blue/not100k finish that I'm taking it.

Would be interested in working out the EV of carrying on here actually. Will do so and post back :)


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:51 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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Christopher offers some advice, and Marley says Paul could struggle if he carries on as the remaining numbers mean something to him.

Paul says

DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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Round 6 (proveout)

6 - Gina - £500

8 - Lilly - £35,000

7 - Debs - £100,000

Banker time with £15,000 and £50,000 remaining...

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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The banker says that game had something for everyone.

Banker's offer would've been:

£31,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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Paul has £50,000 in his box 17.

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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:55 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

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Have worked out what i'd guess the 2-box offers to be:

500/15000 - 5000
500/35000 - 10000
500/50000 - 15000
500/10000 - 25000

15000/30000 - 22000
15000/50000 - 30000
15000/100000 - 50000

35000/50000 - 42000
35000/100000 - 60000

50000/100000 - 75000

= average 2-box offer of £33,400

So given the mean of £40k and the EV of the 2-box offer as £33k the offer is perhaps a tad low. But I think a 3/10 chance of 15k or less is a justified reason for taking the offer.


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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Box 9 with Steve contains the £15,000

Paul talks about the difference that the money will have on his life. :D

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Mark

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:55 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

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And again, the old faithful has worked. Another player who wasn't brave enough, but at least it's a very good win, shame no banker spanking.


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greeny

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 5:01 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

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Given it takes 3 years for Paul to save £1,000 - the amount he's just won would take him 78 years to save at the same rate.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 5:19 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul
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But even with that crash, he was still guaranteed £50,000

Besides, I never take the old faithful cause I know what it can do

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 7:28 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 06/10 Paul

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Well to be honest I really don't care that the deal appeared somewhat cautious - for this particular contestant I was just really relieved he won a large amount of money, and in this case I don't care about the proveout! :)

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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