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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2010 9:33 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 24/09 Lisa
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Maybe because he's getting fed up of seeing the same result happening over and over again as of late...

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James1978

PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2010 9:45 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 24/09 Lisa

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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I'm absolutely certain that that's the first-ever 5-figure OPL. Really weird as she won more than Mary yesterday yet it felt loads worse (but not terrible play either I must say)!!

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2010 10:53 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 24/09 Lisa

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
Location: Oxfordshire
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I call that the curse of the all blue opening round. The start of the game looked too good to be true and it turned out it was.

The problem is that after an opening round that strong there was almost nowhere left for Lisa to go and she was lucky that the offers all stayed pretty much in the same ballpark.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2010 11:26 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 24/09 Lisa

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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What a start to the game, nearly having the absolutely perfect 5 boxes, and amazing to end up with a five-figure OPL! The EV calculator came into its own today, given the banker was actually trying to make an attempt to buy the box, and as the following stats illustrate most of the decisions were arguable either way:

(Think of the estimate as a 'benchmark' figure, the lowest figure any player, i.e even the most cautious, should reasonably expect from the board, of course it's not always an exact science, but still...)

17-box Estimate: £17,528.88 Actual: £17,000 Generosity: 0.97

14-box Estimate: £16,945.75 Actual: £16,000 Generosity: 0.94

11-box Estimate: £19,774.91 Actual: £18,000 Generosity: 0.91

8-box Estimate: £13,919.24 Actual: £14,000 Generosity: 1.01

5-box Estimate: £11,695.37 Actual: £12,000 Generosity: 1.03

What's mildly interesting here is the generosity being at its lowest point at 11-box, perhaps as KP says to ensure they don't get an early deal, as a £20k deal on a board of this strength would probably be considered disastrous for them, as we might well speculate upon. It also seems to flag up that going at 8-box or 5-box would be perfectly justifiable decisions, so she didn't make a bad decision yet ended up with an OPL, extraordinary game, and if the banker continues to play to my EV calculator guidance, we'll have more classic encounters! :D

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:54 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 24/09 Lisa
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
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Wow, what a contrast to yesterday's game when we had 6 offers that really weren't taxing to the player. Today we had 6 offers that were all in a way dealable (although the first 2 would have been mega-cautious, Noel rant-inducing ones).

Ironic that after Noel mentioned in his intro that the SWAP was the hardest decision in the game, we get a BG that was probably more difficult and also as Noel pointed out, after a family member said he wasn't going to influence Lisa's game, he ended up being the sensible one. Whether Lisa would have dealt without his influence, we'll never know though.

Despite the OPL, a fascinating game and for me, when the player gets 3 or 4 tough decisions, it's the way the game should pan out.

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JS Boy

PostPosted: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:54 am    Author: JS Boy    Post subject: Re: 24/09 Lisa

Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2009 7:32 pm
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I like your posts Statsman because I am fascinated by the statistics surrounding the offers. Does this EV calculator take into account likely scenarios at the next offer though? I'm thinking especially at 8 box and 5 box offers when there is only one bigish red left. I sort of work on a theory that if at this stage (or even sometimes at 11 box) if the board has a reasonable balance of reds and blues, then an offer of more than half the average is statistcally unlikely to be bettered without a good slice of luck.


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