KP wrote:
I'll give her this much - if you're turning down £17,000 at 11-box (and there's a good case not to, and I might be going on myself now) you don't take £20,000 on a stronger board just because it's a) on the stereotypical utility curve inflection point, b) at the ADP.
Would never have taken that if I got this far, simply for that reason. Don't know if I'd have got this far.
As I tend to do now, I was 'playing along' with my EV calculator (which people really should try sometime!
) on my Ipod, and it produced some interesting stats, which kind of back up what you are saying. Here's what it said:
11-box Estimate: £16,527.77 Actual: £17,000 Generosity:
1.038-box Estimate: £17,765.39 Actual: £20,000 Generosity:
1.135-box Estimate: £28,366.76 Actual: £26,050 Generosity:
0.92So, yes it shows a minor increase in generosity, but definitely not in line with what you would expect to receive having rejected the 11-box offer, I think. Bare in mind that as a general rule, the 11-box often shows up about 66% of the estimate, 8 box around 80% and by 5-box it should really at least on the estimate. So, applying that metric roughly to this player, she
shouldn't be considering much below £22k at 8-box having rejected £17k, and with her accepting a 5-box offer below estimations, it perhaps indicates she wasn't being entirely true to herself at 11-box (well it wasn't exactly easy to be with Noel blathering on about the 3rd quarter-millionaire...).
One of the biggest problems at the moment is that the banker's generosity is seeming to tail off later on in the game and when the board is becoming stronger. Maybe he's identified many targetists on the wings or maybe the contestants aren't being positive in their decisions either way, but the show is stuck in a bit of a rut at the moment, and it seems like ages since the last OPW to create a bit of energy and momentum on the wings. Hopefully, things will improve soon...