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Kaledmutant

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 9:49 pm    Author: Kaledmutant    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 4:32 pm
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Have to agree with KP. I haven't been watching regularly recently and Noel's continual verbal diarrhoea is the reason.

Sue was a very attractive lady and has worn several very beautiful dresses and tops, and today was no exception. A stunning beauty and an amazing story. Was so delighted to see her walk away with over £26k even if there was one more round in proveout.

Could someone please tell Noel to stop blathering about "playing on with honesty" as it is oh-so-obvious that the proveout offers are grossly inflated against live play and Noel's empty rhetoric about stats and past shows is irritating to say the least. Thank god Sue was seemingly unaffected by Noel's chuntering on.

Very best wishes to Sue in the future and with her training. She could train me anytime! :smt047


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:59 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
Location: Oxfordshire
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Good game, don't blame Sue at all for taking the £26,000 - sorry £26,050 :oops: - just a shame she couldn't find the big one in the proveout or it could have been one hell of a spanking

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 11:23 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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KP wrote:
Just flicked on my telly.

"Nobody ever won the life-changing money on Deal or No Deal without making a very difficult decision." I can think of a few counter-examples, dating way back to Mally and Trevor from the original 22!!

Turned off seconds later.


Trevor's 8-box board was spookily similar to Sue's today and he got offered £3k less. To be fair, Noel really should say "Nobody ever won the life-changing money on Deal or No Deal without making a very difficult decision UNLESS the banker suddenly went into hugely inflated offer mode (Jennifer's £120k and Trevor's £47k on a £250k/peanuts board would virtually never happen today).

In essence, all Noel has proved over the last 2 days is that he has managed not only the 1 in 121 shot of predicting one of the 2 boxes left at 2-box but the 1 in 484 chance of predicting the box that was left on the wings.

Toughest decisions we've had for a while. £17k, £20k and £26,050 were all in dealable territory for me but the first 2 were probably a little shy of my dealng point. The last one too but with only a 40% chance on an increase (albeit a huge one) and no knowing what a £50k/blue finish would bring, dealing wasn't a bad move.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 4:06 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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KP wrote:
I'll give her this much - if you're turning down £17,000 at 11-box (and there's a good case not to, and I might be going on myself now) you don't take £20,000 on a stronger board just because it's a) on the stereotypical utility curve inflection point, b) at the ADP.

Would never have taken that if I got this far, simply for that reason. Don't know if I'd have got this far.


As I tend to do now, I was 'playing along' with my EV calculator (which people really should try sometime! :P ) on my Ipod, and it produced some interesting stats, which kind of back up what you are saying. Here's what it said:

11-box Estimate: £16,527.77 Actual: £17,000 Generosity: 1.03

8-box Estimate: £17,765.39 Actual: £20,000 Generosity: 1.13

5-box Estimate: £28,366.76 Actual: £26,050 Generosity: 0.92

So, yes it shows a minor increase in generosity, but definitely not in line with what you would expect to receive having rejected the 11-box offer, I think. Bare in mind that as a general rule, the 11-box often shows up about 66% of the estimate, 8 box around 80% and by 5-box it should really at least on the estimate. So, applying that metric roughly to this player, she shouldn't be considering much below £22k at 8-box having rejected £17k, and with her accepting a 5-box offer below estimations, it perhaps indicates she wasn't being entirely true to herself at 11-box (well it wasn't exactly easy to be with Noel blathering on about the 3rd quarter-millionaire...).

One of the biggest problems at the moment is that the banker's generosity is seeming to tail off later on in the game and when the board is becoming stronger. Maybe he's identified many targetists on the wings or maybe the contestants aren't being positive in their decisions either way, but the show is stuck in a bit of a rut at the moment, and it seems like ages since the last OPW to create a bit of energy and momentum on the wings. Hopefully, things will improve soon...

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