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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:44 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Just flicked on my telly.

"Nobody ever won the life-changing money on Deal or No Deal without making a very difficult decision." I can think of a few counter-examples, dating way back to Mally and Trevor from the original 22!!

Turned off seconds later.

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:46 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Round 5

10 - Lisa - £20,000

14 - Erica - £500

Noel comments on how the 50p and £50,000 are still there, and talks about the 50 coincidences again.

12 - Ammarah - £750

Banker time

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:46 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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I'll give her this much - if you're turning down £17,000 at 11-box (and there's a good case not to, and I might be going on myself now) you don't take £20,000 on a stronger board just because it's a) on the stereotypical utility curve inflection point, b) at the ADP.

Would never have taken that if I got this far, simply for that reason. Don't know if I'd have got this far.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:48 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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The banker says he can't believe that we've reached this point, and these are desperate times for him. He says he's tempted to reach for an old friend, but is modifying it slightly!

Banker's offer:

£26,050

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cfd

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:48 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue

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I'd be taking £30,000+ here in a heartbeat. I wouldn't have got to this point though.

£26k hmmm. Possibly. I'd flip a coin.

Given how much she's risked to get to this point though she shouldn't really be taking it - it makes her previous no deals quite bad.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:49 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Just flicked over again. £26,000 was telegraphed from a long way out, and is still less dealable than the £17,000 IMO.

I'm in a position where I can turn this down, it's still only half the mean, I would turn this down. Sue's self-employed, in a field that needs a fair bit of investment in training to enter, so she's a risk-taker in that sense; experienced personal trainers can charge sufficient rates to earn very good money indeed; I think she's going to play all the way almost regardless.

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I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Noel says this is one of the biggest moments on the show for a while. Noel says Sue has been incredibly brave as the game hasn't been overwhelmingly strong.

Sue says

DEAL

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cfd

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:50 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue

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A final of £50,000/£250,000 one time please :)


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:51 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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...and then she Deals. Couldn't possibly be because Noel praised her for her previous decisions thus making her decide she didn't need to prove herself again, could it.

She may have won more, but if you're going to turn down the last two offers you probably should turn down this one as well.

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:52 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Round 6 (proveout)

Noel says this could be the perfect game.

11 - Lois - 50p

"WHO CLAPPED!!!" shouts Noel...

17 - Martin - £50,000

The banker phones and says he'd have phoned at this point to say if the next box is the £100, the offer would've been £90,000.

4 - Robbie - £5,000

Banker time with £100 and £250,000 remaining...

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cfd

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:52 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue

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lol, as if the next offer would ever be £90,000 on a £5,000/£250,000 finish.

Let's see what lies we hear here...


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Monkeynut

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:52 pm    Author: Monkeynut    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Baker's gamble?

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Noel says this is unbelievable as the 1p was in the final 2 yesterday.

Banker's offer would've been:

£68,500

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cfd

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue

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Meh. £68.5k sounds just about reasonable. I imagine it'd be more like ~£50k in live play though.


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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Noel says this has been an extraordinary period on the show.

Sue has £100 in her box 8.

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Box 9 with Denise contains the £250,000

Noel says it was such a relief that the £250k wasn't on the table, and Sue says she's had an amazing experience. :D

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:55 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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If Noel is serious about the integrity of this game, he needs to shut up with this coincidences lark.

It is not enough for this game to be fair, it has to be seen to be fair. When these things happen, the game looks like it might possibly be unfair. It almost certainly is, but all it takes is the appearance to the contrary and the game is affected, both by viewer scepticism and potentially by player scepticism.

£68,500 would have taken me out; it's the first offer since 14-box I can be certain of one way or the other.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 5:24 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Well there's a game we haven't had for a while...still no power five win in sight

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Brick

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 6:57 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Sounds like a game with a lot of hot air from the host and down the blower. Not sure whether to tune into the end part on More4.

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Brick

PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 7:30 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 21/09 Sue
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Tuned in just before she dealt. At least Sue didn't seem too affected by all the hot air and she was happy with what she did win.

Kinda feels like Noel's not doing the show any favours by telling us to scribble out 'random' in the dictionary...

Going on about 50 just seems like clutching at straws to me. The only thing that could seem 'remarkable' about this phase is however sensible the players' decisions (both dealing and no dealing), they seem to get coloured badly by what happens next. The frustrating end of remarkable then? Mind you, it is September...

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