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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina
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If there's any luck, this will be £20,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina
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Box 15 with Max contains the £20,000

I need therapy jokes Balbina :lol:

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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:55 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina
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But it's not...I was gonna vote this for game of the month until that happened!

When is there actually going to be a game where it goes right all the way through?

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Mark

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:57 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
Location: Ipswich
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cfd wrote:
Deal for me at this point.


When you can gain another £2,500 or lose £2,500 from the offer? A bit to lose yes but not that much, so no point in dealing.


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cfd

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:05 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
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Mark wrote:
cfd wrote:
Deal for me at this point.


When you can gain another £2,500 or lose £2,500 from the offer? A bit to lose yes but not that much, so no point in dealing.


It's a neutral EV deal.

Let's say you had £17,500 in your bank account.

Would you be happy to take £2,500 out of it and put it on red/black on a roulette table (assuming it's a genuine 50/50 chance obv). If the answer is no then you should be dealing the offer.


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greeny

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:31 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:14 pm
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I'm normally risk averse, and would never go near a roulette table - but I'd ND that offer on that finish as I'd be more than happy to walk away with £15,000.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:41 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina
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I don't have that psychological attitude so would've been £17,500 for me... but that was a classic, and it was opened up by the dire eight-box offer. Low twenties, you have a decision, but the Banker didn't even try and buy the box there. Was very lucky to escape with only that much again as his eventual payout.

I'm in a secure enough position to gamble at five-box, but would not think any less of someone who took the money there. I'd hope for a stick or better for a £100k-high finish, and with my mathematical attitude I might have got it, certainly with a £20k kicker.

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tr4962

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 7:16 pm    Author: tr4962    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2006 10:55 pm
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Mark wrote:
cfd wrote:
Deal for me at this point.


When you can gain another £2,500 or lose £2,500 from the offer? A bit to lose yes but not that much, so no point in dealing.


But as there is 'a bit to lose', I disagree that there is no point. If someone wanted to guarantee that extra £2,500, or specifically needed £16,000 for something, then why risk losing it?


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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 7:32 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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Very similar 5-box to Amy's but the offer was a whole £30k less - who's trying to manufacture a big finish then? ;-) (Yes Noel, there has been a 5-box like that in active play before!!!)

What a shame Balbina couldn't have been playing Stephen's game but I guess not even he had 10 grand guaranteed at 5-box.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 9:30 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina
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James1978 wrote:
Very similar 5-box to Amy's but the offer was a whole £30k less - who's trying to manufacture a big finish then? ;-) (Yes Noel, there has been a 5-box like that in active play before!!!)

What a shame Balbina couldn't have been playing Stephen's game but I guess not even he had 10 grand guaranteed at 5-box.


Ditto. I know Amy's game was over a year ago but how can a £75k 5-box deal be easily forgotten.

£45k was too low for me today at 5-box. Can't blame Balbina for gambling with £15k guaranteed with a 70% chance of the offer being at least what she turned down.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 10:41 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

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Fantastic game i thought. :smt023

Personally i thought the 5 box offfer was worth considering, and i wouldn't have criticised any player for actually taking it, but at the same time I think Balbina was right to take a punt at the big one. It's a shame she couldn't have kept one of the big two in play till the end but still a valiant attempt

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Tom

PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:09 am    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

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What an incredible game! I haven't got that into one for ages. At times, I was literally cheering and saying "come on"!

No problems with her no dealing the £45k, completely justified, it's just a shame she didn't keep one of the big two..ah well. Incredible game!


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 12:38 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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I agree, probably the best game of the season so far, shame it collapsed right at the end but 15k is still a decent sum, reasoning for most to decline the 5-box offer which was below par for the board. Interesting comparing the offers to my EV calculator lately, seem to have worked out a 'formula' of sorts to the offers, which I'll explain more in the next couple of days!

Incidentally, today it reckoned the 'buy-the-box' value to be around 57k at 5-box, which I don't think is outlandish, and more illustrative of the 45k being a force-on offer, amazing considering the enormity of that sum.

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JS Boy

PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:27 pm    Author: JS Boy    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2009 7:32 pm
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I'm surprised that most of you think the offer at 5 box (45k) was not enough. I thought it quite generous and would have had me dealing


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DanS

PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:26 pm    Author: DanS    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina
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Hmm, you get the players who marvel at an offer and then say "That's a lot of money". I always say to myself at that moment "There's a difference between good money and a good offer". I sometimes wish the players would stop praising the offers just because it's a good amount of money, because sometimes what I have seen on the board they could be getting a lot more.

£45k was an example of this. It's great money, of course it is. But it's not a great offer. With £10k guaranteed and a chance to win one of the two largest prizes, I think it was the right decision to have a stab at it.


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JS Boy

PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:55 pm    Author: JS Boy    Post subject: Re: 07/09 Balbina

Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2009 7:32 pm
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My reasoning that it was a good offer (45k at 5 box) was because the only way she could guarantee a better offer would be by keeping the 250k in play, which was odds-on losing. Even if she had kept the 100k and say 20k there was no guarantee of a much better offer. I always think that if the offer is over half the average, which this was, you need quite a bit of luck to get a better offer.


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