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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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Round 6 - Proveout round

4 - £20,000 Stephen

9 - £100,000 Max

17 - £75,000 Daphne

Banker time with £750 and £3,000 remaining

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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What an extraordinary situation, where you take the lowest 3 in a round and the highest 3 says Noel.

Banker's offer would've been:

£1,700

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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Noel opens Danny's box 5 and reveals £3,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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Box 6 with Jayne contains the £750

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 4:56 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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Well done Endemol for once again mis-matching the player and the board :roll:

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H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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unclekevo

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:02 pm    Author: unclekevo    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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TBF They don't control the board.

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1p£250,000.

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:18 pm    Author: 1p£250,000.    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny

Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2010 2:28 pm
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unclekevo wrote:
And again Maria would have been potentially a quarter-millionare if she played today. Considering that 4 of the five amounts she has had this week have been power-five reds and 3 have been the quarter-million with the other being the hundred thousand, it's not looking likely that she'll have one for her game :(

Its a game of randomness, she could easily have another one.
I hope she does as she seems like an intelligent person who will know how to play the game how it should be played, and I have got used to her being on the show as she has been there so long, 30 games now, and i want her to do well!


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DanS

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:24 pm    Author: DanS    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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Huh. I never had Danny down to be the cautious type but there you go. Quite an intriguing game in my opinion. Vast contrast to yesterday's game as Noel kept pointing out with Danny being so relaxed, which made the game easier to watch for me. Enjoy the cash Danny! :smt023

As for Maria, this is quite amazing. There have been a lot of examples where the longest runner has had a large amount right before their game (H sticks in my mind the most for some reason) but the situation with Maria is astounding. She's been the longest runner for the entirety of season 6, and had the £250,000 three times. How has Noel not picked up on this?


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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:32 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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Because he's losing his memory and forgetting things a lot

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H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:35 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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unclekevo wrote:
TBF They don't control the board.


No, but they seem to have a habit of mis-matching though

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H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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1p£250,000.

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:44 pm    Author: 1p£250,000.    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny

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DanS wrote:
Huh. I never had Danny down to be the cautious type but there you go. Quite an intriguing game in my opinion. Vast contrast to yesterday's game as Noel kept pointing out with Danny being so relaxed, which made the game easier to watch for me. Enjoy the cash Danny! :smt023

As for Maria, this is quite amazing. There have been a lot of examples where the longest runner has had a large amount right before their game (H sticks in my mind the most for some reason) but the situation with Maria is astounding. She's been the longest runner for the entirety of season 6, and had the £250,000 three times. How has Noel not picked up on this?

I do not know why he hasnt noticed, I reckon he will probably mention it when her game comes.


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DanS

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:48 pm    Author: DanS    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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killersbee wrote:
unclekevo wrote:
TBF They don't control the board.


No, but they seem to have a habit of mis-matching though


Still not Endemol's fault. Even if they did (God Forbid) cheat to try and create big wins. How are they supposed to know that Danny was gonna keep the £100,000 and the £75,000?


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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 7:47 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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Luck perhaps?

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Skyline: "You're still winging about a game six hours after it airs, and it's not even your money!"
H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:59 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny

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I have to say kudos to DOND for this game. It satisfies my previous complaint that dealing early in the game spoils the show. I think they did the right thing and obviously edited it well to make the show still entertaining. I think Danny was brave to deal at £17k when there were so many big tempting numbers in play, but as we are so often told, £17k is real money and I think the majority of players walk away with less than £8k if you look at the past results. It was a very clever offer and I think it may have been aimed at tempting an actual deal regardless of what Noel said about a safe board and playing on.

It goes to prove that Noel/peer pressure to always push the player to no-deal until the dying parts of the game doesn't necessarily have to be the only way to play the game. I thought Noels reaction and comments about Danny and his friend being negative talking about the 'car crashes' were quite humourous and added the devils advocate viewpoint.

Heres hoping we see more 3rd offer deals. If the banker is reading this, higher end offers will weigh more on players minds and we may start seeing interesting pyschological reactions.

Much respect DOND! I am firmly back in the land of DOND. :)

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:17 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny

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I think once Noel called the break it was inevitable that Danny was going to deal.

Personally i don't think i could have walked away from a board that strong - and i suspect the majority of people would feel the same - and in that respect Danny actually showed a certain degree of courage in going against the grain.

It's hard to say whether it was the right choice or not, the fact is he was two rounds away from the peak of the game, but i suspect that given the hits he took in the next round he would have probably have dealt the £14,000 so he wouldn't have got there anyway.

And what was clear was that the £17k meant a lot to Danny, in that respect he made the right deal. Still a little dissapointing though

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:02 am    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny

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Moxx of Balhoom wrote:
I think once Noel called the break it was inevitable that Danny was going to deal.

I have to say I had never seen a commercial break other than when they halt it to open a box, so it did seem unusual

Moxx of Balhoom wrote:
Still a little dissapointing though

I'll play the devils advocate and ask why you thought it was dissapointing. If the aim of the game is to go home with the most money, surely its more dissapointing when a play goes on to the bitter end after killing off their power 5 to be rewarded with a few grand or worse. Joining the 1p club is more dissapointing than walking away with a cheque for £17k. :lol:

I guess I'm a lone voice on this issue but again, I think it was refreshing to see Danny play the game and make up his own mind rather than be coerced to keep playing. I felt strongly about Haj's game at the end of last season. He seemed quite content with £10k around 3rd offer point in the game yet in my opinion wasn't as strong in mind as Danny so went on and then walked away with £250.

It would be very interesting to hear from people who have played the game to comment on the pressure to keep no dealing until late in the game.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:55 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny

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Intriguing game certainly, and the stats on my calculator make quite interesting reading, more of which later. I wasn't really expecting Danny to deal at 11-box from the outset, although it was heavily telegraphed by the early 2nd break. Good to see a more relaxed player in the chair after yesterday being so intense! Anyway, here's what the calculator made of the deal today:

Today's metric: Actual offer: £17,000 Estimate: £17,604.08 Score:0.97

Often we'll probably see players looking for an extra generous offer at this point to even contemplate dealing, as they don't want to leave the game early. Here, we have a deal very slightly below the benchmark, but not a bad decision by any means, rather reflected in a topsy-turvy proveout with only one offer higher than he took (which using the similar metric was inflated by around 2k). We've seen players swayed from a deal at this stage, so good to see he didn't feel obliged to go the ADP, and ultimately he'd have probably ended up taking 3k less if he had done...

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Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
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Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:18 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny
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Just seen the game due to being away this weekend. Not sure I agree with KB's analysis that the round from 11-box to 8-box "wasn't quite enough" when the average and FD went down but Noel's "3rd offer deal = bad" lie is worse analysis, especially when he said that the majority of players don't make it worse

(Has anyone got up to date stats on the outcome of 3rd offer deal games BTW)

Shame he hit the all blue round next and that £31k was very over-inflated.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:41 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 27/08 Danny

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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norwichdonder wrote:

Moxx of Balhoom wrote:
Still a little dissapointing though

I'll play the devils advocate and ask why you thought it was dissapointing. If the aim of the game is to go home with the most money, surely its more dissapointing when a play goes on to the bitter end after killing off their power 5 to be rewarded with a few grand or worse. Joining the 1p club is more dissapointing than walking away with a cheque for £17k. :lol:



Dissapoining in the sense that he failed to get the absolute maximum out of the game. FWIW I do admire Danny for making the decision that was right for him and for not being seduced by a deceptively strong board. The fact is he was due a bad round, the only question was whether the board would subsequently recover, and on this occassion it did.

Yes he made a healthy profit on his box, but the proveout didn't entirely go his way did it?

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