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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:45 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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Tom says that isn't a bad offer. Adam tells Tom that if he hits the £100,000 he could be going home with next to nothing

Tom says

NO DEAL

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:45 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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That block was pivotal when £250k went. He's hit three of the top four from it and is in real trouble now. Suddenly this is dealable.

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:47 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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Round 5

11 - 50p Sal

Tom says someone text him 4 numbers yesterday and he is going to keep them to the end

4 - £50 Gareth

6 - £10 Andy G

Banker time

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:48 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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Well, that changes things again. Back into five figures we go, and he's had that round at just the right time. Should be a generous reaction to that all-blue and a Deal here.

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:48 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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What a round says the Banker, and he considers Adam a great reader of the board and Tom took a big risk in that round.

Banker's offer:

£18,500

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:49 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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It is indeed a generous reaction and it should be a Deal here.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:51 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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Tom says that is a lot of money, and he needs to take time for some advice. He says he always talks to the same person every morning, and that is the security guard and he asks if he can come in the studio to chat with Tom. Adam tells Tom that he doesn't think the next offer will be a big enough increase to risk playing on unless he is prepared to play all the way and open his box. Tom's wife tells him she is behind him all the way, but £18,500 is a massive amount.

Tom says

DEAL

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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Round 6 - Proveout round

3 - £3,000 Emily

2 - £1 Zaid

8 - £5,000 Julie

Banker time with £20,000 and £100,000 remaining

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kevinyeah

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: kevinyeah    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom

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how old is adam? i thought you had to be 18? :blueponder


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Mark

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom

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Should have been brave and gone on, with just one blue there, worth going on.


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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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That would have been the perfect round says Noel.

Banker's offer would've been:

£51,000

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wkd

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom

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Pesky 10% chance again.


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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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That hurts says Tom

Noel opens box 18 and reveals £20,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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Mo with box 14 contains the £100,000

Noel asks what happened as Tom said he would play all the way, and Tom tells him the reality of playing the game and the thought of going home with a blue got to him.

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:58 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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Reality check. Did not deserve the 10% chance, that was a very generous offer really.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:58 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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In other words, Beryl's game was still playing on Tom's mind when he should've ignored it and look what happened

£18,500 was slightly cautious, IMO

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:11 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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The FD at the time of the Deal was under £14k and the mean just over £25k - £18,500 was a very good offer indeed.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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matt26

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:18 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom

Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 4:47 pm
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kevinyeah wrote:
how old is adam? i thought you had to be 18? :blueponder


According to the official deal or no deal site he's 20.


killersbee wrote:
In other words, Beryl's game was still playing on Tom's mind when he should've ignored it and look what happened

£18,500 was slightly cautious, IMO


Why do you assume that whenever someone deals after someone's had a trainwreck that the rpevious game is playing on their mind? I reckon he'd have taken it even if Beryl had won 50k. He needed the money for charity, and 18.5k will do a lot to help that, so he felt he couldn't afford to go on.

And I wouldn't call taking 18.5k 'cautious'. I'd call it 'being sensible'. He had a 60% chance of taking out 100k, and then the most he could get would be only marginally more than what he deal at. Plus it was over 70% of the mean.


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sillymilly

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:43 pm    Author: sillymilly    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom

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Was really looking forward to Toms game as he seemed a diamond in the wings but am I the only one who thought he came across as a bit arrogant and almost agressive at times? I was really disappointed.

I applaud the fact that he was going to do something good with the money as its really disheartening when a player says they are going to spend 20K on bumming around Europe or something when they have already admited they are in debt and live in rented.

I want to shout at the screen 'pay off your debts and put a deposit on a flat!!!' But of course its their choice.

So i did wantTom to do well, but he did seem arrogant and wanting a 'pat on the back' for all his work. Suppose its just me and will be shot down in flames!

Milly


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2010 6:20 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 12/04 Tom
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Well, these days not even £20k does that, but I take your point...

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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