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MisterAl

PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2006 12:07 am    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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Mental Mickey wrote:
£15K is a life enhancing amount of money on what is essentially a 50/50 bet, and with the numbers involved being just a pound and £75K, surely no-one with any sense would have turned down that last offer, even if it was insultingly low?

Remember Hilary, who turned down £15,000 on a 50/50 shot between peanuts and £50,000? Hilary's potential reward was 25 grand less than what Simone stood to win today. Are you saying that she too didn't have 'any sense'?


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Stewart

PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2006 1:10 am    Author: Stewart    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:24 pm
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It really annoys me when people accuse players of being greedy. She had £250k left on the board, someone's got to go for it, so if she's got the courage to go for it, good luck to her. Noone would be saying this greed thing if she'd hit it.


Anyway, I'd have no dealt £25k aswell. For my eyes, that offer was too low given that £75k and £250k were still there. For that to be a deal for me, the banker had to make £75k vs any blue look terrible compared to £25k and to my eyes he didnt. If the offer had been in the region of £35k it would have been a definite deal for me however.

However, I'd have taken £15k at the deal of 2. And I would have been happy with the outcome, as the risk at the deal of 5 may have cost £10k, but the potential gain was much greater. But Simone took the gamble, and unfortunately it didnt pay off :(


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"The Banker"

PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2006 12:02 pm    Author: "The Banker"    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 1:24 am
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Wow what a game!

When she no dealt at £25,500, I was hoping she would be rewarded for her bravery with the next offer, but obviously she wasn't. I understand her reasons for no dealing at £15,000. That offer was far too low.

I was convinced the £75,000 was in her box and when Noel revealed the pound, I was gutted. :(

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KP

PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2006 12:29 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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No question about it, that was dramatic.

Certainly proves the Banker isn't interested in saving money. On a board like that, a rational Banker would make the player walk, because the player can be taken out for a lot less than the mean of the remaining boxes, which is the liability the Banker faces on a No Deal decision - in that situation, £65,003.20. If I was the Banker there, I'd have offered about £32,000; I'd have offered £22,000 in the final two.

For what it's worth, I might have taken £25,500 but would have been very tempted not to; the £15,500 offer would have been an instant No Deal, there's no way I'm turning down odds of 4-1 on a coinflip (or more to the point, £75,000 is more than twice as useful to me as £15,500).

Offers like this at the end aren't too unusual now. For that reason alone, the second offer would have been very tempting - possibly the most tempting of the game for me.


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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2006 12:54 pm    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject:
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Mental Mickey wrote:
Simone decided not to, I don't particularly blame her for that (£15K was an insult and low considering the £75K was there), and although 'stupid' might be the wrong word ('unwise', 'brave' and 'foolish' might be better ways of describing her decision - I was in a hurry to type out the commentary at the time) it was not meant to offend, and if Simone ever does read these pages I hope she realises that.

That's fine, I didn't mean to single you out in any way for saying it, as I guessed you meant what she did rather than who she is personally. :)

I was a bit fed up of hearing the players being called greedy for taking chances; When one person said it (and may have had a good reason for saying it at the time), it gives some people the idea of saying the same thing in the future, when they see someone do it before them, even if it's uncalled for.

That's what I was concerned about, not necessarily saying someone's decision was stupid, though it might be unwise, but what is posted later on.


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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2006 1:17 pm    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject:
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Going back to the offer of £25,500... I admit that I would have to hold myself back from taking £25,500 in the same scenario, there is a lot you can buy with that kind of money! I still think she did the right thing, though, even though she did lose it all in the end.

Remember Patricia's game last week, where she had three reds left in five boxes; 3k, 50k and 250k, and was offered £32,000? Simone was offered £25,500 with a stronger board, so I'm sure the banker was making an example of her rather than anything else.

Of course, his own ego can cost him a lot of money, like when Gaz won £100,000, with the other box being 10k, by taking out all three blues with five boxes left, which was a very unlikely scenario.

She could have had the same 10% chance and had the 75k and 250k left, if the game was different.

The £15,500 offer is less of a problem, MisterAl noted a similar scenario to this above, and by this stage I would have gone all the way if I declined the £25,500 offer.

Looking at his previous offers in similar games, I think the reason he makes these poor offers is to dissuade players from going all the way.

He's not necessarily attempting to stop the player currently in the seat, but he's focusing on the players who have yet to play, who will feel more inclined to compromise in their own game, even when they see players like Gaz win a large sum of money, for fear of going home with nothing.

Finally, Simone could expect to win an average of £50,000 in the long run, nearly double the offer, if the banker were to offer her £75,000 with the 250k and one blue in play and she dealt. (The actual average of £65,000 is only a guide if the player doesn't go all the way every time.)

And 55% of the time she will win at least £75,000, but this also gives a 45% chance of losing it all, which is what happened in her game.

I've just realised how much I've typed here, hope your eyes aren't going all :shock: right now... :P


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Ian W

PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2006 7:04 pm    Author: Ian W    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2006 8:46 pm
Location: Ireland
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Poor Simone I want her to win loads of money

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