Going back to the offer of £25,500... I admit that I would have to hold myself back from taking £25,500 in the same scenario, there is a lot you can buy with that kind of money! I still think she did the right thing, though, even though she did lose it all in the end.
Remember Patricia's game last week, where she had three reds left in five boxes; 3k, 50k and 250k, and was offered £32,000? Simone was offered £25,500 with a stronger board, so I'm sure the banker was making an example of her rather than anything else.
Of course, his own ego can cost him a lot of money, like when Gaz won £100,000, with the other box being 10k, by taking out all three blues with five boxes left, which was a very unlikely scenario.
She could have had the same 10% chance and had the 75k and 250k left, if the game was different.
The £15,500 offer is less of a problem, MisterAl noted a similar scenario to this above, and by this stage I would have gone all the way if I declined the £25,500 offer.
Looking at his previous offers in similar games, I think the reason he makes these poor offers is to dissuade players from going all the way.
He's not necessarily attempting to stop the player currently in the seat, but he's focusing on the players who have yet to play, who will feel more inclined to compromise in their own game, even when they see players like Gaz win a large sum of money, for fear of going home with nothing.
Finally, Simone could expect to win an average of £50,000 in the long run, nearly double the offer, if the banker were to offer her £75,000 with the 250k and one blue in play and she dealt. (The actual average of £65,000 is only a guide if the player doesn't go all the way every time.)
And 55% of the time she will win at least £75,000, but this also gives a 45% chance of losing it all, which is what happened in her game.
I've just realised how much I've typed here, hope your eyes aren't going all

right now...
