hiya everyone this is my first post, thought i would come on thsis forum because ive had enough of all the negative comments the contestants got on the forum i use to use which was digital spy.


great game today ,unlucky mark! but he played right to the end which i admire

Very good game today, but the curse of box 20 strikes again.

Fair enough, but for me £18k wouldn't be nearly enough to go, seeing as the £35k, £50k and £250k were all still there. That's not to say I wouldn't panic and take it, though...and as it turned out, I'd have been right to!

Awwww- it was a GREAT show today- really enjoyable and exciting. Mark is a brilliant character and won a really decent sum- though I SO wish he'd won lots more.

Ye Gods though- WHAT was Noel wearing today?! Absolutely hideous, whatever it was!

And welcome to the forums, Andy_S!

Liked Mark, thought he blooming deserved the £250,000!

Very good game, nice lad

18k and 20k were both great offers. If you're saying that 18k was a great offer than so, naturally, was the 20k. I still maintain that calling him greedy is churlish and ridiculous knowing that the aim of the game is to win as much money as possible. The 18k offer was a close decision but if you want to win money, you have to prepared to gamble. The first 250k winner will undoubtedly face difficult decisions like Mark's no deal at 18k today...if everyone were to play it safe, the game wouldn't live.

Poor Mark - I was tense all the way through that game - really wanted him to do well.

what a show... sad the gamble didn't pay off for mark.

and it all started so well

Progress graph

Another good game, he played it well throughout, though I think the rollercoaster ride got to him a bit.

The chances of keeping the top five intact for two rounds, is something that happens less than 10% of the time. A 5/14 chance of winning at least £35,000 is good enough reason to go all the way regardless, in my opinion.

£18,000 was a remarkably dogged offer from the banker, only 40% of the average. Half the time, the average would have been at least £58,000 with five boxes, as shown on the graph, and the offer would have soared if he didn't find the £250,000.

On another note, I'd like to talk about the prediction system that I was using last week, which I have been meaning to talk about for a while.

In the progress graph for today's game, there are yellow lines between the average and the median, and they are based on predicting what the average will likely be with five boxes and two boxes remaining.

I've noticed the banker often makes his offers close to the 'two box median', or the median of all possible two box averages you can have. He does this in most games, and the offers will usually approach and jump above this line, though he will often drop the offer towards the median after a bad round.

For example, reading from the graph's second round, with an average of £38,000, the two box median line says you can expect to have an average of £25,000 if you keep going up to the two box stage. The banker's offer reflects what you would likely deal at in that scenario.

So even if you are unlikely to win the average amount, the two box median gives you a more realistic expectation of what you can win by continuing, and the banker's offers are based on this number, or on a similar system.

The earlier predictions were me guessing whether the banker will go above or below this line, and by how much.

Eventually, the spreadsheet with this system will be able to predict where the average will likely be with any number of boxes left, and you will be able to download it from my site in the near future.

It won't be able to tell you what the banker will offer you, though.

What a great game and 5k ain't that bad. Welldone Mark!

I'm having a mind blank as to who Mark actually is...

Missed todays game as my car broke... stupid clutch.

But £5k is a nice sum, better than a number of people.

Stood between Becca and Drew and had a strong Liverpudlian accent.

Nope - still nothing...

I obviously haven't been paying attention for the past few weeks!

look at these pictures



http://dond.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?p=49127#49127

Ooooooooh, MARK! Of course!!

Thanks very much David!

Great game Mark, but really unlucky at the end

Nasty, nasty turnaround at the end. £18,000 was a very low offer for the board actually, looking at the Bother's Bar statistics; our arbitrary FD figure was over £21,000, and given previous Banker behaviour that could easily have translated to a £25,000+ offer.

But here's the conspiracy. The Banker implied it was walking money, which on that board it wasn't. He'd cracked the system, and the next box was the £250,000, and £50,000 went in that round too. I wouldn't bat an eyelid if it was the first time, but there's been enough coincidences to make me nervous. I really hope there's no conspiracy here, because this game deserves better.

That annoys me how you think there is a fix, just because of luck turning around. If Glenn knew what was in the boxes, he wouldn't offer as much for people who have really low sums of money in their boxes. Having said that, it is coincidental how box 20 has a curse on the players who have it. Dave E and Tan have won low sums of money with it, and it had cruel twists of fate with Julia, Linda, Shell and Mark's games. I'm not sure a box has had so much bad luck with the players.