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Tom22

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:48 pm    Author: Tom22    Post subject:

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Stats after Round 5
Offer: £8,000
Mean: £10,770.00
Offer (%): 74.28%
Fair Deal: £6,455.02
Volatility: 1.86
Redometer: 9 (↑20)

Board
£100
£750

£3,000
£15,000
£35,000


Very nice offer!


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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:49 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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Noel asks Jimbo what he thinks of that, and he replies that it is a great offer, and it depends how far Lisa wants to push it now... Lisa says it's a great sum of money, but it's not the figure she had in mind when joining the show...

Lisa says

NO DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:49 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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Ooh that's a good offer... and as I was saying in yesterday's show thread, I'd try and no deal anything less than £10k unless it was a good offer on a 5-box board which was slightly unstable... so I think I'd deal here. :D

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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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The only two pairings that are really going to increase the £8,000 offer are £3k vs £35k and £15k vs £35k... and she's now lost the chance of having the latter.

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:51 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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That was another brave call says Noel

Next round

18 - £15,000

5 - £750

17 - £100 Newbie Col

Banker time with £3,000 and £35,000 remaining

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:51 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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I'd have Dealt there too, the £3k provided some stability but it was pretty generous relative to the mean. Though the two blues being high might have given me something to think about.

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basicasic

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:51 pm    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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YESSSSS

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:52 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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Noel tells the banker about the good turnaround, and how courage is being rewarded again...

Banker offers

£15,000

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:52 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Turns out it'd have been right to think about going on in this instance!

What's the record number of consecutive games where taking the box was the route to an OPW?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:52 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject:

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KP wrote:
I'd have Dealt there too, the £3k provided some stability but it was pretty generous relative to the mean. Though the two blues being high might have given me something to think about.


I was undecided but I'd have dealt Shed's 10K. tough call.


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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I suspect a £16k offer might be coming up here, based on the generosity of the previous one... £15k isn't too far off and bearing in mind that even a high blue vs £35,000 can produce an offer below £10k, I think £15k is very good. Had I played on, I'd deal here...

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Tom22

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:53 pm    Author: Tom22    Post subject:

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YESS! What a turnaround! Shame about the £15k though.

Stats after Round 6
Offer: £15,000
Mean: £19,000.00
Offer (%): 78.95%
Fair Deal: £14,623.48
Volatility: 11.67
Redometer: 9 (↑↓0)

Board
£3,000
£35,000


I think this now comes down to whats £15k worth...


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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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That is a very strong offer says Noel, and it's tricky now... Noel tells Lisa that the swap is not guaranteed at the end if she is thinking about box 7, and Lisa tells him that she always said she would never swap at the end if offered it...


Lisa says

NO DEAL

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basicasic

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:54 pm    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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OMG I'm praying !!!

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Lewis246

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:55 pm    Author: Lewis246    Post subject:

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That was a shock :shock: !

Not sure what I'd have done there, was a testing offer.


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:55 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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I completely agree with Tom there, this comes down to what £15,000 is worth. Is the gap between £3k and £15k bigger than the gap between £15k and £35k in terms of what it's worth for you? Me, I'm not in the least bit sure of that. I'd have expected £16k not £15k though, a doubling of the £8k.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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Didn't Rossano get an offer of £10,050 on a £1k vs £35k board? I think that shows how good the £15k offer is... the banker seems to dis-regard £20k and £35k most of the time when they're in the final two. :?

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Tom22

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:55 pm    Author: Tom22    Post subject:

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Come on please be £35,000!!!


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:56 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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I think it's safe to say the Banker's learned a lesson...

...that or we're seeing a small-scale version of what we saw after Laura's game, though it's still too early to tell on that front...

The £15k still not being enough... ooh. I want to think it's a clear Deal and then I think otherwise :S

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Craig

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:57 pm    Author: Craig    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:33 pm
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NOOOO!!!


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