The only reason I would 'always swap' is so that it is the equivalent of choosing your own box, rather than the one that's assigned in a random draw.

In the long run, statistically speaking, swapping will be a value-neutral option. It doesn't change the odds one bit.

By "statistically" I simply meant in the show's history, it has been more successful so far.

Ah yes, understood. Though IIRC only as a result of this week. The apt word might be 'historically' rather than 'statistically'. But I digress.

Back to today, and while dealing with three higher on the board may seem odd, I'm not at all convinced it was a bad call. Might have gone on myself, I might well not, but her decision was certainly not worthy of censure. I'm not sure any decision is, though AMO rejections or certain highly cautious Deals might be worthy of a critique of one's approach or one's mathematical aptitude.

If anybody ever dealt the 1st or 2nd offer I'd throw my telly in the sea.

[quote="basicasic"]If anybody ever dealt the 1st or 2nd offer I'd throw my telly in the sea. [/quote

]

I now have a great incentive to get on the show!

It depends what a blue vs 50K offer would produce. If it was 15-18K which it probably would be, I'd think it's a risk worth taking so I'm pretty certain I'd no deal today.

I was admittedly frustrated at Bindya's deal earlier in the year!

It was a bad call. She had £50k in her box. How much worse could it get.

Mathematical aptitude plays no part in the game in my opinion. Almost without exception the players play 'by the seat of their pants'. They judge offers based on their outright amount with little or no relationship to the board and once the magic £20k is breached in terms of offers most deal irrespective of their boards.

I'll agree with the general thrust of that, though it's a long, long way short of being a universal rule.

I'll add this: nobody's willing to deal for less than £10,000 however vulnerable their position. If there was a £3,000 AMO on 10p/£5k most people would probably No Deal it, including some of the 'cautious' people here. I wouldn't. Conversely, I'd take £18k, and possibly £15k, on blue/£50k.

People are too target driven and probably don't assess the board. It was a bit of a shame today as that was one of the best boards to get a power 5 amount on.

And that works both ways. Why was turning down £40,550 on £15k/£100k so much more shocking than turning down £5,100 on £5/£15k? I for one would instantly take the latter and reject the former.

Whether you're a Wakeyist, a Greenyist or an analyst, you have to agree that some contestants are just plain irrational. (Though you might disagree on which ones - though I think we can all agree on this one.

I thought the offer was very generous - I was expecting the banker to pull his old 'put it on the board' trick and offer £20,000 to match the sequence Joan had with the reds

That was a strange board situation really - dealing at 5-box when there are three amounts higher than the offer might appear silly at first glance. But when you look at it, there's only a 20% chance of the offer going up, and a 10% chance of being left with nothing. And I'm sure there's a lot of contestants who couldn't no-deal any significant offer at that stage when two blues are left on the board.

You will always see more play-to-the-end big wins from "turnaround" games (Laura, Gaz, Maria, Lynne...) than you will from very strong boards. Most contestants will always be very target driven, and it's a fair comment that for a lot of people less than £10k is an automatic no-deal and more than £20k is an automatic deal. It seems perhaps most people's definition of life-changing money lies somewhere between those two amounts!

Anyway, let's not the "Wakeyasic debate" overshadow the fact that she was a great contestant on the wings and in the chair, and also that we have seen three good swaps in the space of three games!

[quote="KP"] Note also that these have a substantial readership amongst old people - probably the most substantial age group watching TV at 4:15pm.

So how old are you then KP. You can't tell me its just retired people on this fansite who watch DOND regularly, I don't think so. There is a huge student fanbase, and anyway, this is supposed to be about Joan's game. I love her, she is a darling. She just played safe and did not throw caution to the wind. She could have taken out the 3 reds, worst case scenario I know but we have seen things happen. Brenda.

Statistically the mean was 32K so the offer was reasonable but there was a 60% chance of more in the box. A very odd board.
I think I'd go on in that scenario, I've made a rule for myself that I'd go on at 5 box with 3 higher than the offer unless the offer's much closer to the mean.

I'd risk an all or peanuts finish. e.g. blue vs 50K.

Well we don't really know, but my guess is about 75 ..........


duck and runs .....

Oh yeah, Terri's game. Reading that made me wonder if that was the game in which the term "OPL" was invented, and reading a comment from KP himself on the Bother's Bar commentary appears to confirm it!

that was odd. She wasn't willing to risk £3,050 for an extra £11,200!

The offer should ahve been around 6K to contemplate a deal.

I'll drink to that. Water, mind, as I'm teetotal...

It was a bit of a shame she didn't no deal but she still won a great sum of money and the average of the last 4 games is £37,250! This is a great week!