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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:27 pm    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject: DoND USA: February 18, 2008 ***SPOILER WARNING!***

Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:09 pm
Location: Eternal Freedom
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THIS... IS... SPARTAAAAAA!!!!

Actually, it isn't, but since DoND USA tends to go over the top sometimes, I thought I'd try it myself for once.

Anyway, welcome to another recap, my first as a moderator of the international section. And just as I said to the staff here, I promise to do a good job and do the forum proud. But enough about me. Let's focus on Katie Henslin and her game.

Last time, Katie began her Million Dollar Mission game with 13 million-dollar cases. In other words, the entire right side of the board was comprised of million-dollar cases, which means that there is a 50 / 50 shot at winning $1 million. In her first round, Katie knocked out only 2 million-dollar cases, and was presented with a record first offer of $280,000. She declined it, and time was called just before the start of the second round. Here is what happened in the rest of her game.

Round 2 - 5 to open
Briefcases 5 ($.01), 17 ($10), 9 ($1,000,000), 13 ($1,000,000), and 25 ($1,000,000) eliminated. Banker offers $236,000; NO DEAL.

Round 3 - 4 to open
Briefcases 20 ($1,000,000), 6 ($1,000,000), 14 ($1,000,000), and 1 ($75) eliminated. Banker offers $193,000; NO DEAL.

Round 4 - 3 to open
Briefcases 3 ($50), 19 ($5), and 26 ($400) eliminated. Banker offers $318,000; NO DEAL.

Round 5 - 2 to open
Briefcases 10 ($1,000,000) and 23 ($1,000,000) eliminated. Banker offers $343,000; NO DEAL.

Round 6 - 1 to open
Briefcase 16 ($100) eliminated. Banker offers $405,000; NO DEAL.

Round 7 - 1 to open
Briefcase 12 ($1,000,000) eliminated. Banker offers $327,000; NO DEAL.

Round 8 - 1 to open
Briefcase 24 ($25) eliminated. Banker offers $491,000; NO DEAL.

Round 9 - 1 to open
Briefcase 7 ($1,000,000) eliminated. Banker offers $449,000; DEAL.

Final Winnings: $449,000, which puts Katie at 6th on the all-time winnings list, just $15,000 under No. 5, Thorpe Schoenle.

Did Katie just sell her chance at a cool million? We'll find out as Howie opens her case, No. 8, to reveal...

Contestant’s briefcase opened; briefcase contains $1,000,000. (D'oh!)
Unopened Briefcase: 22 ($200)

Result: An OBW that could have been prevented (see below).

Mark's Commentary: Our second-largest win of the season turned out to be not the greatest deal in the end. The Million Dollar Mission could have ended right here if Katie has listened to her husband, who said she should open Case 22 instead of Case 7. Oh, well. Still, $449,000 is nothing to sneeze at. Congrats to Katie on being our second $400,000+ winner of the season.

For many, the $491,000 and $449,000 offers would have been walking money, but I would have abandoned my normally conservative style of play and went for it already. Yes, you heard me right. Why would I have done that, you ask? Simple. For the sole purpose of ending the Million Dollar Mission.

The next game will still be in MDM mode, as a couple will play for $1 million with a 13-MDC board. DoND USA's Banker said in his blog, and I quote,
Well, hopefully we can put this silly Million Dollar Mission to bed tonight. It's getting ridiculous. How easy do I have to make this game for you people? It's like playing squash against someone and agreeing not to use your arms. I mean, come on. If this lady can't win the million tonight, I might as well be facing off against a monkey.
My thoughts exactly, Mr. Banker. Couldn't have said it better myself.

And there you have it, folks. The floor is now yours, my friends, so discuss away.

_________________
I have berated my last contestant and have nothing else to say. Roll credits. Fade to black. | Dr. Hindsight | April 18, 2006 - December 7, 2023


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lathebault

PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:45 pm    Author: lathebault    Post subject:

Joined: Sun Jan 20, 2008 4:05 pm
Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
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FFS! Even with half the cases at the million they still cant win it! And she has the bloody million in the finish go for it ffs! They aren't helping the situation by offering high offers at the end. They should have chucked in $100,000 on that finish. Anyone who deals that needs brain surgery.

_________________
The ace gambler knows when not to fold.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 12:47 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
International Forums Moderator
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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But they didn't. They offered $449,000, and she took it.

The only way this is going to be won is if a) someone refuses to Deal whatsoever - in which case it's a 50% chance of it being won, but a 100% chance said person won't really benefit from the million because s/he clearly won't really be hurting for money; b) the normal trends of this season (Deal if and only if there's one MDC left) continue, and an all-MDC finish emerges, and that's a 24% chance.

It'll come, but it may be a while. This was easily the nearest miss, one different pick at the end would have done it.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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NoDeal!

PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:53 pm    Author: NoDeal!    Post subject:

Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:19 pm
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That 491k offer at 3-case was atrocious!! It should've been 200k more IMO. The average was 667k and the banker usually makes an AMO offer at 3-and 2-case. Also, she should've listened to her husband and NDed $449k. Oh well. Hopefully on Monday we'll find a winner. :lol:

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I am from the US and this DOND is 10x better than ours!


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