We're up to seven million-dollar cases this time. Will the million be won tonight? Let's ask the online Magic 8 Ball ( http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ssanty/cgi-bin/eightball.cgi )...
Question: Will someone win a million dollars on DoND USA tonight?
*shakes Magic 8 Ball*
Magic 8 Ball's Answer: No Way! (No, I am not making this up. This was the ball's actual answer.)
Let's see if the ball was telling the truth...

Contestant: Shequila Farrelly
Chosen Case: 10

Round 1 - 6 to open
Briefcases 2 ($1,000,000), 16 ($50,000), 22 ($75), 6 ($1,000,000), 5 ($10,000), and 18 ($100) eliminated. Banker offers $145,000; NO DEAL.
Note: $145,000 is now the highest-ever opening offer.

Round 2 - 5 to open
Briefcases 8 ($1), 23 ($400), 1 ($5,000), 15 ($1,000,000), and 17 ($1,000) eliminated. Banker offers $166,000; NO DEAL.

Round 3 - 4 to open
Briefcases 9 ($10), 24 ($1,000,000), 11 ($200), and 4 ($300) eliminated. Banker offers $180,000; NO DEAL.

Round 4 - 3 to open
Briefcases 20 ($1,000,000), 13 ($50), and 21 ($25) eliminated. Banker offers $197,000; NO DEAL.

Round 5 - 2 to open
Briefcases 12 ($1,000,000) and 19 ($1,000,000) eliminated. Banker offers $15,000; NO DEAL.

Round 6 - 1 to open
Briefcase 26 ($750) eliminated. Banker offers $18,000; NO DEAL.

Round 7 - 1 to open
Briefcase 7 ($500) eliminated. Banker offers $27,000; NO DEAL.

Round 8 - 1 to open
Briefcase 14 ($5) eliminated. Banker offers $36,000; DEAL.

FINAL WINNINGS: $36,000.

Proveouts
Round 9 - 1 to open
Briefcase 3 ($75,000) eliminated.

Contestant’s briefcase opened; briefcase contains $25,000.
UNOPENED BRIEFCASE: 25 ($.01).

Looks like the online Magic 8 Ball was right. How about that?
Next time: 8 million-dollar cases. This is where Million-Dollar Mission v1.0 stopped last time. Is this where Million-Dollar Mission v2.0 will end as well? Back to the online Magic 8 Ball for this one...
Question: Will Million-Dollar Mission v2.0 stop at 8 million-dollar cases like it did the first time around?
Magic 8 Ball's Answer: Outlook Not So Good (Again, I am not making this up.)
And there you have it. Let the analysis begin...

All recap info courtesy of http://heelsrule1988.tripod.com/dealornodeal/index.htm .

what's with everyone losing both $1,000,000 cases at the "2 to open" stage of the game?!?! ugh, such bad luck!

btw, I did the Magic 8 ball, and here's what I asked...

Interesting. What you should have asked is, "Will there need to be more than 13 million-dollar cases on the board before someone wins the million dollars?"
Also, this is, like, the second or third time that someone lost both of their remaining MDCs in Round 5. People tend to really crash and burn at that stage. I wonder why that is...
And just for fun, I would have probably dealt at $197,000. For me, it would have been too risky to keep playing. I tend to play ultra-conservatively. Sure, I might not have won the million, but hey, if I'm being offered almost $200,000, I'd most likely take it.

Gah! Another TBW thanks to greed! I would have gotten the OPW if I played (The $180K was tempting, but too conservatiive to deal at 11-casewith 3 $1M cases still left. The $197K at 8-case was an easy deal for me, though.) Too bad she dealt too late.

With her dealing too late (She dealt at 3-case which was nowhere near her peak offer at 8-case, even if she did make a profit on her case.), that makes now, what: 38 consecutive games without an OPW?

The next contestant better take that fourth offer, even if he/she has the $1M in his/her case. (I still shocked that only ONE contestant has taken the fourth offer so far this season! I thought I'd be a common occurance the way Season 2's games ended. Either that, or get an OPW . (Heck, I'd be happy with an OPW if it means dealing at 15-case!)

What are the odds that we've only seen ONE OPW and ONE 8-case deal so far this season. Both those things are quite remarkable (and not in a good way) if you ask me.

3rd time hitting 2 $1,000,000 cases in 2-case round. How unlucky! The highest win among those 3 are $36,000, and one of them was empty-handed.

What I find amazing is here we are 40 games into the season, and only ONE contestant has taken the fourth offer. ONE! I was expecting 8-case dealing to be a frequent occurance this season because of the games last season (8-case was one of the best times to deal then, too). 8-case is probably THE best time to deal, INCLUDING playing to the end, and only ONE player has taken it? I could see ND'ing the offer if the offer is stingy for the board or if the board is safe, but there's not many games I've seen lately where that's been the case. If it's a 2-case game and the offer's about 60% of the mean or more at 8-case, see ya!

Then, after ND'ing at 8-case when the odds usually favor dealing, they often deal at 4-case when the odds actually favor playing on. Go figure.

Or earlier still... although usually the generosity is greater. However, again I'd have been out of there at eight-case tonight, although to hit the 1-in-28 chance AGAIN... third time in this Mission, just unbelievable - I thought it was 1-in-56 but it's not, but even 1-in-28 three times is amazing.

If I was still playing, I'd have taken the first AMO, the $27k.

I just love how DoND's desperate attempts at a jackpot winner have produced nothing but small wins.

Even more funnier how other game shows have achieved a jackpot win without even trying! (1 vs 100, Power of 10, Duel, etc.)

In fairness, Duel was set up that it had to produce a $1m win, it just didn't make it that obvious!! But absolutely right on the other two!

Here's proof that the Million-Dollar Mission will continue.

Coming Up!
Monday, January 21st 9/8c
The stakes get higher and higher when the number of $1 million cases climbs to EIGHT!

Wednesday, January 23rd 8/7c
Will Miss Tater Day win big when the Million-Dollar Mission continues?

This is from NBC's official site for DoND USA, www.nbc.com/dond .

Looks like we're getting 8 and then 9 million-dollar cases on the board over the next couple of episodes. Good Lord, won't someone please win the jackpot so that this mindless nonsense will stop already? So far, several people have struck out trying to win the million dollars; some worse than others. This is becoming like bowling with bumper pads - it takes all the fun out of the game and makes it too easy.

I agree. The inane addition of Ellen just made this show more annoying...and the "Army Wives" storyline was just too bogus for words....granted, my family all served and my wife was an Air Force brat, but come on now...

The following information on the Deal or No Deal schedule came from Howie Mandel's official website and MySpace page:


This mission COULD end by the end of the month!

Let's hope so! This has to end soon! The dates listed start from when they were using 6 million-dollar cases, and the last date is where they would have 10. If someone doesn't win the million dollars with a whopping 10 MDCs available, then there is absolutely no hope for this show, and it will be cancelled in the coming months. Mark my words (no pun intended).

If the player does not have one of the 10 $1,000,000 case, I think the mission will continue until one player has $1,000,000 in case and up to 13 $1,000,000 cases availible.

10 MDCs is a ridiculous enough amount of them already, there is no need for any more.

Has anyone else noticed how bad the contestants seem to be at picking out a MDC for themself, given no one has picked one yet in this mission.

Probability of nobody picking a $1m case in the first six games of the mission (starting with 2 MDCs):

(24/26)*(23/26)*(22/26)...*(19/26) = 0.313707

Almost a one-out-of-three chance, but yeah, sure feels dreadful.

Probability of going another three games without a MDC on the table: (18/26)*(17/26)*(16/26) = 0.278562.

Oh, and 'Will primetime "Deal or No Deal" be cancelled before the end of 2008?' was my question, and the answer was 'maybe'...