Well, here we go again. 8 MDCs tonight. Let's see what happens.

Contestant: John Buonviaggio
Chosen Trash Can*: 8

*Note: Because the contestant was a former NYC sanitation worker, all 26 cases have been replaced by 26 trash cans for this game.

Round 1 - 6 to open
Trash cans 12 ($5), 11 ($200), 22 ($1), 2 ($500), 13 ($1,000,000), and 18 ($400) eliminated. Banker offers $155,000 (New Record!); NO DEAL.

Round 2 - 5 to open
Trash cans 10 ($50,000), 3 ($1,000,000), 23 ($1,000,000), 4 ($10), and 7 ($1,000,000) eliminated. Banker offers $109,000; NO DEAL.

Round 3 - 4 to open
Trash cans 17 ($100), 15 ($1,000,000), 21 ($25), and 1 ($50) eliminated. Banker offers $168,000; NO DEAL.

Round 4 - 3 to open
Trash cans 14 ($1,000), 5 ($10,000), and 24 ($1,000,000) eliminated. Banker offers $146,000; NO DEAL.

Round 4 - 2 to open
Trash cans 25 ($1,000,000) and 6 ($.01) eliminated. Banker offers $94,000; DEAL.

FINAL WINNINGS: $94,000

Proveouts
Round 6 - 1 to open
Trash can 20 ($25,000) eliminated. Banker offers $138,000.

Round 7 - 1 to open
Trash can 26 ($5,000) eliminated. Banker offers $222,000.

Round 8 - 1 to open
Trash can 16 ($300) eliminated. Banker offers $303,000.

Round 9 - 1 to open
Trash can 9 ($1,000,000) eliminated.

Round 10 - Final 2
Contestant’s trash can opened; trash can contains $75.

UNOPENED TRASH CAN: 19 ($750)

Result: Most likely an OBW.

There's time to start a second game, and there will be 9 MDCs available in this one. The good news? Howie says that this is the last MDM game, so the madness will come to and end very soon !

Contestant: Britney Lewzader
Chosen Case (we're back to cases now): 1

Round 1 - 6 to open
Briefcases 10 ($5,000), 25 ($25,000), 19 ($75), 2 ($10), 16 ($25), and 11 ($1,000,000) eliminated. Banker offers $192,000 (New Record!); NO DEAL.

Round 2 - 5 to open
Briefcases 13 ($200), 3 ($1,000,000), 26 ($500), 4 ($300), and 24 ($1,000,000) eliminated. Banker offers $244,000(Another New Record!); NO DEAL.

Round 3 - 4 to open
Wednesday

And that's what happened. Will Britney win the million dollars? Find out next time, when Britney has the added burden of keeping the show alive on her shoulders. If she doesn't win the million, the show is doomed.

All recap info courtesy of Jordan's DoND Recaps Page @ http://heelsrule1988.tripod.com/dealornodeal/index.htm .

Some GLAC had $1,000,000 in the game such as 7, 9, 13 & 25. Others are 8 & 10 are not $1,000,000.

After this show, only case #10 is yet to have the $1,000,000 this season. Case #24 has had a quite astonishing run of high numbers, given it's had the $1,000,000 5 times in January, pretty much all in a row.

While another TBW (How many of those have we had lately?), at least this one was accomplished by dealing too EARLY instead of too late, which is at least some refreshment. And, another person using the "No deal until there is only one case greater than the offer, then deal" strategy which isn't always the best, but seems to be popular.

I can't say what I would have done here. It could be any of those, although the $94K was the least likely.

$168K (11-case): With already down to three $1M cases, I'd be strongly tempted to deal. I'd probably would have reluctantly no-dealt since it's still 11-case and three great ones, but if I was in a cautious mood, I might have dealt.

$146K (8-case): It's stingier than most of the 8-case offers lately and it's impossible getting an OPW from dealing this since I turned down a higher offer at 11-case. But, it's already a 2-case game! I'd probably would reluctantly dealt this, but I can understand no-dealing THIS 8-case offer and might have.

$94K (6-case) It's the lowest offer of the game so far, so it'd be the biggest banker victory ever if the $1M was in my case. But, it is a 1-case game at this point! If I was still playing, I probably would have no-dealt this, but dealing is understandable.

$138K (5-case) It's even riskier here because it's even MORE of a 1-case game with the $25K now gone. I can't say what I'd have done here.

$222K (4-case) If I was still playing, I'd be about 95% sure to deal here. ND'ing at 4-case when it's one huge amount and three left-side amounts is VERY risky and not something I recommend, despite the fact the low amounts usually go in this round.

$303K (3-case) If still playing, I'd be 100% sure to have dealt here!

Are we going for a record in most TBWs (where contestants deal for less than half of what they could have won but still beat their case) in a season? I also have to laugh when howie says "You made a GREAT deal.", when a player gets a TBW (because he?she beats the case contents and therefore avoids an OBW). IMO, a player getting a TBW did not make a "great deal", even if he/she did sell his/her case for a profit because he/she would have won much more had he/she dealt at the best time (whether earlier ot later).


I also would have been very tempted to deal the $244K at the end of the show. I'd PROBABLY have ended up no dealing it considering it's 15-case with six greater, but I would have been tempted!

I'd have been very tempted to go at 11-case, but I suspect I'd have gone at $138k or $146k. Don't blame him for taking $94k either.

As for the second game, I'd play on and hope for one more good round and then get out.

But if you do that, not only will you make the second coming of the Million-Dollar Mission a failure, but you'll also doom the show for good. This player must win the million dollars at all costs. The fate of the show is in her hands.

I think the general perceived rule is to never deal:

A. At 11-case or earlier.
B: Whenever there still are three or more cases that are greater than the offer.

If you deal under either of the above circumstances, you'd really be taunted and embarrased unless such a deal would result in a OPW (or least some kind of a player win involving no proveout offers greater than what you dealt at and the case amount must be lower). Any other time (8-case or later or whenever there are two or less case amounts greater than the offer) fair game depending on the board, the offer, the risk/reward, your mood, and your goals.

Still, whenever you're talking about $200K+ early offers, it's real tempting to deal even under the circumstances above.

Take, for example, the $168K offer with three MDCs left. For the OPW to be achieved, at least one MDC must be gone by 8-case, at least two gone by 6-case, and all three gone by 4-case. Not a likely parley, and if it doesn't happen, you'd never hear the end it and be taunted for life. OTOH, taking the $146K is more unstandable, as at least here, it's 8-case with only two MDCs left, so ND'ing would be perceived to be riskier and therefore dealing that one would be understoandable whether it would end up resulting in the TPW or even if both MDCs would make it to 6-case and beyond and one of the remaining MDCs would be in the contestant's case, so the embarrasment factor is gone. Taking the $94K is even more understandable as it's now 6-case and a 1-case game!

And, I don't see the "Target Strategy" (Meaning, no deal until the offer reaches a certain amount (say $100K or what), and then deal when it does without much attention to the board, volatility, or offer generosity.) used too much on the USA Version.

I think the general perceived rule is to never deal:

A. At 11-case or earlier.
B: Whenever there still are three or more cases that are greater than the offer.

If you deal under either of the above circumstances, you'd really be taunted and embarrased unless such a deal would result in a OPW (or least some kind of a player win involving no proveout offers greater than what you dealt at and the case amount must be lower). Any other time (8-case or later or whenever there are two or less case amounts greater than the offer) fair game depending on the board, the offer, the risk/reward, your mood, and your goals.

Still, whenever you're talking about $200K+ early offers, it's real tempting to deal even under the circumstances above.

Take, for example, the $168K offer with three MDCs left. For the OPW to be achieved, at least one MDC must be gone by 8-case, at least two gone by 6-case, and all three gone by 4-case. Not a likely parley, and if it doesn't happen, you'd never hear the end it and be taunted for life. OTOH, taking the $146K is more unstandable, as at least here, it's 8-case with only two MDCs left, so ND'ing would be perceived to be riskier and therefore dealing that one would be understoandable whether it would end up resulting in the TPW or even if both MDCs would make it to 6-case and beyond and one of the remaining MDCs would be in the contestant's case, so the embarrasment factor is gone. Taking the $94K is even more understandable as it's now 6-case and a 1-case game!

And, I don't see the "Target Strategy" (Meaning, no deal until the offer reaches a certain amount (say $100K or what), and then deal when it does without much attention to the board, volatility, or offer generosity.) used too much on the USA Version.

None of the 7 people had $1,000,000 in case from 2 to 8, so next player may have $1,000,000 in case.

These offers are insane!! She took out 2-1 million dollar cases in the 2nd round, but the offer went up from $192k to $244k. I can't believe offers are that high this fast. In the 1st game, I think I would've dealt at $222k or maybe $303k. However, I would NEVER deal with 2-1 million dollar cases still up there, especially if it's 6-case or less. My prediction is that this next woman either knocks out all the millions and wins chump change, or takes a $400k+ deal with 2-3 millions still up there. I just don't see her winning it, but I sense a big win.

My strategy for the MDM games are:

Three of more MDCs remaining: Pretty much always no-deal, unless the offer is near or above the mean, it's at least 8-case or later, AND I'm in a really cautious mood.


Two MDCs remaining:

11-case: Usually a reluctant ND, barring a generous offer. Although I'd be likely to knock out a MDC, I'd still expect a somewhat decent get-out at 8-case, knocking both out would be really unlucky to knock both out.

8-case: Usually deal, as long as the offer is at least about $125-$130K. There is a 50% chance of knocking out at least one, a 3.5% chance of taking out both, and I'd be left to either taking a pretty big loss or risking everything until at least 4-case. Besides, big amounts are known to go in Round Five quite often! ND'ing in a 2-case game at 8-case is too risky for my liking, barring a really stingy offer. So, likely deal here.

6-case: Depends on the offer and my mood. ND'ing a 2-case game is safer at 6-case than 8-case (Only a 33% chance of knocking out one instead of 50%, 0% of knocking out both instead of 3.5%, and big amounts don't go QUITE as often in Round Six as they do in Round Five), so probably more likely ND. But, a generous enough offer would still take me out.

5-case or later: Usually no deal. I'd might be risking a third to half my money, but if I plan to deal when it gets down to one (which I would at this point), I'd still be guarenteed pretty big money by this point.


One MDC Remaining:
Depending on the offers, what I turned down earlier compared to what the current offer is, and my mood: Undecided at 11-case (proabably slightly more apt to no-deal here), probably usually deal at 8-case, probably usually no-deal at 6-case (I'd usually be taking losses here.), undecided and depending at 5-case, usually deal at 4-case, almost always deal at 3-case or 2-case.

So, I proabably would be too cautious to be likely to win the $1M, barring extremely good luck, but I'd also be less likely than most to leave with a left-side amount.