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jimmy7945

PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 6:04 pm    Author: jimmy7945    Post subject: Dealing & Results in USA

Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 4:44 pm
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I haven't update all the list here.
Offer taken:
7th offer: 20 times
8th offer: 13 times
6th offer: 10 times
Contestant's case: 9 times
9th offer: 8 times
5th offer: 5 times
4th offer: once
1st, 2nd, 3rd offer: none
Total: 66 games(include unaired game)

Best amount:
Contestant's case: 15 times
9th offer: 12 times
4th offer: 10 times
8th offer: 9 times
6th & 7th offer: 5 times
3rd & 5th offer: 3 times
1st & 2nd offer: twice
Total: 66 games(include unaired game)

Best game mean:

Contestant's case: 15 times
4th offer: 10 times
9th offer: 8 times
1st & 8th offer: 7 times
2nd offer: 6 times
6th offer: 5 times
3rd & 7th offer: 3 times
5th offer: twice
Total: 66 games(include unaired game)

_________________
BigJon PC Game stats:
Outright Player Wins: 4
Most money won: $366,000/$851,000(Deal)
Least money won: $5(Deal)
Best deal: $365,975($366,000 for $25)/14,640 times(same)
Worst deal: $845,000($155,000 for million)/$1,399,000($851,000 for 2.25M)/15.5%(same)


Last edited by jimmy7945 on Fri Apr 04, 2008 1:20 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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AArnett

PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:35 pm    Author: AArnett    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:51 am
Warnings: 0
Dealing at 4-case is strategically a good time to deal because that's usually the first offer of the game that's near the mean, and playing past 4-box is always risky. The thing is that only small amounts ever seem to go in the eighth round, meaning that dealing a 4-box would hardly ever produce an OPW. That doesn't mean that the large amount wouldn't go in 4-case, it just means it doesn't often.

When I did the simular stats last year, the contestant's case was near the top, but in my case, instead of dealing at 2-case, dealing at 3-case was better. But, it does seem like the largest remaining amount from the Final Four does seem to either go in the ninth round, be in the Final Two but not in the contestant's case, or be in the contestant's case proprotionally much more often than in the eighth round, and thus make ND'ing the 4-box offer the winning decision very rarely.

Dealing at 8-case ranked very high (third) both times. I still found it interesting that only one contestant has dealt it so far this season.


Still, I find it interesting that 4-case this season has tied with 15-box and 20-box for being the WORST time to deal (at least in terms in getting the OPW from dealing from it).

I did know that 6-cae and 5-case are bad times to deal, though.

So, we've had 37 games. IIANM, we've had only ONE OPW. That's less than 3%! That is remarkable in itself!


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:47 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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AArnett wrote:
I still found it interesting that only one contestant has dealt it [offer 4] so far this season.


Even then, would she have dealt an all-cash offer of $50,000, or even $62,000, as opposed to $50,000 and the Wicked package? I would suspect not, and she'd have paid big time for that!

Yes, games frequently peak right at the end. Most of the rest are down to peanuts by then. Unfortunately these seem to be the ones where the contestant is still playing...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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AArnett

PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 7:32 am    Author: AArnett    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:51 am
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Yeah, youre right! It was a specialized package. What's interesting about the one 8-case deal so far was that it was taken after rejecting a higher 11-case offer!

One more interesting tibbit: 4-case has been the least often correct time to deal, but the most often dealt offer. Hmmmm. Although I stand by my assessment of 8-case dealing, if you are still playing past that stage, would it be wise to try to risk to at least 3-case. (Except in ultra-safe games or trainwreck games, I would not recommend playing past 3-case.)

But, it does seem like the gamblers usually do pick low value cases. The ones that do pick high-value cases seem to like to deal at 5-case and 6-case (not near the end).


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:36 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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And that game was also the one of the season with a second-offer peak!

Four-case seems a rational time to Deal for me because the risks are similar to eight-case (maybe a bit less as you can't take two out at once, but you're more likely to have a landmine situation by then anyway) but the rewards are a lot less significant as you're pretty close to the mean by then anyway most of the time.

It is a pretty interesting twist of luck that the landmine never seems to go in round 8, though.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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