Resultwise, 8-case dealing has generally been great because of large amounts frequently going in the following round while 4-case deals has been generally poor time result-wise because low amounts usually going in the round following it, which leads to this.

All things aside, the odds of knocking out the highest amount in the susbequent found is exactly the same (25%: 2/8 (1/4) in Round Five, 1/4 in Round Eight). There is a slight possibilities of knocking out both high amounts in Round Five while not in Round Eight. But, the 4-box offer is usually the first offer that's near the mean while the 8-case offer is usually only about half the mean, which is why no-dealing there is encouraged.

And, I don't know how this should effect the decision whether to deal or no deal or not in 8-case or 4-case, but the risk of disaster in 6-case decreseses from 25% to 17% but from 4-case to 3-case, it increases from 25% to 33%. This might affect the decion as if you do knock out the highest amount, it riskier to try to recover later in the game.

And, of course, boards usually get riskier as the game goes on.


Main question, all things aside is this: If you're brave enough to ND at 8-case with a 25% chance of disaster in the next round, should they also be brave enough to ND at 4-case with the same chance. On one hand, 4-case offers are generally more generous, and that definitely should be considered. But, big amounts tend go in the fifth round a lot more often than they do in the eighth round. If this trend continues, the big money will likely survive from 4-case to at least 3-case more so than from 8-case to 6-case. Should that also be considered?


It's not that, TBH, I'd likely play past 4-case if I were to play (mainly because I'm the more cautious type), but it does seem at least a slight bit odd that 4-case offers are taken a lot more often than 8-case offers with similar risks involved and that 8-case is such a statistically better time to deal than 4-case.