What do you think, generally speaking, considering the risk/reward potentials, banker offer generousity patterns, the odds, typical board safetiness/volailitily at the time, when the big numbers tend to go, results when the contestants dealt the various times, history, etc, etc., is the general best time to go.

I know each game is different, what is good play in one game is bad play in another. I talking about when you think is most often the best time to go.

I'm leaving out the first offer deal as that's clearly the worst strategy, in general. I have my vote made up, but I'll save it and analysis for later after seeing some replies to see if they agree with me, and to avoid biasing the poll. Still, please feel free to reply and state your reason for your vote if you do vote. Thanks!

The result is based on my BigJon PC Game.

Contestant's case had once more than 8th offer but I would dealt at 8th offer. I haven't taken my case.

6-case or after uis the best time to deal really, thats where you can be a safe gambler.

I'd say 8-case or 4-case; given the seemingly increased generosity of offers recently, I'm going for the former.

I casted my vote for "8-case deal". I'll go into details why I'd choose that.

I think we all agree that the first offer (20-box) is the worst time to deal. Hopefully, that will never happen.

I bought a US DOND CD-ROM game, and you'd be surprised how often I had games peak at 15-box! I still generally think that 15-box is too early to deal when you could at least expect a decent portion of it at 11-case or 8-case unless your luck REALLY turns, and you'd have to be pretty unlucky to have your game peak at 15-case

Dealing at 11-case is a more sensable option than dealing at 15-case as board usually get riskier as the game goes on and with fewer numbers to pick, knocking out the highest remaining amount will hurt your next offer more. Even with the highest remaining amount going 27% of the time in this round, I still think that dealing at 11-case is still a bit too cautious, as unless you have a REALLY bad fourth round, you'd still have a decent get out at 8-case, and games don't peak at 11-case too often. And, big amounts don't seem to go in the fourth round too often.

Dealing at 8-case: Now THAT's a good option. Big numbers go in the fifth round very often, it is stastically proven to be one of the best times to deal to get an OPW, and playing past 8-case is usually very risky. There's a 25% chance of the knocking the highest remaining amount, a 47% chance (if my math is correct) of knocking out at least one of the highest two amounts, and a 2% chance of knocking BOTH of them out. Dealing at 8-case should always be at least considered, even it may seem to be a bit too cautious, as it can blow big money if big money stays to near the end of the game or be in the contestant's case. But, it can save big money if it is the correct decision.

Dealing at 6-case doesn't seem like a good option to me. ND'ing the 6-case offer is usually safer than no-dealing the 8-case offer (17% chance of knocking out the highest remining amount vs. 25% chance the round before). If you're brave enough to ND at 8-case, you should be brave enough to ND at 6-case.

Dealing at 5-case: I used to think that 5-case is one of the worst times to deal. Now, the 5-case offers seem to be more generous than they used to be. But, the same can be said for 4-case offers, and big amounts don't seem to go in the seventh round too often. And, you've already taken quite a risk just to get this far. Therefore, I think if you're brave enough to ND at 8-case, you should be brave enough to ND at 5-case.


Dealing at 4-case seems like a good example of a combination of bravery and cautiousness. The offers usually start to get generous at this point, if you have big money in your game, you usually really start getting it in the offers here, and it does seem to be a popular strategy. The only problems with dealing here are that it's quite risky just to get this far before the board collapses and big amounts don't seem to go in the eighth round often, and therefore OPWs from 4-case deals aren't likely to happen. Still worth considering, but I think 8-case was better.

Dealing at 3-case is, I think, the textbook strategy. It does show quite a good combination of bravery and cautiousness, big amounts do go in the ninth round often, you can't be too disapponted if you played this far but have big money in your case, and it's always known to be very risky to play further than here. I don't think anybody in the US version has gotten an OPW after ND'ing at 3-case and playing past here. But, it's risky just to get this far, as it doesnt take extreme bad luck for the big money to be gone by this point.

Dealing at 2-case: Just like dealing at 6-case or 5-case, the risk vs. reward of dealing here does not make this an attractive option. I think it's clearly stastically proven that if you're brave enough to ND at 3-case, you should be brave enough to ND at 2-case. Most importantly of all, you've already taken a huge risk just to get this far, and if you get this far with the big money still there, the really big money does require ND'ing to the end.

No-Deal To The End: This is your only chance to win the top prize,and you most likely bet to win the REALLY big money. But, this is also the most likely bet to win the really small money. Even if you have big money in your case, you still win a nice portion of it if you can play to at least 4-case or 3-case, and ND to the end is defenitely too risky for my liking, although it is better than dealing at 2-case.

If I were to rank in order from general best to worst, I'd say:

1. Deal at 8-case.
2. Deal at 3-case.
3. Deal at 4-case.
4. No Deal To The End.
5. Deal at 11-case.
6. Deal at 5-case.
7. Deal at 2-case.
8. Deal at 6-case.
9. Deal at 15-case.
10. Deal at 20-case.

Is my accessment pretty much to be agreed with? Rank your deal times from best to worst.

Thanks!


PS: IIANM, hasn't Deal at 8-case produced the best results reguarding beating the banker than dealing at any other point in the game?

Generally I believe generosity should be the deciding factor in your decisions. Wow, strange sentence there. Also, because the offers are (or at least were) fairly well tied to the mean, unstable boards tend(ed) to demand 8- or sometimes 11-case deals, while stable boards called for at least making it to 4-case and quite often going through to the end (though actually I'd argue that take-the-case is one of the worst strategies, because the final offer is so frequently an AMO, even in active play. $110k on $1k/$200k anybody? That one got rejected, too...)

On the current US offer pattern, 8-case is probably as good a time to go as any, and with new $1m cases replacing the six-figure safety nets I would say that holds more true in the MDM. Once you get to one-case-to-open I'd say you should be looking for about 80-85% of the mean (more like 90-95% on stable boards, maybe about 70% in one-case games). This used to happen at four-case and no sooner, with the odd exception (I recall a $265k five-case offer with $500k, $1m and rubbish - I'd be out of there with that, as was the contestant); now, that kind of generosity is not uncommon at five-case. Once you get to one-case-to-open, especially with backups, the question becomes not one of whether you are prepared to take a risk, but whether the reward is seriously worth it.

The main exception to all this is Winner Takes All, where I would probably just take an 'aggressive targetist' approach, looking for about $150-200k which I think would be a winning total. Yes, I know $50k was a winning total last time. That was just bad luck and bad offers, though.

Thought you'd go for 8-case deal, AArnett!

It is very difficult to leave early because of the negative criticisms and logic people have on your game. Going to the end may judged you as confident or too knowing of the outcome.

Deal when there are only 4 cases left (including my case). The odds are difficult to beat. 25% chance of knocking the remaining huge amount is slightly high.