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Goldeneye

PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 4:56 am    Author: Goldeneye    Post subject: DoND USA: January 7, 2008 *** SPOILER WARNING! ***

Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:37 am
Location: Boston, MA, USA
Warnings: 0
The Million Dollar Mission Continues, with tonight's contestants!

Contestant #1: Guy Goudeau, who is a fan of dirt bike champion James "Bubba" Stewart

His gameboard now has four $1,000,000 cases, all introduced at the same time by Howie!

The right side of the board now looks like this:

$1,000
$5,000
$10,000
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000

Chosen case: 7, apparently since that is Bubba's bike number.

Round 1: 6 Cases to open

9: $5,000
24: $100
15: $1,000,000
12: $200,000
13: $1,000
3: $400

Banker's offer: $79,000!

NO DEAL!

Round 2: 5 Cases to open

18: $100,000
1: $25
21: $200
5: $10,000
23: $50

Banker's offer: $111,000!

NO DEAL!

Round 3: 4 Cases to open

11: $1,000,000
10: $50,000
6: $0.01 :D No new member of the One Cent club
22: $300,000

Now a two-case game, with the two million dollar cases the only real big money left.

Banker's offer: $94,000!

NO DEAL!

Round 4: 3 Cases to open

16: $500
26: $75
4: $750

Banker's offer: $166,000!

NO DEAL!

Round 5: 2 Cases to open

17: $1,000,000 One case game for sure now
19: $1,000,000 :shock: Game, set, match for the banker in some way

The 1 in 56 chance of disaster being hit again! For the second time in a week!

The Final 6 Cases

$1
$5
$10
$300
$25,000
$75,000

Banker's offer: $9,000

NO DEAL!

Round 6: 1 Case to open

8: $10

Banker's offer: $18,000!

NO DEAL!

Round 7: 1 Case to open

14: $5

Banker's offer: $27,000, which is an AMO.

DEAL!

Proveout Round 8: 1 Case to open

20: $1

Hypothetical Banker's offer: $30,000!

Proveout Round 9: 1 Case to open

2: $75,000

The Final 2 Cases would have been...

$300
$25,000

Hypothetical Banker's offer: $8,000

Howie now opens his case #7 to reveal...

7: $300

Hayley's Case #25 is revealed to complete the game...

25: $25,000

Game Summary:

Peak offer: $166,000
Case value: $300
Prize won: $27,000
Result: Technical Banker Win [84-16]

Contestant #2: Brad Falcon

His gameboard now has five $1,000,000 cases, which Howie drags it out and introduces them one at a time; which brings Brad to tears and the nickname of "The Cryin' Hawaiian" by Howie! :shock:

The right side of the board now looks like this:

$1,000
$5,000
$10,000
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
$200,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000

Chosen case: 5, for his five-year old daughter.

Round 1: 6 Cases to open

26: $200,000
1: $5
25: $1,000
17: $1,000,000 :shock: 17's got it again, for the second game in a row, which predictably gets a frown from Janelle!
18: $200
16: $1,000,000 :shock: Not another one in the First Round!

Banker's offer: $58,000!

NO DEAL!

The rest of Brad's game... Next time on Wednesday night!


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AArnett

PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:50 am    Author: AArnett    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:51 am
Warnings: 0
I would've gotten the OPW had I been playing this game. :P

Greed gives us another Banker Win, albeit a technical one this time. I thought the $166K at 8-case was an easy Deal (Generous offer at a risky board at a known good time to deal), with the first three offers all being easy NDs.

I thought it was odd to do a full proveout when the best possible result from the Deal was a TBW and it's already known the contestant dealt too late just by pushing it that far (to 4-case and the $27K offer).

So, how many consecutive games without an OPW in the US version now? Is this the record for the US Version (Most consecutive games without an OPW?)?


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jimmy7945

PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:32 pm    Author: jimmy7945    Post subject:

Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 4:44 pm
Warnings: 0
Another player chose case #7. I believe it will have the top prize more commonly, but Guy Goudeau sold out $300 for $27,000.

But my game is there: http://www.dond.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12028 which I dealt at $155,000 but I had $1,000,000 in my case #7!

That was the first time of choosing cases #5 and #7 in this season.


Last edited by jimmy7945 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 3:03 pm    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject:

Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:09 pm
Location: Eternal Freedom
Warnings: 0
Folks, if I've said it once, I've said it 1,000 times:
Any one who chooses Case 7 as their case is pretty much doomed from the start. As soon as Guy Goudeau picked that case, I thought to myself, "The game is over, and it hasn't even started yet." At least this guy didn't go all the way, which would have been a bad idea, given his choice of case. He managed to win something, which is good. $27,000 is an okay amount of money. I wish I had that much. However, Guy felt the need for greed, and that's what cost him the game. I would have taken the $166,000 offer for sure, because I'm a very conservative player.

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I have berated my last contestant and have nothing else to say. Roll credits. Fade to black. | Dr. Hindsight | April 18, 2006 - December 7, 2023


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Aramid

PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 3:37 pm    Author: Aramid    Post subject:
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Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:34 pm
Location: Manila,Philippines
Warnings: 0
Case 7 is one of the cases that I would rarely pick. I hate case 7!

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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 6:54 pm    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject:

Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:09 pm
Location: Eternal Freedom
Warnings: 0
Since this site is famous for its "clubs", why don't we start an anti-Case 7 club? I could easily make a logo in MS Paint or something.

_________________
I have berated my last contestant and have nothing else to say. Roll credits. Fade to black. | Dr. Hindsight | April 18, 2006 - December 7, 2023


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Aramid

PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 7:02 pm    Author: Aramid    Post subject:
User avatar

Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:34 pm
Location: Manila,Philippines
Warnings: 0
well, that is a good idea :) but I do not know anyone else except you that hate case 7.

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 8:28 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
International Forums Moderator
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Definite eight-case OPW for me too. 50-50 chance of at least hitting one... which would send the offer down into five figures... miss both and it's probably still below $250k... amazing that the 1-in-56 chance came up again though.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:08 pm    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject:

Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:09 pm
Location: Eternal Freedom
Warnings: 0
Aramid wrote:
well, that is a good idea :) but I do not know anyone else except you that hate case 7.


The following is a direct quote from you, Aramid: "Case 7 is one of the cases that I would rarely pick. I hate case 7!"

Looks like that makes two of us, buddy :D .

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I have berated my last contestant and have nothing else to say. Roll credits. Fade to black. | Dr. Hindsight | April 18, 2006 - December 7, 2023


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AArnett

PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 7:31 am    Author: AArnett    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:51 am
Warnings: 0
There's not many games where I'd play past 8-case. In fact, there are some games where I'd deal at 11-case or even 15-case. I bought a DOND CD-ROM game and you'd be surprised how often I had games where the offers peaked at 15-case! But, the version I bought does emphasize winning big money more than beating the banker.

And, even though the 5-case and 4-case offers are more generous then they used to be, I'd still think ND'ing the 8-case offer on a risky board is still too risky of a strategy for me to recommend.

I would symphasize contestants who had their games peak at 11-case or earlier because that would be pretty unlucky, and don't blame anybody for not wanting to deal that early because that is overcautious and not really playing the game you signed up for. But, playing past 8-case is risky and does show greed, IMO. Actually, I think this season and the end of last season, I think 8-case deals might have surpassed 3-case deals and no deal to the end for being the most likely deal time to achieve an OPW (It was third place when I last did the poll behind 3-case deals and no-deal to the end, and both of those strategies are too riisky for my liking. If I were to ND an 8-case offer, I'd probably deal at 4-case despite that deal time's reputation of always being either too early to too late.)

BTW: What are the chances that the next contestant will deal at 8-case?


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:33 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
Administrator & Global Moderator

Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Warnings: 0
What would happen if there was a final five of, say, five $1 million cases?! Would they just celebrate the million win and that be it? That would be interesting to watch - the last box of the previous round would effectively decide what the player won!

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Ex-DoND contestant (show #992, 23 March 2009)

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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:59 am    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject:

Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:09 pm
Location: Eternal Freedom
Warnings: 0
h2005 wrote:
What would happen if there was a final five of, say, five $1 million cases?! Would they just celebrate the million win and that be it? That would be interesting to watch - the last box of the previous round would effectively decide what the player won!


You know what be funnier than that, h? If someone gets down to 2-case with two $1,000,000 cases. What would the offer be, $1,000,001? $1,100,000, even?

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I have berated my last contestant and have nothing else to say. Roll credits. Fade to black. | Dr. Hindsight | April 18, 2006 - December 7, 2023


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Aramid

PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:35 pm    Author: Aramid    Post subject:
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Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:34 pm
Location: Manila,Philippines
Warnings: 0
If I am the banker and the board is

$.01
$1,000,000
$1,000,000

I would likely offer $600,000

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 6:06 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
Mark77 wrote:
h2005 wrote:
What would happen if there was a final five of, say, five $1 million cases?! Would they just celebrate the million win and that be it? That would be interesting to watch - the last box of the previous round would effectively decide what the player won!


You know what be funnier than that, h? If someone gets down to 2-case with two $1,000,000 cases. What would the offer be, $1,000,001? $1,100,000, even?


Don't be dumb. There'd be no offer and the celebration'd start.

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Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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