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AArnett

PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:37 am    Author: AArnett    Post subject: What Should've Happend By Now That Hasn't?

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What has yet to happen on the US Version that you'd think would've happened at least by now?

I'm not thinking Jackpot win or seven-figure win, but something along those lines, along with a couple other things.

But, what is your input?


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Aramid

PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:56 am    Author: Aramid    Post subject:
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1). Someone would have gone all the way and SWITCHED their cases.

2). The Banker's real identity will be revealed.

3). The highest possible amount to be won on a special single event is $10,000,000!

4). There would be an underaged contestant who desperately needs the money.

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NoDeal!

PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:48 am    Author: NoDeal!    Post subject:

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Don't count on the banker's identity being revealed.

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:07 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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I don't think there's ever been a final six entirely on the right hand side, or an all-left-side opening round; both are overdue.

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AArnett

PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:23 am    Author: AArnett    Post subject: Reply

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Mentioned Already"

1. Contestant playing to the end and swapping: Since a contestant chooses his/her case as opposed to having one chosen for him/her, an end-game swap would be less likely, not to mention players playing to the end anyway is rare in this version. But, I think we might've seen it happen at least once by this point. Yes.

2. All right-side Final Six. Considering we've had about two or three all left-side final sixes :! you'd think we'd have seen at least once so far. Yes.

3. Banker's indentity being revealed. They might've done this in a season premiere or season finalle but they may be waiting for the SERIES finale. Still, this one not surprising to me. No.

4. $10M Top Prize. The hereshey game is not a real DOND game, so this doesn't count. Still, I think we may see a one so far, but increased jackpot games aen't TOO normal, so I can't say for this one.


These were what I was thinking of.

1. A player getting an OPW by going to the end. You'd think you'd see this one at least about once per season! And, I think going to the end is actually one of the best deal spots (along with dealing at 3-box and dealing at 8-box) is one of the best times to go! It's just that the contestants gutsy enough to do this always have low amounts when it's usually correct to deal early while contestants with high amounts usually deal early (usually 5-box or earlier!). Still, going to end is not strategy I usually recommend, but I'd think somebody doing that and being correct to do so would've happened at least once by now.

2. I don't think a player getting an OPW by dealing at 2-box has happened yet either, and this is also one I'd think have happened at least once by now. A really big all-or-peanuts gamble (I mean, a six-figure amount vs. a left-side amount) in a Final Two hasn't really happened yet that I can recall.

In fact, I think every contestant who has no-dealt on an All Or Peanuts game at 3-box has lost.

3. I may have thought that a 7-figure win in an increased jackpot game (particually a $5M game) may happen, as you don't have to go to the end or even have a big amount in your case. Just keep the $5M to the Final Three and avoid dealing beforehand would do it, even with a low amount in your case (Good, because it seems like the bigger gamblers have mostly had low amounts in their case). Keeping the $2M along with a six-figure backup to the Final Two should also do it. If we see more increase jackpot games, we should see a seven-figure win (even if it might still be an OBW because of the top amount being in the contestant's case).

4. I think the record for highest case amount won by playing to the end in a regular $1M game is the $100K. (Or, is it the $200K?) I'd think that record would be much higher by now. Even without the $1M ever being won, I'd think we'd at least see EITHER the $750K, the $500K, or even the $400K being won at least once by now. Again, I think the really high amounts seem to attract wimpy contestants who'd deal at 6-box while left-side amounts seem to attract gamblers.

Agree with mine?

PS: I do NOT know how or why I am getting the "Invalid Session" error, nor do I know how to correct this problem so if this post is either sextuple-posted or not posted at all, sorry.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 10:47 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Very good points, all of them. I would also add that it's always a lot harder to take chances once the money's big, which might be providing a false impression.

Although you'd think somewhere along the way, a huge gambler will have picked a huge amount at the start of the game. Would be fun to see once, if only to watch Howie - would he be as exuberant about it as Noel given that he's a lot, lot less friendly towards risk-taking?

Not everyone has lost through a No Deal on a three-case all-or-peanuts finish, but you have to look back to Daryl from the very first five-night run in December 2005 to see someone who hasn't, if I'm not mistaken.

On the US ruleset, 'if you're gonna deal early, deal way early' is not bad strategy. (I would argue the case for moderation is rather stronger with our three-box rounds.)

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AArnett

PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:31 pm    Author: AArnett    Post subject:

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From what I've seen, pretty much everybody is playing to at least 4-box this season so far.

I don't advocate dealing at 6-box or 5-box much, as it's usually worth the gamble, even on an all-or-peanuts board, as the offers start getting close to the mean at 4-box (if you keep the big money in play that far), so the potential gain is usually worth the risk given normal banker offer patterns.

What I don't get is why more contestants don't deal at 8-box. Yes, the offers aren't good this early in the game, but no-dealing at 8-box is risky, moreso than at 6-box or 5-box. Most poor games actually peak in 8 box or even 11-box. And, dealing on a poor board, even if the offer is only about $20-30K, this early in the game is actually pretty good strategy, and be one I'd likely use if playing (I'm a cautious player and not a fan of the Target Strategy.), as it's better than a left-side win. And, isn't 8-box stastically proven to be one of the best times to deal, and certainly the best cautious time to go. And, at 8-box, the chances at knocking out the highest amount next round is 25% compared to 17% and 20% for the fifth and sixth rounds (and I think worse for knocking out one of the two highest amounts). I thought 8-box deals would happen often at the start of this season given what happened at the end of last season, but no!

I probably even wimp out and deal at 11-box if the board that stage was volatile, but I can understand always no dealing at 11-box, but not 8-box (unless the offer was ultra-stingy for the board).


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Power5

PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:34 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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KP wrote:
Although you'd think somewhere along the way, a huge gambler will have picked a huge amount at the start of the game.

Well, I don't know how many shows the US version has had, but sure it's a lot less than our 600 or so contestants, and as I just posted on the stats section, we've yet to see a huge gambler bring the £250,000 out. Laura was far from meeting that description, she just showed the courage to turn down an insulting offer.

Same goes for the two £100k box winners really, Gaz and Maria both had turnarounds from disastrous starts, with low-money offers up to five-box, and then no-dealable final offers with a backup. Biggest amount brought to the table by a genuine gambler in the UK version has to be Lynne who won £75k!

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Oh and five others, guess I need to update this!


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 12:49 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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I think there's been around 120 episodes, and that comes to about 180 contestants given the number of straddling games.

Bang on with that point there. Neither the UK or US has had its Dean Cartechini yet...

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NoDeal!

PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 1:07 pm    Author: NoDeal!    Post subject:

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There has been a guy who had an all-left opening round. He was the 1st guy of the Million Mission and won $180k. His first offer was only $48k, though.

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 1:22 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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AArnett wrote:
And, at 8-box, the chances at knocking out the highest amount next round is 25% compared to 17% and 20% for the fifth and sixth rounds (and I think worse for knocking out one of the two highest amounts).


Yup, two to open and two to dodge... (6/8)*(5/7) = 30/56 = 15/28. Barely a 50% chance of keeping both of the top two amounts.

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I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
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Aramid

PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 3:01 pm    Author: Aramid    Post subject:
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I remembered Anita English had a wonderful board with only 2 blues and 4 reds which are all $400,000 above. Her case had the dollar that's why she nearly beaten the odds of knocking amounts from the least value to the greatest.

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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2007 3:06 am    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject:

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We need a millionaire! The Million-Dollar Mission was a massive failure the first time around (one idiot won only $100), but fear not, folks - it's rumored to be coming back. This season, a record number of people have sold the million-dollar case. I think we're up to 12 right now, including last night's show. That's just sad.

Another thing I'd like to see is someone taking home a Power 7 amount other than the million by going all the way. This has only happened twice so far (Michele Falco and Peter Shine), but both of those games were OBWs. What I's like to see is someone getting an OPW out of a situation like that.

And how about less reliance on gimmickry as well? The show could do a lot better without it. But in the crazy world of television, some shows will do just about anything for ratings.

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jimmy7945

PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 5:25 pm    Author: jimmy7945    Post subject:

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Something that is:
1st offer of $100,000 or above in standard $1,000,000 game
3 players have top prize in case in one game


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 7:04 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Doubt the second one will happen, except maybe in a two-hour episode, although two in one game's already happened (and that was quite something in itself).

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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jimmy7945

PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 8:00 am    Author: jimmy7945    Post subject:

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Highest possible mean after 1st round is $170,916. A $100,000 1st offer is 58.5% of the mean.
I've missed something:
A triple deal game (means all board amounts tripled)
A double or triple deal game in multi-million top prize game
They happened in our BigJon PC Game.


Last edited by jimmy7945 on Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 4:30 am    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject:

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Here's another thing that should have happened by now but hasn't - the show getting cancelled. You never know, it may actually happen someday.

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Aramid

PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:31 am    Author: Aramid    Post subject:
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I guess another thing that I will add is when $1,000,000 or any jackpot and the $.01 are left in play. The contestant's case held $.01.

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