One-in-1,000 chance to win Noel's Deal Or No Deal jackpot

By PAUL REVOIR

26th April 2007

Contestants on TV's Deal Or No Deal have only a one-in-a-thousand chance of scooping the £250,000 top prize, it has been revealed.

Statisticians who worked out the best strategy for maximising winnings on the Channel Four gameshow say those taking part should accept the first offer of more than £20,000 from the programme's banker.

If they never receive an offer that high, they should continue to the end of the game and try their luck, the team from London's City University concluded.

The research lifts the lid on the enormous odds facing contestants on the show, which has enjoyed phenomenal success under host Noel Edmonds.

In Deal Or No Deal, there are 22 boxes containing sums ranging from 1p to £250,000. Contestants eliminate each in turn, while the invisible banker tempts them with offers for their own box over the phone.

Since the show's launch two years ago, only one contestant - 24-year-old Laura Pearce - has held her nerve to win the jackpot, while the average prize has been just £15,360, the researchers found.

This is considerably less than the mean sum across all the boxes - £25,712.

Professor Linda Wolstenholme, of City University's Cass Business School, said most contestants end up taking home less than the average because they are not professional gamblers.

Some have already sat through 20 shows and become conservative about losing large sums of money. Others gain a false sense of confidence under the studio lights.

The professor said contestants should aim for an offer close to the average amount, then cash in. Otherwise, they might as well try their luck.

She added: "The startling success of the Deal Or No Deal format, which is now played in nearly 50 countries, is surprising given that it is so unlikely that a contestant will win significant amounts of money.

"The game is completely down to luck, with how well any contestant will do dependant on their attitude to risk."

surely the chances are 1 in 22 ?

This article appeared in the Daily Mail today...

most contestants end up taking home less than the average because they are not professional gamblers.

That is really interesting.

Peg and I discussed things at great length and decided that, following the experiences of games we had watched and from our time in the wings, any offer over £20,000 should be taken - regardless of what point in the game it is offered.

Offers of about £15k should be seriously considered with the average board at 11 box stage and again, with an average board at 5 box stage then £10k should be carefully thought about

Pam

I also think Wakey is about to start up unnecessary conflict... *tags thread*

Change the record mate. I think we all get the picture that you dislike jmas. Your starting to get tedious.