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rico7

PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 3:32 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Changing format for banker's offers
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In a few shows we have seen the banker's offers format change from the 5 box stage where he makes an offer after each box is opened rather than waiting until the usual 3 boxes are opened in the round. This is similar to the US format in the latter stages. We've seen it in Ned, Wrighty, and Danny's game. Would this format be good to use on a more permanent basis and how would it change the tactics of the banker and the contestant?


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"The Banker"

PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 3:42 pm    Author: "The Banker"    Post subject:

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No it wouldn't be good to use on a more permanent basis. It would just be crap.

If the contestants keep the higher sums in play after opening just one box, the chances of them getting a bigger offer is higher so they would be more inclined to go and gamble and not have to make as much a tough decision as they do now, which is what the game is all about really, making decisions and getting them right.

I like it the way it is. They don't need to change the format.

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tr4962

PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:24 pm    Author: tr4962    Post subject:

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The banker has hit the nail right on the head with that


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:06 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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The players would need to be given more money to walk out of the game. The Banker would - hopefully - offer them just that. Those two would cancel each other out, surely?

I think the biggest differences would be in finishes like Sarah's or Lance's, with three blues and two big reds; at present that situation is a 30% chance of disaster and only a 10% chance of a massive increase (maybe 40% if one red is much bigger than the other, but on current Banker behaviour... scrub that). With one box to open, it becomes a 60% chance of a fairly decent increase and a 40% chance of a significant but not disastrous drop.

You also have interesting possibilities at 4-box and 3-box, too.

I actually think the decisions would be more difficult this way. Some would be caught up by the urge to go 'just one more', others would be influenced by the bigger absolute offers earlier in the game... and you would have two more big decisions in every game (that makes it that far, anyway). I'd prefer it that way, provided the Banker adapts accordingly. Danny's game strongly suggested he wouldn't... then again, the five-box offer was Dealt...

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rico7

PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:34 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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I think the change in format could work because it could elevate the tension at the end.

Don't forget that Danny had that format available to him but still found it difficult to decide what to do, and dealt at 5 box for £20,000, even though he could have gone on just one more box only. As it turned out it was a great deal because going just one more box would have been disastrous!

It might make some contestants feel less pressure to no deal too because they only have to open one box at a time, so you might get just as many contestants going all the way to the end as we do now, perhaps more so! ;)


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h2005

PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 12:06 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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I don't think it would make the show better necessarily, but certainly different - the contestants would actually, as has been said by KP, have to think harder about making the right decision in this format as they'd be tempted to go on by the thought of only opening one more box before the next offer. But it would take tension out in as much as they could bail out if it started to go wrong. But they'd have probably dealt beforehand if they were planning to bail out... but if they were planning to go on, they'd probably no deal anyway... so it sort of cancels itself out.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 1:06 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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There would be more opportunities to bail out and more incentive not to. That's the key thing I think.

Really it would depend upon the Banker's strategy in those circumstances.

I'd also say the emphasis would shift slightly from the tension of the box-opening to the tension of the decision-making - which I personally see as positive, but this may reflect my background in mathematical economics...

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rico7

PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 9:48 am    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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KP wrote:
I'd also say the emphasis would shift slightly from the tension of the box-opening to the tension of the decision-making - which I personally see as positive, but this may reflect my background in mathematical economics...
I'd say that you'd have the best of both worlds, tense decision-making and tense box opening. It's interesting that Ned, Wrighty and Danny had already dealt when the one box offers kicked in, but anyone who has seen the US version knows how tense it gets towards the end as one suitcase is opened at a time, and just as in the 3 box situation, it's the highest number that everyone doesn't want to see! :D


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:29 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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I think you're right. You'd have to race through the opening two rounds (as the US does) to make it fit, I think... actually that would be great. The current 5-3-3-3-3-3 format has a relatively static pace, a change might end that.

And there'd be completely different and arguably more interesting decisions. Even the earlier offers would be influenced by the prospect of more to come, and I'd imagine fewer would deal - unless they too were consistently more generous...

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I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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little_monster

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:43 pm    Author: little_monster    Post subject:

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I think 3 boxes per round could be changed. 5 works well for the opening offer, then maybe it could be 4, then 3s until the penultimate offer when there is a 3-box-stage offer, so it would look something like this:

Box 1
Box 2
Box 3
Box 4
Box 5

OFFER

Box 6
Box 7
Box 8
Box 9

OFFER

Box 10
Box 11
Box 12

OFFER

Box 13
Box 14
Box 15

OFFER

Box 16
Box 17
Box 18

OFFER

Box 19
Box 20

OFFER

Box 22 - Contestant's Box

Box 21 - Dead Box


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