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Goldeneye

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:39 pm    Author: Goldeneye    Post subject: Which will come first of the last two?

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50p and £250,000 are the last two boxes to have never been won by the contestant (going to the end and no swapping)?

Which do you think it will be won first? I am inclined to say the £250,000, but it has to take someone like a Simone or a Dean (from the Aussie version) to actually go for it (presuming the other box is a blue or lower red).


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:44 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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I actually think the £250k will go first. I think 50p must be destined to never ever be won ever.

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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:50 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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daniel4389 wrote:
I actually think the £250k will go first. I think 50p must be destined to never ever be won ever.

The 50p could end up to be the holy grail of Deal or No Deal :P


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Ian W

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:51 pm    Author: Ian W    Post subject:

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I think it will! :D

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rico7

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:55 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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I hope the £250,000 is won first, but statistically it is more likely to be the 50p because of gameplay tactics.


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Spartacus

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 9:24 pm    Author: Spartacus    Post subject:

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I have no doubt that 50p will go before 250K. But we shall see :D

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wakey1512

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 9:42 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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Funly enough, they are the 2 most overdue values on the table!

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Billy

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:29 pm    Author: Billy    Post subject:
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50p first, definitely.

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:50 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject:

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hopefully £250,000 so then it doesnt make me think its a fix

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justcause110

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:51 pm    Author: justcause110    Post subject:
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I think it will be the 50p


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Power5

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:54 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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Although David dealt that final offer today, a lot of players would have taken the gamble and the Banker's tactics there give hope to all those desperate to see it soon!

In most other recent games when the £250k has reached the later stages in play, the Banker has made offers high enough to get rid of all but the craziest gambler, which made the days of Kirsty and Morris actually having a shot at it seem a long way off.

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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:36 am    Author: James1978    Post subject:

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Not sure, I'd rather it be the £250,000 but given that we've had so many winners of 1p and £1, 50p is statistically more likely!

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Will

PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:02 pm    Author: Will    Post subject:
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Got to be the 50p. If you're left in a 50p v £1 gamble, you'll probably no deal. If you're left in a £1 v £250,000 gamble, you'd be a fool not to deal IMHO. (Unless you were offered a pitiful sum of money!)

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davedorn

PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:10 pm    Author: davedorn    Post subject:
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James1978 wrote:
Not sure, I'd rather it be the £250,000 but given that we've had so many winners of 1p and £1, 50p is statistically more likely!


Winnings and box amounts may never truly coincide. Over time, unless there's a long crop of inveterate gamblers on the wings, the winnings will tend towards the mean.

The likelihood of there being a 250k winner is fairly remote IMO - purely because there's a banker there. Given the background he (they) has on each player, it ought toi be relatively simple to formulate an offer that will be walking money, dependent on what the final two boxes are.

Even at £100k/£250k, the difference twixt the two is larger than the lesser amount, although for most people, £100k is life-changing money. Only an offer that's very close to the mean - ie £175k - is likely to dissuade the majority of us from No Dealing - a derisory offer of, say, £140k gives you a potential loss of "only" 40k vs the 100, and a 110k gain if the gamble pays off. That's no bad odds (15/4 on a 50/50 gamble).


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