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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 10:58 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Deal vs. no deal
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Surely this is proof that going to the end is, on the whole, less beneficial than dealing - the fact that the total of the amounts in the box is much less than the total of the highest banker's offers?


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Power5

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:07 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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Well as it's 50-50 that the final offer will be higher than the box, it's much bigger odds in favour of any one of six offers being higher than the box.

There's 7 different actions available to the player, from dealing the first offer to playing on to the end. So it's much harder to choose the right time to deal (or not deal at all!)

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:12 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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A statistic:

48 of the players of the first 254 games (19% of players) would have taken the most money from their game by No Dealing their way to the end.

206 players (81%) would have maximised their winnings by doing a Deal.


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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:13 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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Thankyou, MisterAl, further evidence!


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Power5

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:36 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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MisterAl wrote:
A statistic:

48 of the players of the first 254 games (19% of players) would have taken the most money from their game by No Dealing their way to the end.

206 players (81%) would have maximised their winnings by doing a Deal.


Which offer would most contestants have maximised their winnings by dealing at?

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davedorn

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:42 pm    Author: davedorn    Post subject:
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Power5 wrote:

Which offer would most contestants have maximised their winnings by dealing at?


Before MisterAl comes back - I'm going to hazard a guess and say 11 boxes with two of the power five in play.


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wakey1512

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 3:56 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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davedorn wrote:
Power5 wrote:

Which offer would most contestants have maximised their winnings by dealing at?


Before MisterAl comes back - I'm going to hazard a guess and say 11 boxes with two of the power five in play.


Not a chance. That is the worst time to deal.

It would be the 5 box stage. 5th offer. Whatever. Even though my opinion is go all the way.

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 4:04 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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But if you go all the way, you might as well open the box at the beginning, and the show would last 5 minutes!


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wakey1512

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 4:13 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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But the offers are interesting to observe. It might be cool looking at them and saying 'Hmm, thats a good offer for that board'. I don't want everyone to go to the end or gamble. I just want more gamblers and no dealers like there were in March time. The early offers were tiny, therefore forcing the player ON to the later stages, where some of the bigger wins in the shows history are.

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:03 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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wakey1512 wrote:
I don't want everyone to go to the end or gamble.

Really? You had me fooled.

Anyway, this is probably what people want to see...

BEST TIME TO DEAL (games 1 to 255)
Deal-of-17: 6 games (2.4%)
Deal-of-14: 19 games (7.5%)
Deal-of-11: 26 games (10.2%)
Deal-of-8: 35 games (13.7%)
Deal-of-5: 71 games (27.8%)
Deal-of-2: 50 games (19.6%)
Take the box: 48 games (18.8%)


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:34 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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What about deal of 22? They may want to go away with nothing! Good stats, thanks!


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Power5

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:22 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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h2005 wrote:
What about deal of 22? They may want to go away with nothing!


With all the pantomime stuff from the banker recently, with joke offers that he phones back and changes etc., I'm surprised we haven't seen a contestant made an offer before a box is opened yet! Would be interesting, even if it's just a swap offer which would be an interesting psychological move against either a Black Widow or someone who always has blues!

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:17 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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An offer whilst they're still opening boxes and haven't yet finished the round? Interesting...


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Power5

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:27 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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h2005 wrote:
An offer whilst they're still opening boxes and haven't yet finished the round? Interesting...


Well I actually meant the moment they sit in the chair, before the game actually starts. The Banker has phoned at the start of a game before, so maybe he could offer something, probably a swap, perhaps a joke cash offer or even a semi-serious one!

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wakey1512

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:36 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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I would offer a swap to anyone with box 3, for the first 3 offers. If anyone had box 4, I would never offer the swap. Even if it means I am basically handing the player two-hundred and fifty pounds.

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:07 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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wakey1512 wrote:
I would offer a swap to anyone with box 3, for the first 3 offers. If anyone had box 4, I would never offer the swap. Even if it means I am basically handing the player two-hundred and fifty pounds.

Has box 4 had the £250 a lot, then?


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