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rico7

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:49 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: 8 Box Scenario what would you do?
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We've seen it on a number of occasions- the £100,000 and £250,000 still in play and 6 low amounts left at the 8 box stage, let's say for the sake of argument 1p, 50p, £1, £50, £500, and £1,000 . The banker offers £20,000. Would you deal or no deal? Bear in mind that you have a 36% chance of retaining both the £100,000 and £250,000 for the 5 box stage to ensure the banker's offer improves, and if you go to the very end you have a 25% chance of getting one of the two big ones. Would you take the risk?


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:51 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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I'd probably deal at £20k. :oops: What would you do, rico7? ;)

EDIT:I'd definitely deal actually.


Last edited by h2005 on Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:52 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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I'd definitely Deal. There's no guarantee that the banker will go up if the £100k goes but not the £250k (and obviously keeping the latter but not the former would see the offer go down a lot), and the chance of keeping them both wouldn't be worth risking what, to me, is a huge amount of money.

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rico7

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:52 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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Given the odds, I'd deal. £20,000 is not small change! :)


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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Yes, I'd definitely deal because of the all or peanuts situation.


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wakey1512

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:59 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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DEFINATELY No deal. No doubt about it.

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tr4962

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:02 pm    Author: tr4962    Post subject:

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if you went on and kept both the biggies the offer would be massive. however i would take the money


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:24 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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wakey1512 wrote:
DEFINATELY No deal. No doubt about it.

How did I guess you'd say that? :roll:


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:27 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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I'll be very surprised if he's still saying it in a few years' time...

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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:32 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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Why?Because he'll value money more in a few years time...

*I run and hide*

By the way, I wasn't the first person who made that comment...


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:44 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Under our rules? Deal. Definitely.

If it was the 26-box version and it was two to open in this round and one at a time from then on, though, I'd be looking for 25-30k to go - because then the odds are much more favourable (75% chance of keeping the quarter-million, which even on its own ought to produce a 25k offer with one to open and six left, and only a 1 in 28 chance of instant death).

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:47 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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I'd No Deal.

Despite the unstable board, I'd be quite happy to risk a bit of the £20k to chase the quarter-million. There's only a 10.7% chance that both will go in the following round, which is more than compensated for by the by the 35.7% chance of keeping both.

If the £250k went but the £100k remained, I'd definitely Deal the following offer (which I'd expect to be around £7k).


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justcause110

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:59 pm    Author: justcause110    Post subject:
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I'd probably deal. I would find it a bit risky and £20k would be enough for me when considering the gameboard, even with the 2 biggies still in play


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James1978

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:07 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

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Deal - I need the money!!!

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:07 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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At least you're honest! :lol: Most contestants would probably no deal and if they then had a bad round, they'd pretend that they didn't really need the money anyway, when deep down they wished they'd dealt. But, yes, I think £20k is a nice sum of money for anyone!


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Ben Miller 176

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:12 pm    Author: Ben Miller 176    Post subject:

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Deal


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James1978

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:23 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

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I think only if you kept the big two in play would the offer definitely go up. £250k and four blues can produce an offer of anything between, what £9k and £25k is it? (I'm ignoring £47k Trevor's offer becuase the banker was just plain weird back then!)

More realistically, I think Debbie's offer of £15k for that board was about right. Knowing that, it would make a cast-iron deal.

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"The Banker"

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:24 pm    Author: "The Banker"    Post subject: Re: 8 Box Scenario what would you do?

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If you no deal, and went on to take out both the £100,000 and £250,000 you can kiss goodbye to £20,000 however, if you manage to to keep them both, you'll be a very jammy sod and will get a fantastic offer.

If you take out the £100,000, I can't see the banker going up, he might stick if you're lucky, if you take out the £250,000 but keep the £100,000, the banker will offer you something low to force you on and pick 3 boxes to improve on the offer.

If I was sitting in the chair, I would probably chicken out and take the deal, but sitting here at this very precise moment I would no deal because the only way you can get the really big money is to go on. I always say, it's better to take risks in life and regret them than to regret not taking any risks at all.

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:30 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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I think the reason I'd Deal is because the payoff isn't really all that massive even for an all-blue round - I'm taking Tom's 33k for three blues and the top two as the benchmark here, and I don't consider that a heck of a lot more than 20k. Even if he was scared, I can't see him offering anywhere near the 52k Jennifer got in the same situation, not now.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 8:05 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject:

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Tough one to call, but id eventually no deal

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