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Does Mally's Law work?
Yes 52%  52%  [ 20 ]
No 47%  47%  [ 18 ]
Total votes : 38
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h2005

PostPosted: Sun Jul 02, 2006 11:40 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Mally's Law and probability
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We all know Mally's Law - if a box had a large number in it one show, it is unlikely to have a high number in it again for a second show.

But, does this really work?

There are two sides to the argument - and of course who believes what depends on the situation.

For example: If the £250k is on the table one show, the banker has claimed that it is highly unlikely to be there for a second time in a row. However, as the contestant at the time (was it Ryan?) pointed out, everything's random and there's every chance it could be there for a second time.

But, who is right? Surely, with someone like Stevie, who had a large number of high reds, mathematically, the chances of her having a blue are going to increase with every red she has.. or maybe this is too mathematical for what is basically a random game?


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Sun Jul 02, 2006 11:44 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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:cry: Mally's Law makes me cry. It's total rubbish - the games are independent events, so the contents of one game's boxes don't affect what happens the next day.

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seanyuk85

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 3:23 am    Author: seanyuk85    Post subject:

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i think my system if i ever went on would be to pick whichever box had the 250,000 the show before and go downwards from that if that makes sense

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Mental Mickey

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 8:39 am    Author: Mental Mickey    Post subject:
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I wish I'd paid more attention in maths class rather than doodling cartoons in the back of my exercise book then I could join in this debate properly!

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jonny

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:13 pm    Author: jonny    Post subject:
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it's absolute *beep*, with all respect to the man. but it pains me when people take this to actually be true! and the fact that it's winning on this poll makes me want to cry! :shock:

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Suezan

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:15 pm    Author: Suezan    Post subject:

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aww don't cry hun you'll get awful red eyes, just take a deep breath


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jonny

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 2:15 pm    Author: jonny    Post subject:
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Suezan wrote:
aww don't cry hun you'll get awful red eyes, just take a deep breath

I know...i already look worse than that bird in my sig! :-D

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Jonny starred as...'audience member':

23rd, 24th and 25th of July 2008 (Adam, Helen, William) recorded 7th April 2008

18th, 19th and 20th May 2009 (Cath, Sean, Lynne) recorded 4th February 2009

10th, 11th and 13th December 2009 recorded 4th June 2009


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Suezan

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 2:18 pm    Author: Suezan    Post subject:

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8) passes Jonny a pair of shades for his eyes


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wakey1512

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:28 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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It is correct.

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:30 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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It isn't. It ISN'T. What do you want me to do to get you to see this? Pay you? I'm actually prepared to do that.

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wakey1512

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:43 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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Nope. I know its correct, and there is nothing you can do about it. You see, Mally's law won Mally £54,000 and possibly £250,000! Must be of some use...

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:02 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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BECAUSE MALLY HAD THE BLOODY £250,000 IN HIS BOX!!!!!!!!!!!!

AAAAAAARGHHHHHHH.

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wakey1512

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:05 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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daniel4389 wrote:
BECAUSE MALLY HAD THE BLOODY £250,000 IN HIS BOX!!!!!!!!!!!!

AAAAAAARGHHHHHHH.


BUT HE KEPT THE BIGGER AMOUNTS IN PLAY :x

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Mental Mickey

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:07 pm    Author: Mental Mickey    Post subject:
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There should have been a category in the recent forum awards for "Best comedy double act"

wakey1512 and daniel4389 would walk it!

I think these guys need a thread all to themselves - it'll be hilarious! :lol:

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 5:09 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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We really do.

And, looking at the stats - I didn't see the actual game - Mally's final five was 10p, £100, £250, £20k and £250k. Given that he had £250k and therefore couldn't take it out, that's really rather crap.

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Power5

PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 6:48 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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It's equally likely to work as the opposite theory, i.e. the theory that "Black Widows" will continue to have large amounts. But both are no better or worse than any random system of picking numbers!


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:05 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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There's also the question of what do you apply it to - the person, i.e. what did person X have in their box yesterday, or the number, i.e. what did number X have in its box yesterday, etc.


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:07 am    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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68% think it's right. I despair.

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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:08 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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There was one player (apart from Mally, obviously), the very funny Russell, I think, who based his whole gameplan on what the boxes have had in previous days - he had a huge (well, A4) Excel spreadsheet with colour coding, etc., and ended up ripping it up after he took out three high reds... I think!


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:17 am    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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Hahah, exactly - it's a load of rubbish. But I'll forgive Russell, as he was a legend.

Dave E also seemed to base lots of his decisions on what players had had recently...and look where that got him!

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