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How seriously should we take the Banker's 'proveout' offers?
At face value - he'd have been true to his word and offered what he said 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
With a pinch of salt - he exaggerates his proveout offers slightly 81%  81%  [ 13 ]
Ignore them - he inflates the proveout offers out of all proportion 6%  6%  [ 1 ]
Respect them - they encourage future players to gamble and win substantially more 12%  12%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 16
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Maltus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 7:33 pm    Author: Maltus    Post subject: Banker's 'Proveout' Offers

Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2006 7:23 pm
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I noticed today, that when Germaine got down to the last 2 boxes he was offered £75k. Yet the Banker's hypothetical offer at the same stage a few weeks ago on Anna's show was £91k for the exact same board. Do you think we can take these proveout (i.e. after the deal) offers seriously any more? As I am increasingly finding them hard to believe!


Last edited by Maltus on Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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MisterAl
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:16 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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At the risk of getting overly mathematical here (a tendency of mine which I try to curb), I've already done some statistical analysis looking at this. Here's part of what I've found (updated to include all games broadcast up until today, 7 March 2006).

WHEN FIVE BOXES REMAIN

Real 'in-play' offers
Number of games: 78
Average offer: 58.2% of the the mean of the remaining amounts

Hypothetical 'proveout' offers
Number of games: 30
Average offer: 76.2% of the mean of the remaining amounts

A type of statistical test called a 't-test' tells us that the chance of seeing a difference this great if we assume that there is no difference in Banker behaviour pre- and post-deal is a mere 0.03%. Statistically, we have very strong evidence to suggest that proveout offers (at least at the round-of-five) are inflated.

Personally, I've not believed the provout offers for weeks now. I get the feeling that The Banker just says the first figure that comes into his head...
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KP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:56 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Being overly mathematical isn't bad and wrong in the slightest. And I'm with Mister Al.

Sometimes I wonder what kind of person would think up some of those offers in their heads to be honest.
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kestral
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:25 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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KP wrote:
Being overly mathematical isn't bad and wrong in the slightest.


Totally agree, it's great that you can provide us with these stats MisterAl. It certainly helps back up some of theories going around, and a show like Deal or No Deal cries out for stats, keep firing them at us :smt023
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neefs
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:36 pm    Author: neefs    Post subject:
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Great job MrAl , very interesting :-D

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bork
PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:47 am    Author: bork    Post subject:
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Good stuff MisterAl, this is a great game for the kind of breakdowns that you have been providing.
Can we have this one put up on the stats highlights board? It is certainly of interest, and gives a different angle than all the player-based ones.

Keep them coming MA.
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MisterAl
PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 1:27 am    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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bork wrote:
Good stuff MisterAl, this is a great game for the kind of breakdowns that you have been providing.
Can we have this one put up on the stats highlights board? It is certainly of interest, and gives a different angle than all the player-based ones.

Keep them coming MA.

If you're going to keep something like this permanently on the site, then please use the ones I've just posted on the 'Statistics' thread.

http://www.dond.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?p=3292#3292

(Sorry Maltus -- I didn't mean to hijack the thread. As you were, everybody...)
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