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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 7:46 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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American Coupon Boy wrote:
It was definitely justifiable to go on at 8 box in Martin's game with the button, as there was a 62.5% chance of hitting a blue in the first box, which would've certainly translated into a five figure offer. Plus, as £12,000 Brian showed last month (and arguably Roxanne the game before :P ), if you go on non-reluctantly you can extract an even more generous offer if you hit a low amount (though obviously not if you hit the top amount, as Graham showed last month as well).


Thing is, although you might well gain £2k-ish for hitting a blue, big deal - hitting any red leads to a slight or significant decrease - 37.5% chance of basically being forced on to a pretty mediocre finish, regardless of whether you have the button or not, is too high a percentage for me to risk when there is absolutely no need to do so utility-wise on a board with a blue bias. Especially as I'm more likely to gamble £8k on box 23 than £10k as well. ..

In terms of offers, even if you keep the reds to 5-box, you're unlikely to get a £15k offer, not really worth the 18% chance against a 40% chance of £16k+ from box 23, and only one disaster scenario from box 23 rather than a few from the board at that stage.

Brian's game was more about erratic banker behaviour than skillful gameplay in my view - he caught the banker on a good day, yet you still refuse to acknowledge that! Graham perhaps had more reason to play on for a generous offer, admittedly.

I'm sure we'll agree to disagree on this one though! :P :smt023

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Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 7:29 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Kerry:

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These kind of games terrify the producers now, particularly in the climate of dwindling ratings, and YET AGAIN we see a frustrating intervention from the banker at 3-box (which I see as tantamount to 'cheating' at that point...) in order to hopefully save a bit of money, but in the process sacrificing the drama that an all-or-nothing finish would've left... :eyes:

Otherwise, a decent enough game but I HATE this meddling... :smt011

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 7:34 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Bill:

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The kind of 5-box where, even with the button, it's difficult to see a massive increase from the £2k, but a 30% chance of ending up with a blue... might've dealt £2k and box 23 there, or gone on to 2-box, but I suspect I wouldn't have used the button either way (although worth using at 3-box if only to increase potential 2-box offer had 20k still been there). Pretty wimpish box 23 decision, but worked out in his favour...

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 7:55 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!
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Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:20 pm
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I'm surprised you didn't slate Bill's 8 box decision, as it was of similar generosity to Martin's 8 box offer on a similar configuration and under similar circumstances (5 blue-3 red split, modest drop after a bad round, offer is over 150% of the Fair Deal).

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Skyline

PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 10:12 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!
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Joined: Wed Jul 23, 2008 10:42 pm
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Bill, your decision was positively arid. You dealt at a fraction of the standard deviation of the Poisson distribution of the laplace of the remaining amounts.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2015 12:02 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
American Coupon Boy wrote:
I'm surprised you didn't slate Bill's 8 box decision, as it was of similar generosity to Martin's 8 box offer on a similar configuration and under similar circumstances (5 blue-3 red split, modest drop after a bad round, offer is over 150% of the Fair Deal).


Sometimes the stats speak for themselves, I don't exactly need to highlight the same points each time, just give an angle of a particular deal point or reflect the overall flavour of the game as I see it...

Anyway, I'd whinged about Kerry's game enough! :lol: :smt023

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2015 6:11 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Angie:

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Might've even played cautiously today and dealt £4k at 8-box and box 23 (not that it would've mattered in the event), but a fair case for going on, and good use of the button! :smt023

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2015 6:32 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Irene:

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Remarkable similarities to the last Irene to have played in July 2013; £5 instead of 50p at 5-box, and same 2-box finish! :eyes:

Rather surprising decision on box 23 of course, slightly inconsistent with the deal, but who cares! Great result! :smt023

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2015 3:16 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Mark:

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Just the right side of calculated rather than suspect gameplay at 8-box given his bold style, and sensible not to push his luck further after that! :smt023

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2015 4:11 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Connie:

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Another decent game with calculated/brave decision-making, slightly unfortunate result combined with box 23 but nice to get to a high-scale finish in live play, and she shouldn't have too many regrets about going for it! :smt023

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 11:25 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Chris:

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A borderline decision for Deal-Eye, however with this configuration and consolation options from box 23, I'd personally see this as an opportunity for aggressive gameplay (had I not dealt the admittedly decent 8-box offer), particularly with the £100k being potentially attainable from a 20k/100k finish at that stage. Having a couple of "oranges" on the board makes a big difference in my thought process there...

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 11:59 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Lyn:

Image

Would've probably used the button at 3-box today, figuring only 1 box could really damage the offer. Don't think I'd have dealt this offer, so disaster either way for me... :x

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2015 3:02 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Steven:

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Another generous 8-box offer, probably one I would've taken in fact, and the question we have to ask ourselves lately is how important is it really to use the button, the mere influence of it seems just as beneficial and players shouldn't just dismiss these offers thinking the button always provides a decent safety net...

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:07 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Sally:

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A reasonable case for dealing at 8-box today, with or without Box 23 considerations. Given I'd probably take on box 23 with sums under £10k most of the time, can't really see an increase above that even with a good round there, so it would really depend whether I wanted to commit for 2 more rounds with the offer unreliability. Nightmarish scenario for me either way as it turns out... :x

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:11 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
David:

Image

No complaints there - only a 36% chance of keeping the top 2, and anything else likely to force your hand on a precarious board, which is what transpired. :smt023

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


Top
 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:16 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Filipa:

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Sensible decision I feel, huge unreliability on next offer with all the penny sums remaining. Quite an unlucky proveout, and fair enough call on box 23, although I'd have taken it on there, enough utility difference to play for.

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:52 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Shelley:

Image

Bit of a strange decision, taking a decrease after a fairly average round and not electing to use the button in live play, and YET AGAIN we see it used immediately in the proveout for damage limitation purposes... :roll:

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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 Profile  

American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:01 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!
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Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:20 pm
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We're definitely in a period of caution at the moment.

Shelley almost certainly would've used the button at 7 box in live play, though, especially considering she just hit the lowest amount on the board.

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PM me to play a game of my Deal or No Deal series for a shot at $601!

The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:05 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Callum:

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Pretty cautious, but by no means the worst 3rd-offer deal - worth a shot though with all good reds, as the subsequent fairly average rounds that followed proved...

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:10 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: "What would DEAL-EYE have done today...?" is back!

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
American Coupon Boy wrote:
We're definitely in a period of caution at the moment.

Shelley almost certainly would've used the button at 7 box in live play, though, especially considering she just hit the lowest amount on the board.


See, that would be a reason for me NOT to use the button, as it's not a board I'd be thinking about dealing in normal circumstances and I'd be far more inclined to utilise its power in the final round :smt023 It's the 50/50 or weaker boards where the button offers a get-out and puts a bit of pressure on the banker he wouldn't otherwise have had...

Can't recall a time when the button hasn't been played immediately after a deal, it's a cop-out pure and simple!

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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