At this point, I THINK it is safe to say that the mid-2013/early 2014 Banker who forced Deal-Eye to the end in 80%+ of games is long gone, so Deal-Eye is once again a reliable assessor of offers. To "test the waters", I am going to start making daily updates for Deal-Eye once again for month only. If it's Deal-o-meter (it's average deal time, counting the 17 box offer as 1, etc........ and taking the box as 7) is less than 6 at the end of the month, I will definitely continue to make daily Deal-Eye updates during 2015.

However, I should note a few changes. It's "tipping point" for declining Box 23 is £5,140.92, as that's the maximum in which the Benchmark produced by Box 23's potential outcomes is more than or equal to the amount at risk. Also, I will only post the relevant figures from the 3rd offer onwards, as nowadays the first two offers are never even close to the Benchmark. In fact, the last time it would've dealt the 1st offer was in Leon's game in February and the last time it would've dealt the 2nd offer was in Lydon's game in May (and I'm not sure that should even count as it was contingent on the player eating a plate full of prawns ). This also means the Thermo-stat (i.e. the average of the benchmarks as a decimal) will not consider the first two offers, as they always drag it down regardless of the type of player in the chair. It will still only consider in play offers, though, as there have been a few clear hypothetical lies recently (i.e. Serena's game

Anyway, for Ellias' game:

11 box offer: £20,000
Benchmark: £22,704.35 (88%)
Mean: £40,645.45 (49%)
Fair Deal: £20,670.68 (97%)
Verdict: NO DEAL

8 box offer: £26,000
Benchmark: £23,381.85 (111%)
Mean: £45,231.25 (57%)
Fair Deal: £22,194.69 (117%)
Verdict: DEAL

5 box offer: £32,000
Benchmark: £31,083.32 (103%)
Mean: £61,350 (52%)
Fair Deal: £31,507.18 (102%)
Verdict: DEAL

2 box offer: £870
Benchmark: £870.51 (99.94%)
Mean: £875 (99.43%)
Fair Deal: £870.51 (99.94%)
Verdict: NO DEAL

Thermo-stat: 1.00 (Hot)
Deal-o-meter: 4 (will change as the month goes on)
Player's Winnings: £26,000
Deal-Eye's Winnings: £26,000

A clear 8 box Deal today, which is VERY rare nowadays. Really, you'd have to hit the 18% chance of keeping the Top 3 to get a substantial increase, and even you're probably looking into the low 40s. Thankfully both sides see this and come out with a big profit on the box.

Hmm... Ok, as you wish! Perhaps it is worth revisiting at this stage - I'm not sure omitting the first 2 offers from the Thermo-Stat makes much difference though, as it's a comparative analysis across all the games, and whilst they have only been taken by Deal-Eye on a couple of occasions, they set the foundation that the overall TS figure reflects. It just makes the figures artificially higher than previously analysed generally.

Other than that, usual Box 23 threshold arguments notwithstanding, good luck with the next phase of analysis!

If I factor in the first two offers, there will NEVER be a hot game again like today's should be, as they'll almost always be substantially less than the Benchmark regardless of how much the player in the chair unsettles the Banker. I'll definitely be willing to change my mind if Deal-Eye takes a first or second offer in the near future, but that is as likely as the Banker offering six figures on a blue/£250k finish at the moment (i.e. EXTREMELY unlikely but still possible).

Ok then... Let's spice things up a bit with a XMAS PREDICTION COMPETITION!

Based on your new Thermo-stat criteria, starting from tomorrow's show (3rd December), participants will need to predict the correct Thermo-stat score - the first player to get to FIVE CORRECT PREDICTIONS BY 24 DECEMBER will win the Jackpot as determined by box 23:

This will start off at £2 tomorrow, and change based on box 23 contents each day as follows:

DOUBLE = Doubles current prize pool
+£10k = Add £10 to current prize pool
MONEY BACK = No change to prize pool
HALF = Halves current prize pool
NOTHING = Wipes out current prize pool to £0

If 2 or more players reach the total of 5 on the same day, the prize fund will be evenly split. You will win whatever the total is after the day's adjustment. If no player has 5 correct predictions by 24th December inclusive, unfortunately the competition will end and NO money will be paid out...

GOOD LUCK!

So if NOTHING is in Box 23 we'll have wait until it contains +£10,000 again for their to be any prize money?

Also, will there be any margin for error, as it's next to impossible to predict the exact Thermo-stat 5 times in just 15 games?

0.94

1.06

I may as well partake...I'll go for 0.87, please.

0.95

0.85

Hmm... I think it'll be a bit easier than before, as it'll cut out a lot of the "FREEZING" and "COOL" score scenarios...

From Thursday, A player can elect to POWERPLAY with their guess, which will give them a 0.10 margin of error (and 2 points IF they get within this margin), BUT come at a cost of £5 from the current pool, which will be instantly removed. Should there be less than £5 in the prize pool, players will not be able to use this advantage...

Each player will have TWO Powerplays at their disposal, only the first player to state POWERPLAY with their guess each day will count.

POWERPLAY 0.94

I'll predict 0.97.

Why don't you POWERPLAY like me, Ben?

It's not valid until there's at least £5 in the prize pool to "buy" it with, as you well know!

Katie's game:

11 box offer: £16,000
Benchmark: £20,737.07 (77%)
Mean: £41,782.73 (38%)
Fair Deal: £18,724.00 (85%)
Verdict: NO DEAL

8 box offer: £8,000
Benchmark: £8,319.66 (96%)
Mean: £16,813.75 (48%)
Fair Deal: £8,129.97 (98%)
Verdict: NO DEAL

5 box offer: £15,000
Benchmark: £14,991.94 (100.05%)
Mean: £26,002.00 (58%)
Fair Deal: £15,009.94 (99.93%)
Verdict: DEAL

2 box offer: £50,000
Benchmark: £48,114.92 (104%)
Mean: £57,500.00 (87%)
Fair Deal: £48,114.92 (104%)
Verdict: DEAL

Thermo-stat: 0.91 (Warm)
Deal-o-meter: 4.5
Player's Winnings: £15,000
Deal-Eye's Winnings: £15,000
Players' Total Winnings: £41,000
Deal-Eye's Total Winnings: £41,000


For the 2nd game in a row, a rare 5 box configuration is produced is which Deal-Eye's Benchmark is below the Fair Deal, and for the 2nd game in a row Deal-Eye does exactly the same as the player. Some well pitched offers throughout, as the 11 box offer would tempt cautious players with only the Top 3 above the offer, and the 8 box offer was a decent life-line after a bad round. The 5 box offer was the most arguable of them all, though, as it was just high enough to make it look like a 1 box game. In fact, while I probably would've dealt today's 5 box offer, had it been £14,999 I would've been VERY tempted to go on!

A deal at 5-box by just £8.06! That must be one of the closest deals DEAL-EYE has ever done!

Jem's game:

11 box offer: £13,000
Benchmark: £21,985.94 (59%)
Mean: £43,319.64 (30%)
Fair Deal: £15,870.33 (82%)
Verdict: NO DEAL

8 box offer: £26,000
Benchmark: £32,726.41 (79%)
Mean: £59,470.13 (44%)
Fair Deal: £28,731.53 (90%)
Verdict: NO DEAL

5 box offer: £25,000
Benchmark: £30,494.94 (82%)
Mean: £65,102.20 (38%)
Fair Deal: £25,624.60 (98%)
Verdict: NO DEAL

2 box offer: £26,000 (Banker's Gamble)
Benchmark: £19,185.51 (136%)
Mean: £37,505.00 (69%)
Fair Deal: £19,185.51 (136%)
Verdict: DEAL (or NO DEAL to the Banker's Gamble )

Thermo-stat: 0.69 (Cool)
Deal-o-meter: 5
Player's Winnings: £26,000
Deal-Eye's Winnings: £26,000
Players' Total Winnings: £67,000
Deal-Eye's Total Winnings: £67,000


No surprises today for those who are at all familiar with Deal-Eye's methodology. It was a top-heavy board throughout, and I certainly don't blame Jem for dealing when she did given the amount at risk and the precarious state of the board. The Banker's Gamble was VERY poorly pitched for the player (but then again so is Box 23 over half the time ), but it gifted Deal-Eye a draw when otherwise it probably would've lost from dealing a £20,000 to £23,000 offer at 2 box.



Did I call it or what?! Today's Thermo-stat is proof, if any was needed, that excluding the first 2 offers doesn't automatically make all games fall within the same range on the Thermo-stat. The Banker, while using the Fair Deal as his main benchmark as of late, still tailors most serious offers to the player.

Sadly, this means that no progress has been made in the Deal-Eye competition , but at least the prize fund has been doubled to £4 thanks to Box 23.

I predict 0.78

I predict 0.89.