Was just thinking about the £26k offer today (which I'd have declined), and contemplating that if I'd ended up with the £750/£15k or £750/£20k finish at 2-box, I think I'd HAVE to abandon all usual mathematical logic and TURN DOWN the average, as on balance I'd probably be more gutted at dealing and finding out I had a chunky red then crashing the £750!

Which sounds ridiculous, but I could write-off winning the blue as horrendously unlucky, but to have had 1 of the 4 reds from 5-box and missed out on it would be deeply frustrating!


What are people's views if they'd had this scenario?!

My general rule is to not let the flow of the game affect my valuation of the offer at 2 box. With £750 being the fall-back, which is still a very good sum, that wouldn't be too hard in your scenario. However, had it been replaced with a lower blue, I may have been willing to lower my valuation of the finish SLIGHTLY to avoid crashing from a HUGE sum to a blue. Therefore, while I would need roughly £6,000 to Deal on a £750/£15k finish and wouldn't let previous events in the game affect it, I would also normally need £5,500 to Deal on a £1/£15k finish but I may have been willing to accept as little as £4,000 on that finish if crashing from the governor to virtually nothing was a possibility.

I actually fall for this kind of scenario every time it happens when I play online. It is really hard psychologically to justify dealing a smaller amount than the one you had three boxes ago; to me it feels like, "Well, if I had declined that amount earlier, I might as well decline this earlier." This is of course coupled with the feelings of frustration: "Damnit, why couldn't I take out that blue!"

This is really why people who deal the round after a crash are pretty respectable to me; they did something that is really, really difficult to do. Let's ignore the fact that these offers are in fact lower or usually less generous due to a stingy/mean banker and accept that they didn't make the mistake of crashing all the way to a blue, but rather to an orange.