There are many factors that come in to play in deciding when to deal, but knowing the odds can be more than useful. Here are some from the all important 8 box stage

1) Let's assume there are two large reds, one fairly small red, and 5 blues left:
eg:

10p £5,000
£1
£10
£500 £75,000
£750 £100,000

The odds of taking out all 3 reds in the next 3 boxes=1.8%
The odds of taking out the two highest reds in the next 3 boxes=9.3%
The odds of taking out at least one of the two highest reds in the next 3 boxes=64%

When there are two high reds only, taking out one of them at this stage usually results in a lower banker offer, though not always.

2) Let's assume that there is only one high red. Effectively it is a one box game:

10p £1,000
£1 £3,000
£10
£500
£750 £100,000

The odds of taking out all 3 reds in the next 3 boxes=1.8%
The odds of taking out the highest red in the next 3 boxes=37.5%

Though risky, the odds are that in carrying on, the banker's offer will increase after the next 3 boxes are opened.

3) What if you have 3 high reds left with 8 boxes left:

10p
£1
£10 £50,000
£500 £75,000
£750 £250,000

The odds of taking out all 3 reds in the next 3 boxes=1.8%
The odds of taking out the highest red in the next 3 boxes=37.5%
The odds of taking out the two highest reds in the next 3 boxes=9.3%

This is a healthier scenario, and with a board like this, it is odds on that the banker's offer will increase after the next 3 boxes.

Let's look at the 5 box stage with the odds in opening 3 boxes:

4) There are two high reds left:

10p
£500 £75,000
£750 £100,000

The odds of taking out the 2 high reds=30%
The odds of taking out the 3 highest amounts=10%
The odds of taking out the 3 blues=10%
The odds of taking out one or more of the 2 reds=90%

The odds are against improving on the banker's offer, but if he has offered a low amount, it might be worth the huge gamble to achieve life-changing money.

5) One large red only at the 5 box stage:

10p
£500 £1,000
£750 £100,000

The odds of taking out the largest red box=60%

If the banker's offer is low, the odds against 40% gamble might be worth it.

6) Three reds that are £20,000 or more at the 5 box stage:

10p £20,000
£500 £50,000
£100,000
The odds of taking out all the reds=10%
The odds of taking out the two largest reds=30%
The odds of taking out just one red=30%
The odds of taking out at least one of the two largest reds=90%

You have a 70% chance of being left with at least one of the two highest numbers after you have taken out the next three boxes which means that statistically, it is worth going on with a board like that.

7) Two boxes left:
£35,000 £250,000

I think most people know the odds on this one, but how many would make a decision to no deal here if the banker's offer was £95,000?

I would DEFINATELY no deal. £35,000 isnt bad is it? And £95,000 is tiny for that board!

I agree, £35,000 is a good safety net!

£35,000 is £60,000 below the offer and £250,000 is £155,000 above the offer so I would NO DEAL

I'd probably err on the side of caution and DEAL on that board to be honest. £95,000 is life changing money whereas £35,000 would obviously make a difference but not alter my life in the way that a large sum of money would.

Seems I'm in the minority though.

Good work Rico7 with the odds!

It is useful also to know the odds at the 11 box stage even though it is not usually wise to deal at that point. Here are three good examples:

1) Let's assume there are three large reds, then a very large gap:

10p £1,000
£1 £3,000
£10
£100 £75,000
£500 £100,000
£750 £250,000



The odds of taking out the 3 highest reds in the next 3 boxes=0.6%
The odds of taking out the two highest reds in the next 3 boxes=5%
The odds of taking out at least one of the two highest reds in the next 3 boxes=50.9%
The odds of taking out at least one of the three highest reds in the next 3 boxes=66.1%
The odds of not taking out at least one of the three highest reds in the next 3 boxes=33.9%


2) Let's assume there are just two large reds, then a very large gap:

10p £1,000
£1 £3,000
£10 £5,000
£100
£500 £100,000
£750 £250,000

The odds of taking out at least one of the two highest reds in the next 3 boxes=50.9%
The odds of taking out the highest red in the next 3 boxes=27.3%
The odds of not taking out the two highest reds in the next 3 boxes=49.1%

3) Let's assume there are is just one large red, and it is a effectively a one box game:

1p £1,000
10p £3,000
£1 £5,000
£10
£100
£500
£750 £250,000

The odds of taking out at the highest red in the next 3 boxes=27.3%
The odds of taking out at the highest red in the next 6 boxes=55%

The odds are against still having the £250,000 for the 5 box stage, but with this board it's quite possible that an offer in excess of £10,000 would not come until the 2 box stage, in the unlikely event of the £250,000 still being in place, and the odds of that from this position are 21%