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Was Jeff's Deal
Poll ended at Wed Jun 05, 2013 5:49 pm
Sensible 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Reasonable 20%  20%  [ 2 ]
Cautious 70%  70%  [ 7 ]
Horrible 10%  10%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 10
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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 5:49 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Jeff's Decision
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Since we do these polls for controversial No Deals, I thought it would be fitting to do one for a controversial Deal.

I personally think it was cautious as odds were he would keep the £250k one more round and even if he didn't he still had 4 good consolation amounts, but it certainly wasn't bad enough for him to join the Horrible Deals club as there was only 1 amount higher and £7,180 (=U.S. $10,833) is a lot to risk with a good chance of losing most of it.

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Saperogo

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 5:59 pm    Author: Saperogo    Post subject: Re: Jeff's Decision
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I voted cautious. (Me, voting a deal cautious? :shock: )

The advantage of having one amount higher than the offer is that all you need for a higher offer is to keep the highest amount in play. Whether it's worth dealing or not depends on how much of an uplift you can expect. The prove-out fifth offer here was incredibly inflated, but a fifth-offer of around £15,000 would probably be reasonable. That's just over double the £7,180, so getting more than 2:1 odds on the 62.5% chance of keeping the £250,000 in play is quite good.

But £7,180 is indeed a hefty amount to gamble, especially considering that if the £250,000 is taken out, the only way of getting a comparable amount of money is to go all the way and have £3k or £5k in the box, or deal on a £1k/£5k or £3k/£5k finish.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 6:44 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Jeff's Decision
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I'm tempted to say all four!!

Cautious to deal at barely £7k with the £250k in tow; sensible to not chase the one-box game; reasonable generosity for the massive volatility; and a horrible result.

I voted for "reasonable," though.

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Mark

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 7:28 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: Jeff's Decision

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Cautious...very in my view.

If multi choice was there I would have gone for horrible as well.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 9:01 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: Jeff's Decision
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Cautious for me...

Depends what you think a board with the £250k is going to be worth. I'd reckon between £15k-£20k. If I was guaranteed £26k for keeping the QM, I'd say it was a very cautious decision statistically.

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