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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 5:01 pm    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)
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Part 1

Thank you for your replies to part 1 of this question challenge. If you haven't already done so, you can read and reply to the first part of this question in the link above.

Again, I'd appreciate it if you would consider the question first before reading the replies below. It's up to you, but it might affect what you say in you reply. Here's part 2, in spoiler tags:

You're playing the game for real, with the pilgrims watching, Noel, and the players on the wings. It's very exciting, with a lot of gasps, talking and cheering, and everyone is marvelling at the board in front of you:

£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
£100,000
£250,000


The banker calls, and offers you £98,000. This time, though, the banker says that if you no deal, then at 2-box, you will be guaranteed to receive an offer that's equal to the mean.
What would you do in this situation? :ponder:

When you're ready, click the reply button above this post. Final part coming soon!

(more padding follows...)

























(padding ends)


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Lewis246

PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 6:06 pm    Author: Lewis246    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)

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As I would be expecting an offer close to the mean on any finish other than £35k/QM anyway, still deal.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 6:34 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)
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Well, that makes it a demonstrably positive-expectation gamble, but not by much, not quite by enough. Deal. Just.

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thundercat

PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:26 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)

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As I said no deal the first time, my decision this time isn't affected whatsoever, instead I would more willingly turn it down.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 1:15 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)
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Given my calculations the last time about the 2-box offers were pretty close to the mean anyway, no change. Still DEAL.

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mr_northern_guy

PostPosted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 12:20 pm    Author: mr_northern_guy    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)

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Still No Deal, because the Banker giving the mean doesn't happen very often and it means that he's given a lot of respect.


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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 1:20 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)

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To be honest, I said No Deal originally - I guess if you're guaranteed fairly big money then I reckon I'd go crazy (as opposed to big-money 5-box boards with one or two blues in play where I feel really cautious).

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thundercat

PostPosted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 9:32 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)

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James1978 wrote:
To be honest, I said No Deal originally - I guess if you're guaranteed fairly big money then I reckon I'd go crazy (as opposed to big-money 5-box boards with one or two blues in play where I feel really cautious).


That's exactly my point.. its such a stable board good for tossing the offer aside on and playing on regardless.

Whilst I hate it when people deal 2 box offers with such a small loss involved (eg. £75,000/£100,000) it would be much more less of a sin in my books doing that rather than dealing on the dream 5 box board. We can get another £75,000/£100,000 finish every once in 230 odd shows, but the dream 5 box board would statistically come up once in every 25,000 shows...

If anyone dealt under £90,000 on this board on the real programme I would blurt out posts similar to that of late 06.. and i really wouldn't want that to happen

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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 1:28 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)

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Deal.

I'd be expecting near mean offers on the final pairing anyway. Obviously maybe £5k/£10k or whatever down but that's not enough to change my mind.

Still quite happy to walk with £100k tyvm.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:26 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)

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No Deal here. Might even be tempted to deal an awkward £142,500 or £162,500 at 2-box :D

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Skyline

PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2011 3:34 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)
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No Deal, no question.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 3:58 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 5-box scenario: What would you do? (2/3)
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With £35,000 guaranteed, my wakey side would begin to kick in...I expect £95,000 with that 5-box board, but still £98,000 is hell of a lot!

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