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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:39 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Summer Situations: 9-12
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What is the lowest amount you would consider Dealing in this situation, and what is the lowest amount you would be certain of Dealing in this situation?

Other situations: 1-4 | 5-8

These situation responses form the basis of "Player Profiling" - an experimental method for assessing gameplay styles beyond one-dimensional measurements of risk-aversion.

Situation 9
1p
10p
£1
£5

£1,000
£3,000
£5,000
£20,000
£35,000
£50,000
£250,000

Regular rules, three to open

Situation 10
£1,000
£50,000

Standard two-box showdown, no twists

Situation 11
£3,000
£5,000
£100,000

One box to open

Situation 12
1p
£3,00
£10,000
£15,000
£35,000

Regular play, three to open

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DanS

PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 1:11 pm    Author: DanS    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12
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9. Consider = £20,000. Definitely = £45,000
10. Consider = £10,000. Definitely = £20,000
11. Consider = £15,000. Definitely = £35,000
12. Consider = £10,000. Definitely = £17,500


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oho

PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 1:38 pm    Author: oho    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:10 pm
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9. Consider = £20,000. Definitely = £35,000
10. Consider = £14,000. Definitely = £18,000
11. Consider = £12,000. Definitely = £14,000 sorry though the 100k was 50k
Consider = 17.5 k deal 25k
12. Consider = £8,000. Definitely = £11,000 :laughing


Last edited by oho on Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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yellowzebra8

PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 7:39 pm    Author: yellowzebra8    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Sun Feb 15, 2009 7:49 pm
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Situation 9 =
Consider - 25k
Certain - 45k

Situation 10 =
Consider - 15k
Certain - 30k

Situation 11 =
Consider - 16k
Certain - 30k

Situation 12 =
Consider - 6k
Certian - 14k


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:20 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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9. Nice 11-box board. I'm not looking to leave at this point, and I don't necessarily think I'd have the chance to with 2010 offers. I'd consider £20,001 (i.e. just over £20k leaving just three larger) and I'd definitely be out at £35,000.

10. It's the thousand here that bumps up my motion to continue here. I'd say consider £17,500 and I'm definitely out at £23,000

11. Well its all a case of just missing that hundred really, and where you've got to this 3-box from. If from a bad round, you'd be punished with this offer hanging somewhere in the early twenties and I'd want to carry on. Mid twenties after a good round. But I'd probably consider £25,000 and definitely take £33,000

12. Three numbers on the board here you'd class as influential, so again, realistically, I'm carrying on at this stage. Considering £10,000 and definitely dealing at £15,000 in an unrealistic outlook, because 40% of the time you've got an all-red finish.

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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:50 pm    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12
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9. £15,000; £25,000.
10. £15,000; £20,000.
11. £17,500; £25,000.
12. £8,000; £10,500.


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 12:22 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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I'll just provide the EV figures again to see how/if they compare with others, the 1st figure based around what 'medium-risk' players would take and the 2nd around what 'high-risk' players would take, purely in my own opinion though:

(Abbreviations: MRP - Medium Risk Player HRP - High Risk Player)

9. Ok, this is interesting at the 11-box points, as it estimates much less than I thought, but it takes into account the relatively balanced power 5's. However, I think the banker is likely to offer these sums to the players specified, even though they probably wouldn't be taken at this point in the game granted:
MRP: £15,178.68 HRP: £21,577.76
10. Fair Deal of £16,285.53 (I'd consider £17k and definitely deal £21k)
11. 3-box situations is where the program breaks down a bit with the median pair value; Expected Value of £25,269.03 less than the median pair of £34,410.25. I think most players would go for close to the EV with 3k guaranteed, MRPs dealing £20k or more and HRPs dealing £25k or more in my opinion.
12. MRP: £9,212.05 HRP: £10,117.37

I more I think about this, especially with regards to the last situation, the more I think 'medium-risk' and 'high-risk' are the wrong terms to be using, as it's apparent rejecting the Expected Value at 80% of the mean on a stable board is quite an 'acceptable' risk really... :ponder:

Lot to think about with player behaviour patterns anyway, I look forward to reading your conclusions in due course KP! :D

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cfd

PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:53 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
9: 15k/20k
10: 10k/15k
11: 20k/20k (not a typo - assuming a 35k offer if i don't hit the red i'm expecting a 2/3 chance of +£15k an a 1/3 chance of about -£15k)
12: 9k/11k


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wokoman88

PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 8:15 pm    Author: wokoman88    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2006 7:57 pm
Location: Willenhall
Warnings: 0
9. £20,000/£35,000

10. £17,000/£20,000

11. £20,000/£26,000

12. I go with what Aaron said on this. Even a right on the mean offer (£12,600) has a 60% of appearing again, so £12,000/£15,000

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James1978

PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 8:31 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
Warnings: 0
9. Consider £17,500, definite deal £23,000
10. Consider £14,000, definite deal £17,000
11. Consider £20,000, definite deal £25,000
12. Consider £9,000, definite deal £11,000 (very little room to make an offer that isn't an easy decision either way to be honest!)

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Aug 05, 2010 10:29 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
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9) Consider £18k, deal £25k
10) Consider £13k, deal £18k
11) Consider £18k, deal £22k
12) Consider £7k, deal £11k.

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Tom

PostPosted: Sat Aug 07, 2010 9:30 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
Location: Suffolk. That's as detailed as I'm going..
Warnings: 0
9. £25,000 , £35,000.
10. £12,500 , £17,500.
11. £20,000 , £30,000.
12. £7,000, £12,000.


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:16 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12
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Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Warnings: 0
9. 15k / 20k
10. 13k / 17k
11. 17k / 22k
12. 6k / 9.5k

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wkd

PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 7:41 am    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:04 pm
Warnings: 0
9.20k/32k
10. 20k/24k
11. 30k/35k
12. 10k/12k


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Ben Miller 176

PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2010 10:11 pm    Author: Ben Miller 176    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 9:38 pm
Warnings: 0
9. £17k/£22k
10. £13k/£16k
11. £18k/£23k
12. £8k/£11k


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mr_northern_guy

PostPosted: Sat Aug 14, 2010 11:08 am    Author: mr_northern_guy    Post subject: Re: Summer Situations: 9-12

Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:26 pm
Warnings: 0
9) Consider: £15,000, Definitely: £17,500
10) Consider: £11,000, Definitely: £12,500
11) Consider: £9,000, Definitely: £15,000
12) Consider: £3,000, Definitely: £6,500


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