Out of the following scenarios, would you deal or no deal?

Scenario 1

10p
£250,000


Offer: £32,000


Scenario 2

1p
£1
£75,000
£100,000
£250,000

Offer: £49,000


Scenario Three

£250
£500
£750
£1,000
£3,000

Offer: £1,001


Scenario Four

10p
50p
£1
£5
£50
£100
£250
£250,000
Offer: £6,000


Scenario Five

10p
£100,000

Offer: £19,900


For me, a reluctant deal to all of them except three and four.

I'd also deal all of them except 3 and 4.

1. I'd have to no-deal becuase that offer is terrible and I wouldn't want to encourage them to do it again!

2. Very reluctant deal (though I'd want to know the offer on any red/blue finish to be sure).

3. No-deal, on that configuration it would take the mean for me to deal and that's £99 short by my calculations!

4. Definitely no-deal, I would regret selling the £250k for £6k an awful lot more than losing it and winning a blue.

5. I'd have to deal, it's not as poor an offer as #1!

Scenario 1 - not sure what events would cause the banker to be that stingy but probably a no-deal.
Scenario 2 - deal.
Scenario 3 - I'm probably no dealing any 2 box offer so deal.
Scenario Four = No deal (with the proviso of getting the banker to give me a decent offer at 5-box if the QM remained in play)
Scenario Five - Deal.

Scenario 1: No Deal. That one comes down to whether £250,000 is twice as useful to me as £32,000, and it is.

Scenario 2: Depends entirely on whether I could expect a 'rewarding courage' offer on a red/blue finish. I don't think the 10% disaster chance scares me there (but surely you'd deal in a flash because of that chance, James1978?) but if I'm forced on with a red/blue finish that chance quadruples and that does scare me. Probably a reluctant Deal.

Scenario 3: Bit less exciting this one isn't it? *does maths* £5,500 on the board, mean is £1,100, I'm playing on. If only for the hope of a slightly more amusing two-box offer!

Scenario 4: I'd need a five-box guarantee to chase this. I'm not playing for a 1/8 shot of £250k from there, and would want a bit more - only a bit more, mind - than the standard £15k for four blues and £250k to chase the 5/8 chance of an all-blue round 5.

Scenario 5: I'd just about chase this. Is £100,000 twice as useful to me as £19,900? Probably.

I would deal becuase of the 10% chance but would want to turn it down if you know what I mean. Also if I knew the 2-box offer was generous I'd have to way that up in my calculations, but you would have to keep two reds to guarantee more I would think.

No Deal all!

No deal to all except Scenario Three

1: No Deal. The odds are nearly 7:1 on the money, and while £32k is a lot, even if it were 1p instead of 10p, I would probably go for it.

2: This one's come up before. On the forum, it was £45k, and on the show (with two different blues) £55k. Based on the balance system saying that with £25k as the low point (1x £100k + 2x £75k, then /10) and £85k as the average, with risk aversion included, £49k is a deal for me.

3: Yeah, I'm chasing the £99. Don't need a system for that one.

4: Another system's useful for this scenario: the expansion system. It basically states that you should consider what might appear to be a small offer, if you would take an offer that's the same percentage of the mean at a later stage, where the risk is higher.

E.g. £10,000 might not seem great, but the 1 in 4 times you reach 2-box with the £250k, you would have to consider risking potentially £40,000. Unless you believe the offer would be higher, or can risk that amount, dealing £10,000 would be the wiser option.

So £6,000 at 8-box here is equivalent to being offered £24,000 at 2-box. That's a bit too low for me; closer to £10k would get me thinking.

5: I would risk it here again. £20k is nice, but £100k is a lot more.

1. Incredibly stingy offer so most likely No Deal.
2. Deal, due to how low the two blues are. Make them a bit bigger and I'd be tempted.
3. No deal.
4. No deal.
5. Deal.

scenario 1 - don't know... would probably deal for fear of losing 32k and going home with 10p...
scenario 2 - don't know about that either lol... the thought of having a perfect final 3 though would probably push me to go on...
scenario 3 - no deal.
scenario 4 - no deal, it's a poor offer for a board with the 250k still on, and odds are you're gonna have an all-blue round next.
scenario 5 - would probably deal for the same reason as scenario 1...

Scenario 1

10p
£250,000


Offer: £32,000

DEAL


Scenario 2

1p
£1
£75,000
£100,000
£250,000

Offer: £49,000

DEAL


Scenario Three

£250
£500
£750
£1,000
£3,000

Offer: £1,001

NO DEAL

Scenario Four

10p
50p
£1
£5
£50
£100
£250
£250,000
Offer: £6,000

NO DEAL


Scenario Five

10p
£100,000

Offer: £19,900

DEAL

Scenario 1 - definitely No Deal
Scenario 2 - Likely No Deal
Scenario 3 - Deal
Scenario 4 - Absolute No Deal
Scenario 5 - No Deal

No Deal to all of them

No Deal to all exept 1 & 2

I'd deal all except 3 and 4.

Would prob think hard about 1...but still no deal
No deal the rest