There are many different types of contestants on the show - analyists, targetists, people who plow on regardless (Wakeyists), and people who are highly risk-averse (a la Beryl). One particular type of Wakeyist stands out - the confetti hound.

A 'confetti hound' is basically a person who chases the 250k while it's still on the board, but instantly reverts to a different form of player once it's gone from the game. A very good example of this was Di back in early 2007. She had a 5-box of 10p/£100/£15k/£20k/£250k, and received an offer of 44k, which almost everybody would have taken. She turned it down, but even as she did it, you could tell that she was the right sort of person emotionally and financially to be taking such huge risks. When it was discovered, she clearly took it very badly, and perhaps still regrets it to this day. This resulted in a four-figure deal, almost certainly due to the horror of her failed gamble. That said, it was an extremely generous offer for the board (8k on 10p/20k), but when someone's turned down over five times that amount, it can seem a surprising decision until you look closer into what Di was like. Overall, Di was basically someone who pinned too many hopes on winning the jackpot, when she wasn't prepared to lose out a lot if it went wrong.

Recently, we had Corinne. Actually, Corinne isn't what I'd call a 'confetti hound', per se, but rather, she was a blind targetist with a target that just so happened to be almost the same as the top prize... Unlike Di, Corinne seemed much more prepared to lose it all, and we got to see this in action. When the penny was revealed, she kept on smiling, and didn't shed a single tear. But this begs an interesting question: how would Corinne have played had she picked the quarter million out early on? Had that happened, achieving her dream would have been impossible, so she may have reverted to a more reasoned attitude towards the game. However, that said, she didn't seem to want the money for anything else. The only offer she even considered was 88k, and even then she made up her mind fairly quickly! So really it could be argued either way regarding what she would have done otherwise.

Ultimately, confetti hounds rarely get the chance to prove themselves to be chasing the top prize. People will often claim to be one in order to attract higher offers which they would subsequently deal. This technique can backfire, however, such as when Craig was offered three swaps in a row when he said that he would never deal with 250k in play. That said, he proved to be a Wakeyist anyway, turning down a 8-box offer comparable in generosity to those of Gaz' game recently. This can disguise the true confetti hounds and blend them in with everyone else. Sometimes they don't get the chance to prove themselves at all if they take the 250k within the first three rounds, because from there they may well revert to becoming a normal player again!

One reason this may be so is how large the jackpot is compared to the second largest prize. £250,000 is 250% the size of the second largest prize of 100k. For comparison, in the US version, the top prize is 133.33% the size of the second highest (1 million compared to $750,000), and in most other versions such as the French and Italian ones the top prize is around twice as much...

Overall, these are one of the rarest and most elusive types of deal or no deal contestants in existence, and can either produce breath-takingly exciting game or compeltely mundane ones depending on the circumstances!

Very interesting post. The jackpot being so isolated from the rest of the board has to be worth something, as does the emphasis placed upon it, which I think only the US show clearly exceeded.



Well, exactly. These are the ones that too often are on Noel's conscience. It's all very well talking up the show and the money, but sometimes - not always, but back then very often indeed - he oversteps the mark, and the more you do that, the more likely you are to get a game like that. (1p Matty is another excellent example of a contestant who didn't realise the risks he took on until it was too late, but that was less to do with the £250k and more to do with the ADP, I think.)

Correct distinction with Corinne, by the way; the same target on Miljoenenjacht would have made her take a few offers that I would turn down. (After accounting for tax, and at the current exchange rate, she'd have been chasing €300k, which on a good board is very attainable indeed... and would have her dealing before both me and the contestant on this game.)

Oops. Yeah, I meant to write that Di was NOT the right sort of person to take those sorts of risks. My mistake...

I think that male contestants have added pressure to act in this way from Noel. Ever since Laura's win, Noel has been going on about 'our first male quarter millionaire', and Alice's game only heightened that attitude. In fact, we haven't really had the chance to see any male blindly chasing the jackpot; those who confess as such either end up dealing or take it out too early to prove it. The closest we've seen is with Morris, who gambled 101k at the final offer, but unlike Corinne and Di, such a decision wasn't actually that bad statistically, and he seemed to be implying that he planned to play to the end regardless, even without the 250k, so whether or not he can qualify as a 'confetti hound' is debatable. Kirsty had 75k guaranteed, 'nuff said.

Age might also be a factor. When it comes to older contestants, their age tends to either make them more or less risk-averse, and rarely does it have no effect at all. On the one hand, you obviously have less money when you're retired, so it means a lot more. However, they'd also have most likely finished paying their mortgage, and generally would not 'need' the money as much. In addition, if you lost out on 88k as Corinne did, then you'd probably regret it for the rest of your life (I'd be highly surprised if Corinne wasn't upset at all about her loss after her show was finished). For someone of Corinne's age, that would probably be no longer than a decade, but if you're young, you'd have to live with it for 50+ years...

Considering all this, it's quite ironic that the two people who have won 250k have both been in their early 20s and both were 20k targetists (I still find it strange how Laura turned down £19,999 at 5-box on the board she had bearing this targetism in mind, though this is often overshadowed the jackpot win itself).

Different utility functions - most crucially differing from others in that £20k is rarely an inflection point. I can think of many reasons for £20k to be a key milestone on a twentysomething player's utility function - wedding costs, deposit for a house, family car, probably more. Precisely none of these are ever going to apply to a retired contestant - they are more likely to think in terms of meeting day-to-day expenses or perhaps fulfilling a long-held ambition in their last years in life, each of which implies either the Beryl or Corinne attitudes to the game.



Has arguably been ever thus - with the notable exception of Donna (who obviously annoyed him in any event), and inconsistently Ingerlise (he went from a grotesque guilt trip to genuine sympathy in what was perhaps the clearest indication yet that he does this for the cameras and nothing else), female contestants have scarcely ever received the same intensity of criticism for early Deals as male contestants.



So do I. Oh, goodness, so do I. I still wonder what intervention got edited out of the final show. Sarah's? Dennis's? Noel's?

Beryl seemed, to some extent, to be an analytical player with an extreme aversion to risk. She said that she'd deal if she couldn't see two rounds ahead, and seeing as how the only significant reds left were 15k and 250k, and she still had all of the banker's power five, a deal was the right choice for her considering her philosophy.




He varies greatly in that regard. Generally, if the person playing is either: a) a sweet old lady or b) someone Noel fancies, he's generally not so rough with them. Men by definition can be neither of these, which would explain why they get criticised for early deals more. If it's a woman that Noel doesn't fancy much, he'll guilt trip them just as much as men. For example, Anne-Marie dealt at 12k, could've had 12k more (though this was due to proveout AMOs, so her loss was actually even less than that!), and Noel figuratively ripped her apart, but was much nicer to other contestants who lost out on considerably more...




Didn't Dennis say she should deal at that point?

I just find it very strange that someone would come with an amount of money in mind (considering her age, perhaps to clear university debts?), get offered it on a silver platter, and then turn it down when there's a 60% chance of losing at least 75% of it. I know I'd have taken it; in fact, I'd have been tempted to take £14,999 at 8-box.