Today, Danielle was offered a (nearly) mean offer inventive at 2-box of £10,000 had she chosen to no-deal £5,000 at 3-box. She declined this, but with the promise of an AMO, would you carry on when faced with these situations:

1. Danielle's Dilemma
2. £10k at 5-box with 4 blues and £50k, 2 box offer will be £25k
3. £10k at 8-box with 7 blues and £75k, 5 box offer will be £20k
4. £10k at 5-box with 3 blues, £5k and £100k, 2 box offer will be £52,501 provided you have an all-blue round, otherwise it will be a swap!
5. £45k at 3-box with 2 blues and £250k, 2-box offer will be £125k

1. Danielle's Dilemma - if I was still in-play at 3-box, I'd have done what Danielle did
2. £10k at 5-box with 4 blues and £50k, 2 box offer will be £25k - deal the £10k
3. £10k at 8-box with 7 blues and £75k, 5 box offer will be £20k - deal the £10k
4. £10k at 5-box with 3 blues, £5k and £100k, 2 box offer will be £52,501 provided you have an all-blue round, otherwise it will be a swap! - probably no deal at £10k and hopefully deal £52,501 at 2-box. And with a swap-only offer forcing a no deal, there's a reasonable chance I'd get at least £5k or maybe even £100k.
5. £45k at 3-box with 2 blues and £250k, 2-box offer will be £125k - deal the £45k

Believe me, the fear of winning a blue when you're sat in that chair is very real and scary (at least it was to me). The size of the blues never make much difference to me - a blue is a blue. Yes, £750 is better spending money than 1p, but £10k would be significantly better (as in the examples above). A 4 blues / 1 red 5-box board is terrifying, 3 blues / 2 reds is pretty worrying, 2 blues / 3 reds is more re-assuring, but it's only when you get to 1 blue / 4 reds that you can feel very safe that there's an extremely low chance of winning a blue.

So out of those 5 options above, the only one I'd take is the 4th one due to the potentially huge increase and also the fact that £5k is sitting there as a back-up. I wouldn't think it was worth it in the other ones due to the high risk of crashing from £10k to nothing.

1. Danielle's dilemma I would have no dealt the £5,000 and got an offer of £10,000 but I honestly don't know what I would have done at this point.
2. With the offer being the average and there being a 60% chance of taking out the £50,000 most likely a deal.
3. I would no deal the 8-box as there is only a 37.5% chance of taking out the big one.
4. No deal this one.
5. Definitely no deal this one particularly as there is a good chance of the £125,000 offer.

Out of all the options I would have no dealt options 3,4 and 5. Dealt at number 2 but wouldn't know what to do with the £10,000 offer (number 1).

1. No - this is actually Daimon's double-or-nothing finish with a blue instead of nothing! £4k and I'd do it for sure.
2. Hell to the no. That's still an EV=0 gamble.
3. That's at least a positive-expectation gamble, but a 5/8 chance of doubling up isn't worth it.
4. 10% chance of £52.5k, 90% chance of take-the-box? It'd come down to whether I could take the 60% chance of a blue. I'd be tempted.
5. Yes. For this to not be worthwhile, £45k would have to be two-thirds as useful to me as £125k, which at my stage in life it isn't.

1. Danielle's Dilemma NO DEAL
2. £10k at 5-box with 4 blues and £50k, 2 box offer will be £25k DEAL
3. £10k at 8-box with 7 blues and £75k, 5 box offer will be £20k NO DEAL
4. £10k at 5-box with 3 blues, £5k and £100k, 2 box offer will be £52,501 provided you have an all-blue round, otherwise it will be a swap! NO DEAL
5. £45k at 3-box with 2 blues and £250k, 2-box offer will be £125k NO DEAL

The only one mildly tempting to no-deal would be 4. £10k (sat at home) is an amount I think I'd be Ok losing for the chance of much bigger money.

Given I'd definitely deal at 2-box on options 2 and 3, the potential gains aren't that great so i would deal those.

Number 5 seems statistically the best to no-deal but I'd be too devastated to drop from an £45k offer to a blue if it happened, so would have to deal it. I loathe my attitude to this game sometimes.

above