1. The original Doreen situation with a twist. Seven blues and the quarter-million. The offer is £20,000 but if you have an all-blue round the following offer will be £50,000.
2. Exactly the same situation, but replace £250,000 with £500,000.
3. Exactly the same situation as 2, but with guaranteed offers at 4-box and 3-box.
4. The same situation as 3, but there is no 5-box offer guarantee.

I would Deal 1, Deal 2 because I'd still Deal £50,000 on a four blues/£500k finish, unsure on 3 because a £50k ND at 5-box would have huge reward for only a 20% chance of disaster, and Deal 4.

I first read that after a drink and was confused. I'm sober now and am still confused!

I hinted at the first in the "What would you have done" thread. I'd still deal £20k on a £50k/blue coinflip with a 5/8 weighted coin.

Does number 4 mean you have to go 4 boxes before another offer? That's a definite deal too.

I don't particularly want to no-deal any of them!

Deal 4, maybe 1 and 2, but a definite NO DEAL on 3.

1.The offer is £20,000 but if you have an all-blue round the following offer will be £50,000.

No deal, a 62.5% chance of a 150% increase has to be worth the risk!


2. Exactly the same situation, but replace £250,000 with £500,000.

Definitely no deal, 20K is far too low with half a million still in play!

3. Exactly the same situation as 2, but with guaranteed offers at 4-box and 3-box.

I would probably no deal and see what the 4-box offer was, anything 80K or over and I'm dealing!

4. The same situation as 3, but there is no 5-box offer guarantee.


I would deal this because too much risk of losing 50K.

The 37.5% chance is hitting the £250k. Not hitting it is a 62.5% chance (which I suppose makes your argument even stronger).

Oops, that's what I meant to say thanks for the correction, I'll edit it now.

By 4, I meant the Banker doesn't make a fixed guarantee at five-box, but it's a usual uncertain situation where you don't know what the offer will be!

I'd probably ND all of them, possibly deal 4, but I'd be tempted by only having to open one box before the next offer.

Deal 1, 2 and 4. Probably no deal 3.

I'd ND all of them. 20K is not too big to turn down.

1. The original Doreen situation with a twist. Seven blues and the quarter-million. The offer is £20,000 but if you have an all-blue round the following offer will be £50,000.
I would most probably deal, but I would be tempted to go on if I knew the offer would be £50,000.

2. Exactly the same situation, but replace £250,000 with £500,000.
Think i'd no deal.

3. Exactly the same situation as 2, but with guaranteed offers at 4-box and 3-box.
Definite no deal and take the risk.

4. The same situation as 3, but there is no 5-box offer guarantee.
Leaning towards a no deal.

Personally I would be absolutely determined to go to the end so I would probably would go no deal unless the banker gave me an extremely high and generous offer. Only then I would have a think about it.

Deal 1, 2 and 4. No deal 3.