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KP

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 1:34 am    Author: KP    Post subject: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game
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1. The original Doreen situation with a twist. Seven blues and the quarter-million. The offer is £20,000 but if you have an all-blue round the following offer will be £50,000.
2. Exactly the same situation, but replace £250,000 with £500,000.
3. Exactly the same situation as 2, but with guaranteed offers at 4-box and 3-box.
4. The same situation as 3, but there is no 5-box offer guarantee.

I would Deal 1, Deal 2 because I'd still Deal £50,000 on a four blues/£500k finish, unsure on 3 because a £50k ND at 5-box would have huge reward for only a 20% chance of disaster, and Deal 4.

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James1978

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 12:16 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game

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I first read that after a drink and was confused. I'm sober now and am still confused! :)

I hinted at the first in the "What would you have done" thread. I'd still deal £20k on a £50k/blue coinflip with a 5/8 weighted coin.

Does number 4 mean you have to go 4 boxes before another offer? That's a definite deal too.

I don't particularly want to no-deal any of them!

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Skyline

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 1:03 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game
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Deal 4, maybe 1 and 2, but a definite NO DEAL on 3.

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rico7

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 1:42 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game
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1.The offer is £20,000 but if you have an all-blue round the following offer will be £50,000.

No deal, a 62.5% chance of a 150% increase has to be worth the risk!


2. Exactly the same situation, but replace £250,000 with £500,000.

Definitely no deal, 20K is far too low with half a million still in play!

3. Exactly the same situation as 2, but with guaranteed offers at 4-box and 3-box.

I would probably no deal and see what the 4-box offer was, anything 80K or over and I'm dealing!

4. The same situation as 3, but there is no 5-box offer guarantee.


I would deal this because too much risk of losing 50K.


Last edited by rico7 on Sat Feb 28, 2009 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 2:15 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game
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rico7 wrote:
1.The offer is £20,000 but if you have an all-blue round the following offer will be £50,000.

No deal, a 37.5% chance of a 150% increase has to be worth the risk!



The 37.5% chance is hitting the £250k. Not hitting it is a 62.5% chance (which I suppose makes your argument even stronger).

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rico7

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 2:48 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game
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Simon F wrote:
rico7 wrote:
1.The offer is £20,000 but if you have an all-blue round the following offer will be £50,000.

No deal, a 37.5% chance of a 150% increase has to be worth the risk!



The 37.5% chance is hitting the £250k. Not hitting it is a 62.5% chance (which I suppose makes your argument even stronger).


:smt105 Oops, that's what I meant to say thanks for the correction, I'll edit it now.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 3:35 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game
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By 4, I meant the Banker doesn't make a fixed guarantee at five-box, but it's a usual uncertain situation where you don't know what the offer will be! :)

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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greeny

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 5:00 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game

Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:14 pm
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I'd probably ND all of them, possibly deal 4, but I'd be tempted by only having to open one box before the next offer.


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Lewis246

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 5:21 pm    Author: Lewis246    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game

Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:52 pm
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Deal 1, 2 and 4. Probably no deal 3.


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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 5:25 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game

Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:30 pm
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I'd ND all of them. 20K is not too big to turn down.


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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2009 1:02 am    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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1. The original Doreen situation with a twist. Seven blues and the quarter-million. The offer is £20,000 but if you have an all-blue round the following offer will be £50,000.
I would most probably deal, but I would be tempted to go on if I knew the offer would be £50,000.

2. Exactly the same situation, but replace £250,000 with £500,000.
Think i'd no deal.

3. Exactly the same situation as 2, but with guaranteed offers at 4-box and 3-box.
Definite no deal and take the risk.

4. The same situation as 3, but there is no 5-box offer guarantee.
Leaning towards a no deal.


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cool-luke-18

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2009 9:03 pm    Author: cool-luke-18    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game

Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 10:57 pm
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Personally I would be absolutely determined to go to the end so I would probably would go no deal unless the banker gave me an extremely high and generous offer. Only then I would have a think about it.


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Tom

PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 4:20 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: What Would You Do variations based on Doreen's game

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
Location: Suffolk. That's as detailed as I'm going..
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Deal 1, 2 and 4. No deal 3.


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